• ...yields themselves still want to move higher; this is a very unusual price signal...
• ...only technology (AI) trades are fundamentally driven...
• ...in ten days, there will be an important date...
• ...the entire agricultural sector is beginning to show signs of potential supply shortages and an upward price structure...
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I. Macroeconomic Trading Positioning
Figure: Macro Drivers positioning chart
Macroeconomic theme-driven trading anomalies (as of 260816)
Precious metals trading remains at the top of global asset anomalies, but internal divergence has emerged (gold, SIL, and GDX have hit our take-profit prices). Meanwhile, CPI has posted relatively moderate data for the second consecutive month, and PPI also came in below expectations. Taken together, these two factors mean the market can now estimate PCE fairly well. According to the Cleveland Fed's forecast, PCE is around 3.5% year over year. Although this is clearly above the Fed's target, it has not worsened further and remains roughly at the level of the past few months.
Under normal market logic, inflation coming in slightly better than expected should cause bond yields to fall;
After the data were released, the market did initially price in a lower probability of a Fed rate hike, and yields fell accordingly. But this move was quickly and completely reversed, and yields rose again. 7-month retail sales were also far weaker than expected, indicating economic weakness, The problem is that yields likewise fell only briefly after the data were released, then immediately rebounded。Last month's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly showed a decline in jobs, also leading the market to question whether the labor market was as strong as previously thought. Yields then also fell in a knee-jerk reaction, but soon recouped all their losses. Taken together, these reactions The fairly clear conclusion is that even when inflation is below market expectations and the economy may be weaker than expected, yields themselves still want to move higher. This is a very unusual price signal.
US10YIn additionXAUUSD(as of 260816)
After PPI came in weak on Thursday, bonds briefly tried to rebound, but buying could not be sustained. TLT closed at its lowest level year to date, continuing its slow bleed:
TLT (minute chart, as of 260816)
Retail sales data need to be considered alongside what's happening on the mainland (it will be clearer after the discussion below). In both the United States and China, consumers are no longer the main drivers of current inflation. The real drivers of the economy and inflationary pressure are capital expenditures, especially large-scale investment related to AI;
Excluding this AI spending, the overall economy is actually cooling significantly. This is an undeniable fact.I've been saying since the beginning of the year that today, only technology (AI) trades are fundamentally driven Perhaps precious-metals miners qualify to some extent, but there is no fundamental viability across a broad range of industries outside technology. Expecting something else to emerge out of nowhere and take the baton is simply unrealistic.The only main themes are technology and resources; at least as far as the eye can see, there is nothing else, nor will there be.
If technology stocks cannot attract buying support, the entire market will fall along with them.
Meanwhile, the sharp rise in long-term US yields on Friday was driven to a large extent by overseas markets. Long-term yields overseas rose significantly more than those in the US that day, and their moves also came earlier:
US30YIn additionFR30YIn additionDE30Y(as of 260816)
Pricing is still being driven by the Iran shock. Crude oil prices have been relatively stable on the surface, but consumers and inflation indexes are exposed not to crude oil itself, but to refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. Declining refining capacity is pushing up prices for these products, which is the core source of uncertainty:
Gasoline crack spread (black line) alongside the gasoline/crude oil relative value ratio (blue line) (as of 260816)
Since 2026, gasoline in 10 2026 has continued to strengthen relative to crude oil for the same month in WTI. The gasoline crack spread has widened to around 40.5 dollars per barrel, while the gasoline/crude oil relative value ratio has risen by around 17.5% since the start of the year, indicating that refined products are clearly outperforming crude oil in pricing.
...
Chart:《26-08-02 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap》
The first framework for explaining the rise in long-term yields is to break nominal yields down into inflation compensation and real yields. Signals from 30-year inflation swaps or 30-year TIPS suggest that long-term inflation expectations have remained relatively stable, so the market is not worried about long-term inflation; what has actually risen is real yields, meaning investors are demanding a higher real return before they are willing to hold long-term bonds. The 30-year TIPS real yield is around 3%, which is already quite attractive, but that may also be the level needed for the market to achieve supply-demand balance.
