23 August 2026
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Zero. Strive to get in before the market move takes off
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Use data to objectively monitor market movements and act at key moments; subscribers to the column use the datasetBuy before MRNA’s single-day 170%upward move gets underway
It has been nearly three quarters since the platform’s dataset was launched. More and more people have learned to use this dataset proficiently and incorporate it into their own trading systems, deeply understanding and putting into practice the power of “having a basis for both entering and exiting positions”...
Monitoring works because, fundamentally, anyone who wants to take action in the market inevitably leaves traces.Whether it is capital positioned in advance, insiders with an information advantage, or countless individuals around the world participating for different reasons, these seemingly scattered actions, once aggregated and identified in the summary table, ultimately become a spontaneous consensus that can truly be observed structurally.
...
The chart below showsMRNA145.80the daily chart of:
Chart: Anyone doing anything in the market will inevitably leave traces...
MRNA (daily chart, as of 260823)
Even the most skilled trader cannot completely hide from us; with the map fully open, nothing escapes detection.
...
The chart below shows the summary table of US-session data as of the day before the breakout:
MRNA at 26.08.19 Monitoring the summary table’s status on the day before the breakout
It is clear that seven trading days before the sharp rise in the share price 170%, the momentum measurement had already broken upward out of its “energy compression” marked state; five trading days before the rise, major-player funds turned to net inflows and climbed rapidly. At the same time, “beauty contest momentum” turned positive from negative and entered a “consensus” state, while the daily trend also turned upward…
Chart: The aim should be to buy before the move begins...
A skilled trader should aim to buy before the trend begins—in other words, to position themselves in advance of news flow and volatility expansion.
...
Why identify unusual activity as early as possible?
If you buy when unusual activity appears in the dataset, you can capture the entire 180%+ range as trading profit. If you see the news and buy at the opening at the first opportunity, you can capture only 50% of the range as profit… which is still not bad… If you buy an hour after the open, once more news has emerged—just an hour later—your intraday unrealized profit will be only 12.5%…
...
The key issue is that the size of your unrealized profit after buying essentially determines your psychological and objective advantage in the subsequent price action.
Having a substantial unrealized profit as a safety margin and being likely to face consolidation and potential losses immediately after buying are two completely different situations.
...
In fact, those who chased the stock after seeing it rise following the open are now, as of today, sitting on unrealized losses.
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Data is an objective window into “what they are doing.”
Use data to objectively monitor market movements and act at key moments;subscribers to the column use datasets and the weekly publication to make buy bets on alternative assets.
We’ll discuss more specific details of this in the section on alternative assets later.
First, macro trading positioning
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Chart: An extremely unusual price signal...
At the opening of last week’s weekly note, I mentioned the unusual rise in yields,“The fairly clear conclusion is that even if inflation comes in below market expectations and the economy may also be weaker than expected, yields still want to move higher... This is an extremely unusual price signal.”This week, 30-year Treasury yields continued to climb, ending the upbeat sentiment in US and global equities and the wave of buying back into technology stocks:
Chart: A bond market-triggered selloff
US30YOverlaid withKOSPI6,912.95Overlaid withNQ1!(minute chart, as of 260823)
After the event, Bessent began expanding long-term bond buybacks, seeking to have the Treasury conduct a twist operation to push down long-term yields. This is a key signal because buyback plans are usually adjusted only during quarterly refunding, and the relevant announcement had only just been released. This unscheduled adjustment was therefore clearly a response to market developments, indicating that the Treasury believes 5.3%-year long-term yields are already too high.
Long-term Treasury yields depend not only on market expectations for the Fed’s policy path but also significantly on supply and demand. Directly reducing the supply of long-term Treasuries should push yields down, and the market reaction on the day of the announcement supported this view. However, the Treasury is still contending with global upward pressure on yields from persistently rising oil prices.
In an interview, Bessent publicly called it a Treasury twist operation, which means the Treasury may issue more short-term bills to buy back long-term Treasuries, thereby shortening the overall duration of outstanding US debt. The scale may not be large at present, but in principle, the buybacks could be expanded substantially;if the Treasury really wants to do this, there is no obvious limit to the scale. It can keep ramping it up until it gets the market outcome it wants.This is similar to the Fed’s Operation Twist in 2012, when the Fed reduced its holdings of short-term Treasuries and increased its holdings of long-term Treasuries to push down long-term interest rates. The only difference is that the Fed carried it out then, while the Treasury is doing so now.
On the day the news was announced, long-term Treasuries rose and yields fell by about 9 basis points. Although most of that move was reversed over the following two days, the Treasury clearly still has enough capacity to keep going, if it chooses.
In short, all of this means that 5.3% has become a hard ceiling, at least for now. Continuing to bet on yields moving higher means taking the other side of Bessent.Of course, for yields to fall back below 5%, there still needs to be a breakthrough on the war front.
Chart: A hard ceiling has emerged
US30Y (hourly chart, as of 260823)
...
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Apart from the bond market’s own performance, the market’s reaction in the second half of this week was that investors don’t like this policy and see it as inflationary.
