Trading Desk

BTC1! bounced from our 58K-60K support as expected. It is now forming another ascending channel, just as it did in 25Q4 and 26Q1.

Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).

The rally in gold has saved 06181.HK for now. If you have followed my analysis of this stock over the past few months, you know that a large part of its valuation depends on the gold price.

"6181 has positioned itself as a luxury gold brand, with its products priced at a significant premium to competitors. Traditional luxury fashion houses command that premium through heritage, craftsmanship, and status. 6181 has failed to establish the first two. As gold falls, the frenzy fades, and the stock price tanks, it will likely struggle to sustain the third."

The current rally confirms that argument in reverse. Gold rose, the stock was saved, and the luxury narrative regained room to breathe. A sharp rise in gold gives 6181 cover to keep raising prices, revive the frenzy, and reinforce the perception of exclusivity.

Technical
Price has broken above the key descending trendline and is now backtesting it. For this breakout to develop into a trend reversal, the trendline must hold as support.

Brent is back in the 90s after trading in the 70s last week. As I have said in previous DeskNotes and Tactical Positioning, oil remains in a wide buy-low, sell-high range, with the 70s at the lower end, 100 as the upper bound, and 120 if things really get out of control. The rebound in oil has come with another move higher in yields.
The macro chain remains intact. Oil prices staying elevated for longer -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on gold, and vice versa. As mentioned, 4.4K is very strong resistance, and gold has reversed from this level over the past few hours. A sustained break above it would be the first confirmation of strength in precious metals in months.
Long-end yields are also back near the highs set around the last FOMC, when NQ1! reversed 3% within an hour as yields surged. If long-end yields take out those highs while XAUUSD clears 4.4K over the next day or two, it would signal a potential regime shift in which yields and precious metals rise in tandem.
That would be an ominous setup for equities, as real equity returns (nominal returns minus inflation) could move deep, deep, deep into negative territory over the coming years.

https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/844b0741-9a59-4965-9739-2dc04e313787View note

https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/5182aa6a-de48-41a7-9c7c-689e832d68b8View note

VIX is approaching the key 14.2 support. I expect VIX to bottom around this level.

US02Y U.S. yields across the curve have come off their highs as Trump TACO'd and Warsh held rates unchanged at the latest FOMC.

Unless the Middle East situation reverses, I expect inflation prints to keep edging higher and pull long-end yields with them. Warsh may be able to hold rates unchanged for a few more meetings, but I doubt he can keep doing so once the inventory cushion is gone. The longer he delays the next hike, the more violent the eventual repricing in yields will be.

Technical

US02Y has pulled back from 4.4% and is holding its ascending trendline. As long as the trendline holds, 4.4% remains in play. A break below the trendline puts 4% back in focus, followed by 3.8% if 4% fails.

HSITechnical

HSI has reclaimed 25.25K after rebounding from 22.55K, but the move was rejected below the broken ascending trendline. As long as 25.25K holds, another test of the trendline remains in play. A sustained move above it would put 27.29K back in play, while a sustained break below 25.25K would reopen 22.55K.

XAGUSDTechnical

Silver is now testing its long-term descending trendline around 64-65. A sustained reclaim would open the door to further upside. A rejection would keep the descending trendline intact. A sustained break below the ascending trendline would put 48 back in play.

NKD1!Technical: Nikkei reclaimed 63.8K following the rebound in U.S. equities. As long as 63.8K holds, a retest of the broken trendline remains in play, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A sustained break below 63.8K would reopen the downside.

MSFT In Tactical Positioning | Week of 04.13, I flagged a potential double bottom in MSFT, the inverse of the bearish double top around last November's highs that had preceded its 40% decline. MSFT bounced forcefully from there as expected. When price retested the lows in late June, I marked the horizontal support as the final defense and said MSFT should bounce from that level.

Technical

MSFT has closed above 465 resistance. As long as 465 holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below 465 puts 395 back in play.

601899Technical

As long as price remains above the ascending trendline and horizontal support around 32, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below the trendline and 32.4 puts 25 back in play. If gold fails to break above 4.4K, 601899 should be dragged back below 32.

USDJPY The latest intervention has failed to produce a sustained trend change in USDJPY. For intervention to have a lasting effect, it must force a self-reinforcing unwind. MoF and the U.S. Treasury need to buy yen aggressively enough to force yen shorts to cover at meaningful losses, with that forced buying feeding the next leg lower in USDJPY.

Unless that happens, the path of least resistance remains higher for USDJPY. The fundamentals behind USDJPY still hinge almost entirely on the Iran situation, where I see no progress.

Technical

USDJPY tested 155.55 but failed to close below this key level. As long as 155.55 holds, a move back above the trendline puts 160.8 back in play, followed by 162.6. A sustained break below 155.55 is still required to reopen the downside.