The second framework is the term premium: investors demand extra compensation for uncertainty about the future policy path. The market is increasingly uncertain about how the Fed will respond over the coming decades, and therefore requires higher yields as protection. Warsh has publicly said he is unwilling to explain how the Fed will respond, and has also discussed changing an inflation target that the Fed has failed to achieve for many years. These remarks naturally increase policy uncertainty and the term premium, pushing long-term yields higher.
Chart:《26-08-02 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap》
His experience working with Stanley Druckenmiller will probably shape Warsh to some extent into a more trader-like Fed chair. I have always thought this is why many people have not understood him, while we can.In other words, his decisions are more likely to follow market and economic developments rather than begin with a subjective position—that is what economists do.
...
At this point, For the bond market to truly catch its breath, the stock market may first need to run into trouble.If the AI bubble bursts for some reason, or the stock market suffers another shock, funds may ultimately shift into safe-haven assets. The market may also price in more Fed rate cuts and weaker economic growth as a result of negative wealth effects, restoring demand for bonds.
Ten days from now will be an important date. If the market correctly understands the message from Jackson Hole and believes that the Fed really has inflation under control, bonds could rally from there; if policy communication is mishandled and the market interprets it negatively, the problem will become more serious.
Note: The high yield at this week's US 30-year Treasury auction was the highest since 2001, making it important to review bond yields around the turn of the millennium and their normalization process in this context.
Red indicates broadly bearish positioning, green broadly bullish positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260816)
Chart: Real Financial Conditions (market pricing) alongside the Precious Metals, Technology, and Alternative Assets composites
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 260816)
After the real financial conditions we monitor reached a turning point, precious metals, equities, and technology all subsequently turned higher and moved up, but Crypto has still not caught up as of now.
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Two. Technology trades
Chart: The Korean tech leader turns bullish
KOSPI(Daily chart, as of 260816)
The Korean index turned bullish during the week. The Stop Loss price for the long position is shown in the chart. If it does not fall below that level, those who were previously trading tech can feel more at ease. Momentum is showing signs of bottoming, and the beauty-contest indicator is also tending to improve. If both turn positive within the month, the next upward move after the pullback will officially begin.
SOXX(Daily chart, as of 260816)
Beyond the Korean index, the leader, the US SOXX has remained firmly inside the purple box since returning to it. Momentum has begun to turn upward again, and structurally it has shifted from SL last week to PT.
STAR Market 50 (Daily chart, as of 260809)
The third leader is also in bullish territory. In other words, the technology giants of China, the US and South Korea have now all returned to bullish territory; this return came after the vast majority of micro proxies had turned bullish (see Tech Monitor). This has two implications: 1) the likelihood of rising again is now greater than that of a continued breakdown and sharp decline; 2) compared with the first round of gains that began at the end of 3, this time there will be divergence at the level of micro proxies. You can keep an eye on the Monitor panel yourselves. In addition, to help everyone execute trades more effectively, the US-market dataset has been expanded from 1000 to 2000, and the number limit on the China-US ETF in the cross-market section will also be removed, making it easier to assess conditions comprehensively and make informed decisions about entering and exiting positions.
The gains of 5D in the technology proxy monitor (Daily chart, as of 260816) clearly show the divergence in the covering trade Divergence
...
On the model side, revenue growth at frontier labs is likely to enter a period of slowdown. The valuations that have brought new companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic close to one trillion dollars, putting them among the world’s largest companies, depend to a great extent on unprecedented revenue growth. Claude Code once drove a huge wave of growth. Although coding capabilities continue to improve and users are engaging more deeply with the product, the breadth of applications has not expanded in tandem, so the revenue growth rate may begin to decline.
