• ...Price charts are not design diagrams...
• ...Real money on the line matters far more than empty words....
• ...You should all set alert notifications above 100...
• ...Let it snowball; the core of the ball determines its ceiling...
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Zero. The Line-Drawing Skill & Beginner's Handbook Will Soon Resume Updates
Friends keep asking how to draw the lines: Bull Trigger, Bear Trigger, Target, Stop. It's not that I won't explain this; it's that I can't.
Behind the lines are tens of thousands of hours of continuous accumulation over years,View noteI will explain in detail, in the beginner series, the more useful things that can be explained, but these are only the “forms”: hundreds of setups, more basic patterns and the complex patterns built on them, as well as multiple timeframes and market context. Which one to use and when is very complex; much of the time it really is a matter of feel for the market (after training yourself like a machine).
Without internal mastery, using techniques alone will only lead you astray; if you lose money, you'll blame me too.
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Price charts are not design diagrams, and the actual market at any given moment is not one of those “perfect examples” carefully selected by authors. Most of the time, you won't find anything called a perfect setup.Friends who have studied Computational Formalization & Pattern Recognition should know that a fit of 60% is already a very good result, while 70%-80% are rare opportunities that come along only by chance. This is also why I am very cautious about each explanation and the introduction of new material (for example, a flag breakout).
Without accumulated experience and a deeper, more comprehensive understanding of the market, you will most likely only partly understand things, or even misuse them. More importantly, you need to keep observing the market, building your own edge, and testing it.
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The Beginner's Handbook series will soon resume updates
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Compounding is not just the compounding of principal and profits; it is also the compounding of your own abilities.
Do things that build and grow over time.
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One. Macro Trading Positioning
Chart: Macro Drivers Positioning Map
Macro-theme logic trade shifts (as of 260809)
A trading week driven by metals, and another week of continued rebounds in equities.
Macro-theme logic trade shifts (as of 260809)
Red indicates consensus short, green indicates consensus long, and gray indicates no consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
Whether long or short, both began to resume their own trends this week, emerging from the gloom of the mostly gray, directionless state that had prevailed over the previous month. Both bulls and bears can make money; what worries us is disorderly market action or no movement at all. Clearly, now is the time to make a move.
Chart: Real Financial Conditions (market pricing) overlaid with the Precious Metals, Technology, and Alternative Assets Composites
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 260809)
The Real Financial Conditions chart is not very important when the market is trending, but it matters a great deal when there is divergence or the market is near a key turning point. That is because it does not show the decisions themselves, but rather how genuinely smart money is pricing things from a market perspective—in other words, how the market thinks policymakers will act.This pricing began moving further toward easing around two weeks ago, when the prevailing monetary narrative was broadly pessimistic. It is hard to say whether those voicing pessimistic narratives were the same people who were actually putting money behind optimistic positions. In any case, bets backed by real money matter far more than mere words.
Gold, technology, and equities in the major markets have all followed suit and risen.
The only market that has not followed along is crypto. This is highly unusual, so please keep an eye on it yourselves.
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Two. Technology Trades
Chart: The tech bellwether, the KOSPI, broke down and moved lower as expected
KOSPI(Daily chart, as of 260809),Shorts: see Profit Taking for the profit-taking level
Still in short territory; for short profit-taking, see the price at PT.
SK Hynix (daily chart, as of 260809),Shorts: see Profit Taking for the profit-taking level
Likewise, it remains in short territory. Take profit at PT; it has halved since entry.
Attentive readers may have noticed that the charts in the weekly report have been visually adjusted. This is because my traditional Trade Log is no longer quite suitable in the current, more stringent regulatory environment, while simply drawing lines does not give new readers a consistent way to understand the charts. So although this approach is more cumbersome to put together (it requires a lot of manual input), it was worth the effort if it makes things easier on the eyes.
I hope you like it.
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SOXX(Daily chart, as of 260809)
SOXX has moved back inside the purple box. The new structure is shown in the chart above, with SOXL attached.
Generally speaking, the Targets for leveraged short or long positions will have a different structure from the underlying asset itself. This is related to the risk-reward ratio: what looks like the same Entry actually involves completely different risks. This is also why I do not recommend that people trade leveraged instruments.
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260809)
The Bull Trigger was activated intraday on Friday. This Trigger came after most mainland technology proxies had already turned bullish earlier in the week. In other words, the index structure is now actually lagging behind the core proxies. If the trigger leads to another rise toward around T1, it will also be a case of a rally with divergence.
..