BZ1! Still, there has been no real breakthrough in the Middle East. Iran and Oman have moved a temporary Hormuz arrangement into draft form, but nothing has been finalized, the core disputes remain unresolved, and traffic through the Strait is still a fraction of normal. The only constant is another conflicting headline or unverified claim from one side or the other every 15 minutes.

You are probably tired of reading the same Iran analysis from me, so I will skip the full update this week. For newer readers, I have covered this setup extensively in Tactical Positioning every week for the past four months. You can find the previous posts by scrolling down the blog.

The SPR is still being drained aggressively, marking the 19th consecutive weekly draw. The stockpile has fallen by 110.6m barrels since March 20. SPR releases are still helping keep crude contained, but they do not resolve Hormuz. Unless a peace deal is reached, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Technical

There are no other meaningful fixed technical levels because daily moves are dictated by headlines. The only thresholds that matter are the 70s on the downside and 100-120 on the upside. Below the 70s, the likelihood of escalation rises sharply. Above 100, and especially above 120, the odds of another TACO increase dramatically. Without a meaningful development in the Middle East, the tape should remain inside the channel and stay in sell-high, buy-low mode.

GDX rallied roughly 20% in a single week as gold surged from 4K toward 4.4K resistance. GDX and several major gold-mining stocks are front-running gold, which is a constructive signal. If gold confirms a break above 4.4K, GDX is likely to clear 92.44 as well.

Technical

As long as price holds above the ascending trendline, 92.44 remains in play. A sustained move above 92.44 would open further upside. A move back below the ascending trendline would put 79.15 back in play, while a sustained break below 79.15 would reopen 70.76.

US30YTechnical

US30Y has pulled back to 5.2% after breaking above it. As long as 5.2% holds, 5.3% remains in play. A sustained break below 5.2% puts the ascending trendline back in focus.

NIFTYTechnical: NIFTY has reclaimed 24.3K after holding the ascending trendline on a backtest. The path of least resistance remains to the upside as long as 24.3K holds. A break back below 24.3K would put the ascending trendline back in play. A sustained break below the trendline would shift focus to 22.1K-22K.

US10YTechnical

US10Y remains above the broken multi-year descending trendline. Holding above that line keeps the breakout active, while a sustained move back below it invalidates the break.

HTI1! The bounce I expected in HK equities has continued to play out. In Tactical Positioning | Week of 06.29, I said a bounce from HTI and HSI was likely after both reached major support. The tape has improved materially since then.

Technical

HTI has moved back above the descending trendline and reclaimed 4.74K. As long as 4.74K holds, 5.14K remains in play. A sustained break below 4.74K would put the broken trendline back in play, followed by 4.25K and 4.2K if weakness continues.

NVDATechnical: NVDA bounced from the ascending trendline and is now moving back toward the upper boundary. As long as the trendline holds, the upper boundary remains in play. A sustained break below the trendline would put 167 back in play, while a sustained break below 167 would reopen the downside.

CL1!Technical: WTI is showing a similar structure.

Z1!Technical: FTSE remains above the ascending trendline. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below it opens more downside.

MAGSTechnical: MAGS has rebounded from the ascending trendline and is now testing the descending trendline. A sustained break above the descending trendline opens further upside, while another rejection puts the ascending trendline back in play.

XAUUSD Excerpt from desknote 08.05 on "If you have followed our charts closely, you know that 3.9-4.0K has been a solid support area for the past two months, so this rally is not surprising. The ideal scenario where gold being dumped to 3.7-3.8K did not materialize as oil cooled and yields came off their highs. For traders riding the rally, trail your stops. 4K is very likely the low, although there remains a small chance of a retest of 4K if Trump escalates. For this rally to evolve from a tactical bounce off support into a genuine bullish trend reversal and open the door to further upside, gold still needs to reclaim 4.4K Silver also needs to reclaim 64-65."

I expect gold and silver to clear their respective resistance levels at roughly the same time if the move resolves higher. As I wrote in Tactical Positioning | Week of 08.03, "My long-term view on gold has not changed. I still expect gold to outperform most asset classes over the next few years, with massive upside from here." Gold was trading around 4k at that time.

Technical

The first breakout came on July 21, when gold broke above the short-term descending trendline. After backtesting 4K, it took off and is now facing a major confluence at 4.4K, where the horizontal resistance from the beginning of the year meets the major ascending trendline from the 2025 rally. A sustained break above 4.4K would confirm the bullish trend reversal and open the door to further upside. A rejection at 4.4K would keep the confluence resistance intact and leave another test of 4K in play. A sustained break below 4K would put 3.9K back in focus.