As a result, inflation-related assets rose rapidly...
This was when gold began to surge again—and also when cryptocurrencies began to surge again after escaping the liquidity headwinds they had faced. These cross-asset dynamics unfolded in sync, so to some extent, you should view them within the same inflation-trade framework。
Chart: Cross-asset moves are essentially trading the same thing; they are closely connected
US30Y overlaid with alternative assets overlaid with CMX gold (minute chart, as of 260823)
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In any case, this can count as a case study that has just unfolded for friends who have newly subscribed to the column: how we spot anomalies and get ahead of market events. It also answers a key question: why must we, as macro traders, spot anomalies early?
Anomalies matter because if everything is in a “normal” state, anomalies cannot occur. And when an anomaly does appear, the direction it points to often becomes the main direction of increased volatility…
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Finally, there is one more point to note: a potential, long-cycle trading scenario in which the market starts to expect a marked economic slowdown or a recession;If this trade materializes, it could be in 27 year To position for this, keep a close eye on TLT’s moves. At that point, funds will shift into long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, pushing long-term Treasury prices higher and yields lower...
Chart: A long-cycle extreme scenario
TLT82.02(Daily chart, as of 260823)
For this path to play out, TLT needs to hold above the purple rectangle and break upward. Just observe; don’t jump the gun.
This path may not materialize, either, but you should remain aware of the risk.。
...
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Chart: Macro Drivers positioning map
Macro-theme logic trade positioning shifts (as of 260823)
Red indicates unanimous short positioning, green unanimous long positioning, and gray disagreement; a gold-edged dot means it is moving toward the upper right (as of 260823).
“After the real financial conditions we monitor reached a turning point, precious metals, equities, and technology all subsequently turned upward, but as of now Crypto still hasn’t caught up.”
——《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
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As of this week, this spread has been sharply erased.
Chart: Real Financial Conditions (market pricing) overlaid with the Precious Metals & Tech & Alternative Assets Composite
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 260823)
Two. Technology trade positioning
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KOSPI6,912.95(Daily chart, as of 260823)
The Korean index long-position stop was swept out by the U.S. Treasury shock during the week, creating a fairly complex situation. On the one hand, election momentum is positive; on the other, the structure is under pressure from funds covering their highs;
There are two possible scenarios with the best risk-reward once the price action unfolds:
1) The most optimistic path, or the long setup: the price itself breaks above Tuesday’s trading high (the white line above), election momentum continues to improve, and momentum breaks upward out of the compression dots. This path would be expected to bring the price back to just below the previous high.
2) The most pessimistic path, or the short setup: the price fails to break above the white line and gets worn down here; after election momentum weakens, it falls below Wednesday’s shock-day low, turns downward, and triggers a downward break out of the compression dots.
...
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Planet Q&A: the bottom-up Tech Monitor and the divergent index performance
This section answers 1) why we need to update the bottom-up Tech Monitor within the planet, and 2) how this technology rebound differs from the rebound at the end of March:
Normally, there are two kinds of rebound: a broad-based rebound led by the index from the top down, with the index leading micro-level indicators; and a differentiated rebound that builds from the bottom up.For example, even if technology stocks fell during the week, some proxies still had unrealized gains of around 30%, while others had actually made new lows.
This time, the rebound has been led by micro-level proxies, with the index lagging. That has been the case since 07.31 began, The underlying reason for the divergence is differentiated trading. This is also why, unlike at the end of March, we are releasing a separate bottom-up Tech Monitor this time to help everyone trade the rebound. At the end of March, the index led the micro-level indicators in a broad-based move, so there was little need to look for differentiated stock picks.
The shift to a bullish outlook in the indices has also been asynchronous this time. In terms of price levels, U.S. technology stocks never broke down completely, China was supported at its annual moving average, and the Korean index fell below it. U.S. technology trading led, with China ahead of Korea.
In terms of timing, China, the U.S., and Korea moved broadly in unison at the end of March, after which Korea took the lead in setting prices. This time, China and the U.S. turned bullish in the middle of the week before last, while the Korean index turned bullish at the end of last week—again, the U.S. led, followed by China and then Korea. After the Korean index had just finally aligned with the others, it was immediately led by the U.S. market into another sharp sell-off and broke down. This was very painful for Korea and amounted to a shakeout.
The lack of alignment in fact marked the substantive handover of technology pricing power from Korea back to the United States. This time, the U.S. market also led the decline, and China and Korea completed their follow-through confirmation. This can be understood as the day that confirmed the handover of pricing power.
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SOXX519.75(Daily chart, as of 260823)
The core proxy for U.S. market technology, SOXX, broke below the bullish take-profit line during the week and turned bearish. The invalidation price for the bearish view here should be set at the closing price on the day before the gap-down.If investors remain fixated on the semiconductor or technology rally, this is a level that must be reclaimed. Any rebound that fails to break above this price can be regarded as a sign of weakness.