Finally, here is the promised Tech Monitor for everyone(This section will not be updated indefinitely)：
Chart: Mainland China Technology Trades, Basket as an Asset
Daily chart, as of 260809
The color indicates the overall long or short direction of Basket as an Asset. The unrealized profit/loss shown in the chart reflects the current position direction of the basket. “B” below is short for Bars, meaning the number of trading days the current long or short direction has persisted. The percentage in the upper-right corner indicates the number of Basket constituents held long.
Note: Having more than 50% of Basket constituents held long does not necessarily mean Basket as an Asset itself has turned long; likewise, having more than 50% of its constituents held short does not necessarily mean Basket as an Asset itself has turned short.
Figure: Global technology trading, core micro proxies
Daily chart, as of 260809
The color indicates the micro proxy’s own long or short direction. The unrealized profit/loss shown in the chart reflects the current position direction. “D” in the chart is short for Days, meaning the number of trading days the current long or short direction has persisted.
Figure: Effectiveness of the basket long-short strategy over the past three years
Daily chart, as of 260802
Further elaboration: 1)View note，2）View note，3）View note
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The reason a turn to long in the core technology proxy does not count as a genuinely good entry point is clear:
1) The position structure is still in a downtrend zone
2) Buyback trades tend to involve many gaps. After a gap higher, it is easy to enter and immediately have an unrealized loss
3) The upside reward-to-risk potential is far worse than before
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SNDK(Daily chart, as of 260809) In an unrealized-loss position
Taking SNDK as an example should make this quite clear. Once the uptrend ends, the overall dashboard is basically in short territory. If only the structure itself turns long, and that turn is caused by a gap-up in a buyback move, it is easy to enter and immediately have an unrealized loss. Draw your own conclusions.
My strategy has always run automatically because, to a certain extent, the effort required to stop it is greater than the effort of simply letting it continue running. It is a very low-return use of effort, so I treat it as a necessary cost of staying in the market.
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For you, if you have the time and many good opportunities to choose from, you should really focus first on those with better reward-to-risk potential.
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Three. Global equities
Figure: Positioning chart
Unusual moves in global equity thematic trades (Structure), as of 260809
Unusual moves in global equity thematic trades (Economic), as of 260809
Resource trades, as of 260809
Red indicates consensus short, green indicates consensus long, and gray indicates no consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
SWEB(Daily chart, as of 260802),Continue raising the take-profit level for longs
After KWEB triggers T1, price movement stalls and the rising channel turns into range trading. For this kind of trade, the take-profit level should be placed at the bottom of the range. How do we identify the range? In the situation shown above, the bottom of the new range is actually the top of the previous trading pattern, namely the candle at 7.16. If buyers and sellers accept prices within the new range, price should not return to its previous state.
That's the logic of If: if it is accepted, we shouldn't go back. If we do, then we surrender.
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IV. U.S. Equity Market
SPX(Daily chart, as of 260809)
SPX has broken above the Bull Trigger previously set in Planet's weekly newsletter. It has been two months since we 6.3 turned from bullish to bearish on SPX, and the price has been firmly and precisely held back by the bull-bear line the whole time.
I marked the previous short entry with a panda head and the switch to bullish with a big yellow bull. I originally wanted to use a bull's head, but since they were both white, I found it a little hard to see, so I used the big yellow bull instead. Likewise, the pattern is range – breakout channel – range, except this breakout channel is relatively narrow.
PT marks the lowest point reached in the selloff after the breakout. Those who didn't believe in the breakout failed here, so unless this level breaks, new bears won't dare enter. It is natural support for the price.
A little calf from Nepal that the kids at home bought, bringing bullish energy to everyone.
Figure: Positioning chart
Red indicates consensus short, green indicates consensus long, and gray indicates no consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
Top performers over the past week (as of 260809)
A week led by resource stocks.In addition, for the risk-rebound trade, MEME, which we selected last week, is the core proxy. This is different from leveraged long positions: we chose it because it takes on almost the same risk while offering relatively greater excess returns.
MEME(Daily chart, as of 260809)
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Chart: US Momentum Environment
Above the green line is a strong-momentum backdrop; above the yellow line is where we can take a shot. A break below the red line puts us at a disadvantage, and the market will tend toward random fluctuations (as of 260809).
It has rebounded above the yellow line.
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V. Foreign Exchange: Korean Won, U.S. Dollar, Japanese Yen
Continuing to track the Korean won as a cross-check.
A decline in the Korean won could create broader cross-asset issues (for details, seeWeekly newsletter 260614）
USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 260802) Continue moving the short take-profit level.
The short trade in USDKRW has developed a very clear trend over the past two weeks since the weekly newsletter was published, and has already broken below the previous range low (see the dashed line extending from March in the chart). For the take-profit level, move PT above the previous low (the dashed-line level), as shown in the chart above.