Enterprise adoption remains relatively narrow, and management is becoming stricter. At first, many companies allowed employees to use tools such as Claude Code with almost no apparent restrictions. Now they are beginning to set budgets and try cheaper, near-frontier-level competing open-weight models. At the same time, a tightening regulatory environment may slow the release of new models. Although the depth of model use in areas such as coding and mathematics continues to increase, overall breadth of use remains limited and is not growing exponentially. These factors could all bring the previous exceptionally rapid revenue growth to an end.
In 2025, a total of 5670 hundred million dollars flowed into the AI ecosystem, of which 62% came from operating cash flow generated by companies within the ecosystem, while funding from outside the ecosystem amounted to about 2140 hundred million dollars. In 2026, around 6430 hundred million dollars of capital will be needed. Although financing in the first half of the year has already covered some of this, more funding will still be required in the second half. By the following year, funding needs could reach 1 trillion dollars. This is not additional investment beyond what the current stock market expects; it is the capital required to deliver on the market’s existing valuations.
According to Bridgewater’s tracking, OpenAI’s enormous cash burn could leave it out of cash in the first quarter of 2027. The company will probably be able to raise new funds, but the method of financing matters: whether it can do so at a valuation close to its original expectations, IPO, depends on revenue growth, expenses and other challenges. If slowing revenue, intensifying competition, falling Token prices, approaching regulation and capital needs all come together, the result could be unfavorable.
The price structures of some technology-related baskets will be shown in the mainland-China section; scroll down to see them.
...
Finally, here is the Tech Monitor promised to you all(This section will not be updated indefinitely)：
Chart: Mainland China technology trades, Basket as an Asset
Daily chart, as of 260816
The color indicates the overall bullish or bearish direction of Basket as an Asset. The floating profit shown in the chart reflects the current position direction of the basket. The B below is short for Bars, indicating how many trading days the current bullish or bearish direction has persisted. The % in the upper-right corner shows the number of basket constituents held long.
Note: More than 50% of the basket constituents being held long does not necessarily mean that Basket as an Asset itself has turned bullish; more than 50% of the constituents being held short does not necessarily mean that Basket as an Asset itself has turned bearish.
Chart: Global technology trades, core micro proxies
Daily chart, as of 260816
The color indicates the bullish or bearish direction of the micro proxy itself. The floating profit shown in the chart reflects the profit on the current position. D in the chart is short for Days, indicating how many trading days the current bullish or bearish direction has persisted.
Chart: Three-year effectiveness of the basket long-short strategy
Daily chart, as of 260802
Additional elaboration: 1)View note，2）View note，3）View note
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III. Global Equities
Figure: Positioning map
Anomalies in global equity structural trading themes (Structure) (as of 260816)
Anomalies in global equity structural trading themes (Economic) (as of 260816)
Tech trading returns to a key level (as of 260816)
Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260809)
KWEB(Daily chart, as of 260816),Turned bearish from bullish; exited to take profits
Chart:《26-08-09 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap》
Last week, using KWEB as an example, I explained what it means to go somewhere you shouldn’t. This week, after breaking below that level, it kept moving lower. Review it for yourself to understand.I’m not saying I can predict what will happen, or that I’m necessarily right. It’s just that, as individual market participants, we’re on the passive side when it comes to information, capital, and pricing power. So, at least for me, I have no other choice: I don’t want to use the one life I have to go down with someone else.
My views may not be right; they simply reflect my style and choices. Being different from me doesn’t mean either of us is wrong. You can make money going long or short, and in all sorts of ways. The key is finding what suits you.
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IV. U.S. Equity Market
It’s the midsummer trading lull, but the S&P 500 Index has still hit a record high. Some market participants continue to chase higher and buy call options, betting that equities could make one final accelerated push to a peak. Options expiration is coming up next week, and the market may also pause for a few days around this time.
Trump wants to see a strong stock market before the midterm elections, so the related political narrative will also support equities. On that basis, the market environment will continue to favor buying dips.
SPX(Daily chart, as of 260816)
My view is unchanged. I’ll leave out what I wrote last week and won’t repeat it.
...
