Weekend scenario map: growth, inflation, and the dollar

The cross-asset reaction to Treasury's expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks was immediate. Long-end yields fell sharply, DXY dumped, USDJPY faded, and XAUUSD, XAGUSD, and B** rallied.
As I have said repeatedly, Trump cares about only four things: 1) equity-market performance; 2) inflation prints; 3) Treasury yields; and 4) approval ratings. Of the four, yields matter most. He has struggled to keep oil contained, and oil staying elevated for longer has continued to push inflation expectations and long-end yields higher. As the US30Y yield reached a new 20-year high, he was forced to have Bessent pull a TACO on long-end yields by expanding Treasury's long-end buyback support.
The move immediately relieved pressure on long-duration assets, but I would not mistake it for a change in the underlying trend. As we have seen repeatedly in USDJPY, temporary policy measures rarely reverse a fundamentally driven move. Reversing the rise in long-end yields would require either normalization through the Strait of Hormuz or a stringent budget. I see little prospect of either.
Gold delivered a decisive break above 4.4K as long-end yields and the dollar fell. The inverse relationship between long-end yields and precious metals remains intact. My concern that yields and precious metals might continue rising in tandem has not materialized, at least for now. Had that regime taken hold, real equity returns would have moved deeeeeep into negative territory. For gold bulls, I would prefer an entry on a pullback toward 4.4K, where the risk is clearly defined against the breakout level. Silver also bounced from our 63 support.
On equities, SPX retraced from the ascending resistance line as expected, while NDX is still wrestling with the descending trendline. Bears need a decisive break below that line before the next leg lower can develop. Otherwise, NQ could again lead a broader equity-market bounce.
BTC1! also responded strongly to the long-bond rally, bouncing from the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

DX1!

XAUUSD has pulled back below 4.4K, the resistance I flagged in last week's Tactical Positioning. My tactical long from the FOMC low was stopped out on a trailing stop for a nice profit. As warned, the sharp rise in yields has weighed on precious metals.

Gold's next major leg higher begins when it breaks its inverse relationship with yields and the dollar. We are not there yet. Silver has remained range-bound since early August.

Given the technical setup across precious metals, yields and oil, Trump has every incentive to deliver a series of TACOs ahead of the midterms to tame oil and yields. If he does, that should help gold and silver break above 4.4K and 69, respectively.

Aside from heavily manipulated oil futures prices, inflation prints also matter for precious metals. Next week's PCE release on September 30 is the one to watch.