Source:26-08-02 Weekly Wrap by Ari
Besides the short trade, last week we also discussed how the Korean won and the Korean index would shift from moving in the same direction to moving in opposite directions. The week's trading did indeed show them moving in opposite directions (and then stalling).
USDKRW (daily chart, as of 260802), overlaid with KOSPI
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Chart: U.S. Dollar Index
DXY(Daily chart, as of 260802)
For many people, whether DXY stays below the short PT or breaks above it is a significant matter.Whether you trade equities, bonds, currencies, or commodities, you should set up alerts above the current 100 level.
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USDJPY(Daily chart, as of 260809)
For those who placed limit orders on USD/JPY at structural levels after reading our weekly newsletter two weeks ago, in order to short the tail event, As a friendly follow-up: the price is hovering around T1. You can make your own plans for taking profits based on the Target and PT prices.
Chart:《Ari’s Weekly Wrap 260727》
Chart: FX Trading Positioning
Red indicates consensus short, green indicates consensus long, and gray indicates no consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
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Six. China Market
Chart: Pair Trades and Narrative Trades
Pair-trading situation (daily chart, as of 260809)
The lines trending upward are currencies versus industrials (precious metals versus industrial metals), along with a rebound in a group of tech stocks.
Narrative-trading situation (daily chart, as of 260809)
The two lines describe the same thing—in fact, they are the two main themes repeatedly mentioned on Planet: 1) resources, 2) technology;The main themes are now back in favor.
Positive wave in gold and silver trading (daily chart, as of 260809)
Figure: Positioning chart
Red indicates consensus short, green indicates consensus long, and gray indicates no consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
You can make money in both bull and bear markets. The market where you cannot make money is one without logic. Without logic, prices cannot unfold naturally; without a natural unfolding, there is no trend. Profits come only from smooth trends, whether long or short.
Monitoring Basket moves (Top/Bottom 10) (1M, as of 260809)
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In addition to the regular positioning-chart updates, we will also share some top-down trading updates each week.
Chart: Looking at complex things simply from the top down
Chart: About the top-down approach, originally posted inHong Kong Dragon (AHong Kong Trading Planet)
Chart: Tungsten hexafluoride Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
Many things are hard to see clearly from the bottom up, but looking at them from the top down is different.
Complex things become clear and simple.
Chart: Electronic Chemicals Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
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Chart: CCL Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
A clear pennant breakout...
For compliance reasons, we are temporarily unable to provide the constituents and weightings of the Basket. However, since it cannot be traded and this does not involve a recommendation, we can set this aside and leave the Trade Log here for your reference.
Chart: Indium Phosphide Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
The same clear structure.
Chart: Solder Paste Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
Chart: Silver Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
Chart: Physical AI Basket (daily chart, as of 260809)
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Seven. Precious Metals
Chart: Gold
XAUUSD(Daily chart, as of 260809)
Gold: still holding a long position.
GDX(Daily chart, as of 260809), up approximately +~20% since Planet turned bullish
On gold and silver trading, 1) our entry point marked the start of the expansion in volatility; 2) I posted again to remind everyone of the gold and silver breakout just hours before the resistance line was breached...
The full content is archived on Planet.
The fundamentals of precious metals were discussed in depth in the weekly newsletters from the previous two weeks, so I won't repeat them here. Instead, I'll add a few points about the technical structure.
Chart:“The First Golden Line in Precious Metals &An Explanation of the Overall Table Selection”
I've discussed this a few times before, but I'd like to go over it again for those who have recently joined. What I write here is important, and the timing of publication is equally important. Every post is carefully considered; in fact, many things are written and then deleted because the timing isn't right.
At least for me, I don't do things without a purpose. So when I discuss something, please pay attention right away or set relevant price alerts. Ideally, read articles or posts as soon as possible (try not to leave them until the next day). Even a quick read is fine—you can go back and study them carefully later—but make sure you read them once. If a price is involved, set your own alerts.
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In addition, I want to say a little more about target prices.Please finish reading this section, then go back to the beginning of this issue's weekly newsletter and read my explanation of Entry, Stop, and Target again!
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The chart below shows GDX's trading on Friday; the red line is the #T1 target price previously given on Planet:
GDX (minute chart, as of 260809)
On the one-minute chart, you can clearly see the tussle between bulls and bears across the entire market during the trading day. At the center of this battle is the target price we gave when we turned bullish on gold miners ETF (14 days ago). It is a kind of long-distance campaign, like directing operations from behind the lines. It may look like fortune-telling, but it isn’t: price movements themselves leave clues, and we simply do our best to uncover and follow them.