Figure: Positioning map
Red indicates broadly bearish positioning, green broadly bullish positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260816)
The key driver behind the U.S. session breaking back above the purple box and moving higher was not FOMO, but FIMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum), or strong earnings momentum. Also, some of you may have seen Xingzhi’s post during the week about the so-called Nasdaq valuation returning to a multi-year low:
Counterintuitively, semiconductors are indeed still trading at a lower valuation multiple than the market overall, while tech valuations are broadly in line with the market. So the current market environment cannot simply be compared with 1999–2000 or with 15 in the A-share market. The main feature of the bubble back then was that valuations kept spiraling out of control; valuation multiples today are, by and large, moving sideways.
There’s nothing wrong with looking at valuations. The issue is more likely to lie with credit. For those looking to short AI over the long term (Michael Burry, for example), the focus should be on the entire credit cycle.
Economic recessions are almost always caused by the bursting of credit bubbles, which then triggers a credit crunch. Therefore, whether AI capital expenditure is creating a new credit cycle is an issue that must be monitored continuously.
...
On this front, those without access to much first-hand data can watch small-cap stock prices, since small caps typically reflect recession or credit risks relatively early. But the Russell 2000 has also hit a record high. This is one indication that the economic and credit environment has not yet deteriorated significantly:
RTY1!(Daily chart, as of 260816)
...
Largest gains over the past week (as of 260816)
There are quite a few attempts to exercise.
MEME(Daily chart, as of 260816)
We are betting on proxies for an emotional reversal at Planet... This week, volatility expanded to the upside, with PT at the center of the trading range preceding the upside breakout—the level that should not be revisited if the move is to continue.
Chart: US Momentum Environment
Above the green line is a strong-momentum backdrop; above the yellow line, we can take a shot; below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market will tend toward random volatility (as of 260816).
Holding above the yellow line.
...
In addition, there is another pair trade to watch: long NASDAQ and short the Dow:
COT data show that S&P speculative positioning is at the 96th percentile of the past year, while the Dow is at the 99th percentile. However, NASDAQ is near zero, with approximately 2.5 ten-thousand new short contracts, bringing net shorts to around 3.5 ten thousand contracts. By comparison, about 9,000 new S&P shorts were added, while the Dow remains net long by approximately 6,000 contracts. NASDAQ shorts may partly be hedges: investors hold substantial semiconductor and Magnificent Seven exposure while shorting NASDAQ as a pair trade. At the end of 7, the market’s rise was driven mainly by megacap tech companies and Mag 7, but semiconductors did not participate in the subsequent rally. For the S&P to rise to 8,000 points, Mag 7 and big tech stocks will still need to attract buying again.
QQQ/DIA (daily chart, as of 260816)
The Dow is currently the most crowded major index and has the ugliest chart. Since the reversal day last Wednesday, it has consistently underperformed the other indices. All the indices initially rose after CPI was released, but the Dow then failed and closed flat, further confirming its relative weakness.
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Five. FX: Korean won, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen
USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 260816) Short-covering continues to move higher
The decline has stalled; PT marks where the stall began.
Chart: FX Trading Positioning
Red indicates broadly bearish positioning, green broadly bullish positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260816)
USDBRL broke out this week; you can keep an eye on it yourself.
USDBRL(Daily chart, as of 260816)
USDBRL overlaid with EWZ (daily chart, as of 260816)
Keep an eye on USDBRL and EWZ; both are at key levels. Subjectively, a reversal seems more likely. Brazil’s real yields are still around 6%–7%, and the market is paying too much attention to whether Lula can be elected again while overlooking the more fundamental economic system.
If there is a reversal, we will express that bet by going long EWZ. Don’t jump the gun.
...
EURJPY(Daily chart, as of 260816)
Another chart: those betting on an improvement in Japan can watch it closely; short on a break below.
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Six. China Market
The recovery in the second half of the year that had been expected for China is about to face its first test. Data released over the past week continued to show weak domestic demand (CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, reflecting soft consumer demand, renewed deflationary pressure, and sluggish construction activity). The pickup in fiscal support has also been limited, new loans fell by a record amount, and borrowing contracted broadly among both households and businesses. Meanwhile, government bond issuance has accelerated only modestly so far this quarter. Expectations for a marked acceleration in growth this quarter face downside risks. The broader message remains that the economy lacks endogenous demand momentum.
