BABATechnical: A sustained move back above 119 keeps 146.4 in play. A sustained break below 119 opens further downside.
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BABATechnical: A sustained move back above 119 keeps 146.4 in play. A sustained break below 119 opens further downside.
XOPTechnical: As long as it holds above 177.7, another test of 190 remains in play. A sustained break above 190 opens further upside. A sustained break below 177.7 puts 161.6 back in play.
NVDATechnical: NVDA remains above the lower boundary of its ascending channel. As long as that boundary holds, the upper channel boundary remains in play. A sustained break below it puts 167 back in play.
SOXX As I have said repeatedly, NVDA and SOXX are the bellwethers of the AI trade. NVDA's rebound was sold, while SOXX remains below former support. The AI complex still lacks broad confirmation.
Technical
SOXX remains below 533.7. Unless it reclaims 533.7, the path of least resistance remains lower. A sustained move above 533.7 puts 561.2 back in play.
GDXTechnical: As long as 92.4 holds, further upside remains open. A sustained break below it puts 79.2 back in play, followed by 70.8.
I said last week that agricultural commodities were waiting for a major breakout that could release the Kraken across inflation assets.
We have it.
DBA has broken above the same ceiling that capped every rally since early 2025, with volume expanding into the breakout. Precious metals and industrial commodities had already started to move. Agriculture was the missing piece. It is no longer missing.
This is where the feedback loop gets ugly. Higher agricultural prices add to food inflation, push inflation expectations higher, and put more pressure on long-end yields. The longer DBA holds this breakout, the harder it becomes for Washington to pretend the inflation problem is contained.
For those already riding the move, trail your stops and protect the gains. For those feeling FOMO, don't chase the first weekly breakout candle. The cleaner entry is a successful backtest of the breakout level.
Technical
DBA has broken above 28.4 on the weekly chart with expanding volume. As long as 28.4 holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained move back below 28.4 invalidates the breakout and puts DBA back inside the prior range.
The bounce I expected last weekend and reiterated in several intraweek Desk Notes has played out. NQ1! bounced from the multi-year ascending trendline and ES1! traded back toward 7.8K, while SPX and ES never lost the first supports I identified.
The hawkish Jackson Hole repricing was the next stress test. The selling still failed to break those supports, keeping the rebound alive.
Unless NDX and NQ break back below their descending trendlines, the path of least resistance for U.S. equities remains higher.
Technical
SPX remains above 7.58K, while ES remains above 7.63K. As long as both hold, the upper channel boundaries remain in play. Sustained breaks below them put the lower channel boundaries back in play.
Technical: NDX and NQ remain above their descending trendlines. As long as those lines hold, further upside remains open. A move back below puts 28.6K in play on NDX and the lower ascending trendline in play on NQ.
399001
000001 remains capped by the descending trendline. This line has rejected every attempt higher since May. Until it breaks, bears remain in control.
Technical
The descending trendline remains resistance. A sustained break above it opens further upside. Continued rejection puts 3.8K back in play.
Shenzhen continues to trade around the ascending trendline. It needs to move back above the line before the path shifts higher.
As long as Shenzhen remains below the ascending trendline, the path of least resistance remains lower and 13.17K stays in play. A sustained move back above the trendline puts bulls back in control. A sustained break below 13.17K opens further downside.
NVDA is up 4.5% after hours, giving us the bounce we expected.
Remember what I said before earnings? For ES1! to trade back toward its ATH, NQ1! needed to:
1) Bounce from its multi-year ascending trendline support.
2) Reclaim the descending trendline.
The first condition was satisfied on Monday. NQ will likely tag the descending trendline overnight, possibly as soon as Globex opens in 2 minutes. Now let's see whether it can break and hold above it.
I called the top when SPX was trading around 7.8K and called the swing low on Monday. Both calls played out.
As I wrote in Monday's Desk Note, NVDA's initial post-earnings move has repeatedly failed to hold. Over the past eight earnings, NVDA gained an average of 1.35% overnight, then fell an average of 4.04% from the next session's open to close.
For those feeling FOMO, don't. The entry was Monday.
For traders riding the bounce, trail your stops and protect the gains. NQ must break above the descending trendline before ES can trade back toward its ATH.
We have NVDA earnings after the close tomorrow. For NQ1! to reclaim the descending trendline and ES1! to trade back toward its recent highs, we need NVDA to deliver strong earnings.
It is worth noting that the initial move has repeatedly failed to hold. Over the past eight earnings, NVDA gained an average of 1.35% overnight, only to fall an average of 4.04% from the next session's open to close. By the end of the first post-earnings session, NVDA was down an average of 2.78% from its pre-earnings close. Six of the eight sessions finished negative.
We got the bounce where we expected it. Remember what I said yesterday? For ES1! to trade back toward its recent highs, two things had to happen.
1) NQ1! had to bounce from its multi-year ascending trendline support.
2) NQ had to reclaim the descending trendline.
The first condition has been met. Now let's see whether the market gives us the second.
Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields. We have watched this exact chain reaction play out for the past six months.
After Treasury's move last Wednesday, there are only three paths from here.
First, oil stays elevated and inflation pressure keeps building, but Trump and Bessent succeed in suppressing long-end yields. Washington can call it liquidity support. The tape will call it de facto QE and YCC. XAUUSD will keep outperforming.
Second, the bond vigilantes slap Trump and Bessent in the face. Long-end yields explode higher and trigger liquidation across the board. Once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold.
Third, the Strait of Hormuz is back in business. Oil falls, inflation pressure fades, and long-end yields roll over. Fiscal overspending alone cannot keep the US10Y and US30Y at these levels. Gold benefits from lower yields and heads higher.
Equities reversed lower after ES1! rejected its ascending resistance line where we called the top. NQ1! has broken back below its descending trendline and is now testing a multi-year ascending trendline that could provide ST support.
Over the weekend, I mentioned that there was still a small chance of a bounce. This is the level I was referring to.
For that rebound to materialize, NQ needs to lead from here—bounce off the ascending trendline and, ideally, reclaim the descending trendline this week. If those conditions are met, I expect ES to trade back toward its recent highs over the coming weeks.
Conversely, if NQ fails to bounce from the ascending trendline, the downside should accelerate.
HSITechnical: As long as 25.25K holds, another test of the trendline remains in play. A sustained move above it puts 27.29K in play. A sustained break below 25.25K puts 22.55K back in play.
NVDATechnical: As long as the lower channel boundary holds, the upper boundary remains in play. A sustained break below it opens more downside.
NIFTYTechnical: A sustained move above 24.34K opens further upside. A sustained break below the trendline puts the 22.1K–21.97K support zone in play.
SOX Remember this chart from May and June, when SOX peaked? It has followed the 2001 path to an almost unfathomable degree. The timing and magnitude of the swings have remained remarkably close.
XAGUSD Silver reached the 70 wall yesterday. The same risk management applies: have stops in place to protect profits.
Technical
Silver tested 70. A sustained move above it opens further upside.
PLTRTechnical: PLTR has broken above the descending trendline and 155.6 resistance. As long as 155.6 holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break back below 155.6 puts 128 back in play.
HG1!Technical: HG remains inside the ascending channel. As long as the ST ascending trendline holds, the upper boundary remains in play. A break below it puts 6.11 back in play.