I’ll explain the more concrete details in a beginner’s guide later on. But don’t assume that reading it will make you invincible. The reason is simple: chart patterns are a kind of regularity that I—and countless predecessors—have distilled from tens of thousands, even hundreds of thousands, of hours of accumulated experience. But 1) such regularities are not laws, and in fact cannot really be handled mathematically; 2) the same pattern can look completely different to you depending on whether you have studied market prices for a year, ten years, or twenty years. In other words, the results of these regularities still depend on what lies beneath the iceberg to bring them about; what a chart pattern can convey is only the tip of the iceberg. This is the core reason why trading knowledge is often passed down through very narrow channels. Compared with the formal systems of schools, it is more often a lifelong master-apprentice relationship. If you look at those who have succeeded, it is clear which system they came from.
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I’ve wandered a bit off topic.In short, the key here is this: whether it is the bulk of the mountain beneath the iceberg’s tip or the roots that reach deep into the soil beneath the leaves and flowers, if you truly aspire to follow this path, what you should do is not look at all kinds of tips or flit from flower to flower. After going around in circles like that, you will most likely end up achieving nothing and instead become hopelessly confused.Paying attention to patterns is useless. It’s like a four-quadrant diagram of the planets: anyone can draw one, but can everyone use it? Hard to say. Patterns are not important; they are just a way of presenting things. The underlying essence matters much more. A difference of a hair’s breadth can mean a thousand miles.
What you need to work hard at is finding something you can truly settle down and delve into.
Those years of accumulation, that time, cannot be replaced.
Build your own iceberg.
Settle down and build your own iceberg. The key to compounding is having a solid foundation. It’s like rolling a snowball: the core determines how big it can get. If, at the start, you only loosely pack the snow together, then as the outer layers grow thicker, the stress on the flaws inside increases, and eventually it can split apart along the cracks.
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Chart: Silver
XAGUSD(Daily chart, as of 260809)
Trading precious metals is the same.
SIL(Daily chart, as of 260809)
Keep an eye on the structure yourself.
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Gold miners basket vs. gold price (daily chart, as of 260809)
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Eight. Alternative assets
Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260809)
To turn bullish again, the price needs to break above the white line.
Of course, the best way to go long on the right-hand side is still to wait for momentum to turn positive.
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Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations of your jurisdiction and allocate personal assets within the bounds of applicable rules. This content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities (El Niño): cocoa, coffee, soybeans, raw sugar, and rice
Chart: Cocoa; after turning bullish again, the price moved up and down as expected.
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260809)
Long-short-long-short-turn bullish again: the point of swing trading is to keep up with all abnormal price movements as much as possible. An abnormal movement is simply a matter of common-sense if-then logic: if prices keep rising or falling, where should they not go? If they do go there, then...
This is about the risk-reward ratio, not probability, although sometimes our win rate is not naturally low either. But paying attention to anomalies is indeed our habit. Here, the price reached a level it should not have reached if it were to keep falling, so we turned bullish again—even if it might end in a loss. Make of that what you will.
Often, stop-losses are simply a cost of doing business.
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Of course, those three passages above were written last week. They won’t end in a loss now: after we turned bullish, prices rose as expected this week, and the exit level has now moved from SL to PT.
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Chart: Coffee breaks above the upper boundary
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260809)
The bottom-pattern reversal trade mentioned in the previous newsletter is still stalled at T2. We’re not moving the take-profit level for now. Unless there is unusual trading, we basically won’t make any changes before the price touches T3.
Chart: Soybeans turn from bullish to bearish
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260809)
Still holding the short position.
Chart: Raw sugar breaks out strongly
Keep understanding the power of price.The chart below is from last week’s newsletter. In fact, we drew this structure several weeks ago. Once it was drawn, the rest was simple: sitting well and waiting for the price to validate our view. This week, a strong breakout appeared as expected, and we entered a long position according to plan.
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Wrap by Ari
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260809)
A key price is the true starting point of an expansion in volatility. News, fundamentals, and research all come after us. In fact, if you look at the news now, including commentary from some institutions, it’s all very well written and makes a lot of sense. But…Following price means you can’t make money; you can only be right.
All historical content is archived on Planet; this isn’t astrology!
Chart: Wheat
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260809)
After turning short last week, prices continued to fall this week, and we’re still holding the short position.
Ten. Crude oil-related
BRN(Daily chart, as of 260809)
Bulls and pandas; review it yourself.
If you haven’t read this piece, remember to go read it.
I’m grateful for everyone’s kind regard, but I’m not important, nor do I have any intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep my head down; Planet is for our internal content, which we try not to share externally.
Thank you all here. I’m grateful to all of you.
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(End of article)
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