Seasonally adjusted industrial production rose slightly month over month in 7, by 0.1%. This increase may seem modest, but it follows a month-over-month surge of 1% in 6, meaning the underlying trend in industrial production has turned positive again. By contrast, even with seasonal support from the summer travel season, retail sales in 7 are expected to rise only modestly by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted month over month); fixed-asset investment is expected to fall 9% year over year, continuing to be constrained by delays in fiscal fund deployment and adverse weather disrupting construction activity.
In this environment, traditional sectors highly tied to the mainland economy are unlikely to see a genuine improvement in fundamentals. In other words, even if there are trades within the market, they are unlikely to develop into a major right-side rally or lift sentiment across the broader market. Until there is concrete improvement in this area, the only possible themes remain twofold: 1) resources (minor metals and precious metals), and 2) technology.
This is also why, after trading industrial metals for a round in March, we have not returned to them for nearly a quarter. Although copper has already reached new price highs, the backdrop itself does not offer particularly attractive odds.Overall, the recovery narrative has not been undermined, but it is increasingly dependent on whether fiscal policy can actually be implemented. If there is no clearer fiscal catch-up in the coming period, export resilience alone may not be enough to offset persistently weak domestic demand.
Chart: Pair trading and narrative trading conditions
Pair trading conditions (daily chart, as of 260816)
Narrative trading conditions (daily chart, as of 260816)
Likewise, as last week’s weekly note said: the two lines are telling the same story. They are really the two main themes repeatedly mentioned before on the Planet: 1) resources, 2) technology;We are now trading the return of the main themes.
Pair trading of technology and the old guard (daily chart, as of 260816)
Technology versus the old guard has returned to the 03.31 level.
...
Figure: Positioning map
Red indicates broadly bearish positioning, green broadly bullish positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260816)
More and more technology names are returning to the Crowned consensus stage.
Mainland trading: weekly performance ranking (as of 260816)
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In addition to the regular positioning-chart updates, I’ll also share some top-down trading updates each week going forward.
Chart: Taking a top-down view—making complex things simple
Chart: On taking a top-down view, originally published inHong Kong Dragon (AHong Kong Trading Planet)
Many things are hard to see clearly from the bottom up, but it’s different when viewed from the top down.
Complex things become clear and simple.
Chart: Optical Switching Basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Since turning bullish (see the mainland version of Hong Kong Dragon Tech Monitor), the beauty contest has shifted into a warming-up phase, with the early inflection turning upward. The probability of a catch-up trade touching T1 is very high. PT was the Wednesday low; that day saw the most intense catch-up trading (the pricing day when new counterparties flowed in).
Chart: CXO Basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
The issue with CXO can be seen more clearly on the point-and-figure chart.By the end of this week’s trading, it was close to the 3 annual high; a breakout needs a pullback to build strength, so be mindful of the risk of overbought conditions.
In fact, for breakout trading, if you have no position, entering at the breakout edge is very risky, because you can very easily end up with an unrealized loss as soon as you buy. A SO pullback after the breakout is confirmed is a safer entry area.
...
Chart: CCL Basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Lithium-ion battery separator basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Analog chip basket (daily chart, as of 2608016)
The first bullish volume bar appeared; the beauty-contest indicator improved, and momentum improved.
Figure: MLCC basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Liquid cooling basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Baijiu basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Momentum is actually still ticking; it has not turned bullish.
Figure: Gold basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Silver basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
The equity-market proxies for gold and silver are both approaching PT.
Figure: Film and cinema basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Power basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
Figure: Copper basket (daily chart, as of 260816)
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Seven. Precious metals
Figure: Gold
CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260816)
Gold triggered a bullish PT; profits were taken and the position was exited. The next long entry would be at the highest point of this rally, We will buy again after the breakout。
GDX(Daily chart, as of 260816)
GDX triggered a bullish PT; profits were taken and the position was exited.
