Brent is back in the 90s after trading in the 70s last week. As I have said in previous DeskNotes and Tactical Positioning, oil remains in a wide buy-low, sell-high range, with the 70s at the lower end, 100 as the upper bound, and 120 if things really get out of control. The rebound in oil has come with another move higher in yields.
The macro chain remains intact. Oil prices staying elevated for longer -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on gold, and vice versa. As mentioned, 4.4K is very strong resistance, and gold has reversed from this level over the past few hours. A sustained break above it would be the first confirmation of strength in precious metals in months.
Long-end yields are also back near the highs set around the last FOMC, when NQ1!31,167.00 reversed 3% within an hour as yields surged. If long-end yields take out those highs while XAUUSD4,091.6575 clears 4.4K over the next day or two, it would signal a potential regime shift in which yields and precious metals rise in tandem.
That would be an ominous setup for equities, as real equity returns (nominal returns minus inflation) could move deep, deep, deep into negative territory over the coming years.

https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/844b0741-9a59-4965-9739-2dc04e313787

https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/5182aa6a-de48-41a7-9c7c-689e832d68b8