Likewise, the next long entry would be above the period high.
...
...
Figure: Silver
CMX silver (daily chart, as of 260816)
Still holding a long position. Divergences are beginning to emerge within precious metals, so monitor them independently.
SIL(Daily chart, as of 260816)
A bullish PT was triggered; profits were taken and the position was exited. To go long again, the price needs to break above the bearish SL.
...
Silver’s performance relative to gold is an important indicator of whether sentiment toward precious metals is returning.Silver is a higher-beta precious metal. If it starts to consistently outperform gold, that would support the case for a new leg up in gold—something we have not seen yet either.
CMXSilver/CMXGold overlayCMXGold (daily chart, as of 260816)
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Eight. Alternative assets
Yellow (daily chart, as of 260816)
Still bearish.
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Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction and make personal asset-allocation decisions within the bounds of applicable rules. This content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities (El Niño): cocoa, coffee, soybeans, raw sugar, and rice
Chart: Cocoa; after turning bullish again, the price moved up and down as expected
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260816)
Long, short, long, short, then long again. The point of swing trading is to follow as many abnormal price moves as possible. An abnormal move is one that violates the common-sense logic of an if-then statement: if the price continues to rise or fall, then it should not go to a certain level. If it does, then...
PTMoved slightly higher
...
Chart: Coffee breaks above the upper boundary
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260816)
The bottom fractal reversal has stalled, and bearish momentum is expanding. This trade may be closed out next week.
...
Besides cocoa and coffee, many agricultural commodities showed unusual shifts between bullish and bearish signals this week. Wheat, in particular, showed a potential contrarian positioning pattern: large speculators went from being close to flat to net short by about 1.5 ten thousand contracts in one week. About 1.1 ten thousand of those were newly established shorts, rather than long positions being closed. More importantly, those shorts were established before the latest escalation in the Black Sea situation...
The market subsequently heard reports that major Russian grain infrastructure had been attacked. Russia accounts for about 22% of global wheat exports; any disruption to exports could quickly turn into a global wheat supply issue.As a result, speculators adding to short positions while physical supply risks are rising creates the potential conditions for a squeeze.
If the Black Sea situation continues to deteriorate, the newly established wheat shorts may be forced to cover.
Soybeans and corn are showing similar chart patterns...
The agricultural sector as a whole is beginning to show potential supply shortages and a bullish price structure. Keep an eye on it.
Chart: Soybeans
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260816)
Turned bullish.
Chart: Raw Sugar, Breaks Out Strongly
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Wrap Ari's Weekly Wrap
Raw Sugar (daily chart, as of 260816)
PT remains in place, at the breakdown point of the new trading range.
Chart: Wheat
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260816)
Turned bullish.
Ten. Uranium
URA (daily chart, as of 260816)
Uranium is worth mentioning: PT is at the breakdown point of the new trading range,
If it breaks below here, take profits first and wait before building positions again.
Eleven. Industrial Metals
HG1!(Daily chart, as of 260816)
Despite the steady stream of positive news, copper has yet to show sustained strength, and prices have made little progress. Meanwhile, speculators' long positions in copper have become extremely crowded. When everyone is already long, the market often finds it difficult to keep rising.
On the one hand, the underlying macro backdrop does not provide support (see the earlier discussion of the China and US sectors); on the other hand, as a metal previously traded as a core AI-trading attribute, copper is starting to lose momentum, long positions are crowded, and it is unable to respond well to positive news.
In other words, if you are determined to find a short candidate related to AI, copper may be much more suitable than many of the pure AI names in the market.
Of course, wait until the price breaks below the bullish PT (see chart above).
COPX (daily chart, as of 260816)
Copper miners have entered short territory.
I appreciate everyone's kindness, but I'm not important and have no intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep a low profile; the content on our Planet is for our own community, and we try not to share it externally.
Thank you all for your support.
...
(End of article)
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