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260823)
STAR Market 50 has the same structure as the U.S. market. For bulls to re-enter, the price needs to break above the closing price on the day before the gap-down; otherwise, any move can be regarded as a sign of weakness among technology investors.The failure of selected U.S. momentum stocks to break above the 0 axis before turning down again reflects capital continuing to search within the market for rotation opportunities and new themes that can attract investment. This week, agricultural commodity trading, broad healthcare trading fueled by MRNA, and precious metals trading have all been competitors for onshore capital, vying with hard technology for funds.These funds will not return until the price breaks above the close on the day before the gap.
...
Two examples help explain why stops need to exist and what happens after they are breached, whether to the upside or downside. There is no need to “hold on,” nor to worry about “missing out.” Holding on and missing out are both essentially gambler’s thinking. Trade only at key moments; trading frequently when the moment is not important is also gambling.
...
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Tech Monitor mainland basket as an asset (daily chart, as of 260823)
Most of the mainland technology basket has moved into bearish territory, and the first round of rebound trades that began in 0731 officially came to an end this week.
Could it still rise? Possibly. Could it still fall? Also possible. But one thing is certain: at least as of today, we are still in an era lacking in imagination, and AI has become the only seemingly low-hanging fruit. Note: it only seems that way, but it is also the only one.
In other words, for more investors, chasing AI is something they have little choice but to do. The reason is simple: for industrial capital, having someone else possess something that you do not is one of the most unacceptable situations in business. Whatever the outlook, if someone is making a move, you have to follow; this applies to small companies as well as industry giants. The same is true for sovereign funds with fixed allocation requirements: it is a necessary action, though the contest is at a higher level of conflict. For fundamental investors, the siphoning effect of AI has locked prosperity firmly into this small area; today, there are no signs that the traditional economy can take up the mantle again. And for the broader pool of speculative capital, at least for now, no area other than AI has earned the approval of selected U.S. momentum stocks for a period of more than a week.
Tech Monitor (daily chart, as of 260823)
Divergence continues: some are still bullish, while others have completed the first round of rebound trades that began in 07.31 and have turned bearish again. In any case, will you miss out? No. Do you need to hold on? No.For individuals in the market, whether to buy or sell, simply following the market itself is enough. Your opinion does not matter at all; what matters is what those with pricing power are thinking, and they are most likely thinking differently from you.
This is not a question of who is smarter or more correct. Most of what is called “correct” is simply the result seen in hindsight. Arguing about whether something is correct is meaningless.
Three. Global Equity Positioning
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Red indicates unanimous short positioning, green unanimous long positioning, and gray disagreement; a gold-edged dot means it is moving toward the upper right (as of 260823).
Assets in some countries that remain outside the mainstream’s field of view have instead continued to post relatively steady gains. Compared with the discussion in the previous weekly report, the fundamentals have not changed much, so I will not revisit them here. Interested readers can look back at the earlier discussion of European countries and some war-de-escalation trades.
The only thing that needs a brief update is Greece. After breaking through the gold line drawn in the previous weekly report, it reached the T1 target price during the week:
GREK84.50(Daily chart, as of 260823)
Unfortunately, because of concerns about political risk at the time, I did not buy much when allocating to it. This is also quite interesting. In fact, I recently reviewed my own positions, and overall, trades managed on the basis of price alone ended up performing better than those managed on the basis of fundamentals when entering the position.
Even so, I will continue to do this, because you can never know when a black swan will appear, and fundamentals are the only system that lets you form some prior judgment about an event in advance(technical and capital-flow comparisons, as systems two and three, are in practice both reactive).I regard it as an insurance premium—the cost of being able to stay in the market.
...
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Global equity thesis trades: notable moves (Economic) (as of 260823)
Global resource shorts, Latin America, and DM Domestic are currently the largest sources of notable moves. These are in fact also part of the same macro trading logic, and are about the same thing as Crypto, gold, and U.S. Treasuries discussed in the macro positioning section. Underlying this is cross-market, cross-asset confirmation.
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The chart below shows the technology trade positioning from last week’s weekly report:
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
A precise reversal:
Global equity thesis trades: notable moves (technology vs. resources) (as of 260823)
This is the most important chart among all the thesis trades because it tracks the only two core themes currently viable in the market: technology and resources, the central trading pair.
Four. U.S. Equity Market Positioning
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(Daily chart, as of 260823)
SPX shifted from bullish to bearish. After previously moving from a trading range into an uptrend channel, it broke below the uptrend channel during the week and returned to a trading range.Wednesday’s intraday high is the level at which a further advance by the bulls was rejected. To reach the 8000-point target, price first needs to reclaim this level.。
The core support for the continuation of the bull market is corporate earnings. Objectively speaking, the internet bubble of 2000 can now be excluded as a relevant comparison; the question should now turn to Has irrational exuberance shifted from stock prices to earnings expectations?
In the current complex situation, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in 9. And if it does nothing in 9, it will also be difficult to make a compelling case for a rate hike in 10, so close to the midterm elections;Therefore, the next meeting at which a rate hike is genuinely possible will be in 12, so this will not pose a tail risk in the short term.
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MEME8.03(Daily chart, as of 260823)
As the key proxy for betting on market sentiment, MEME turned bearish during the week after falling below the previously planned take-profit level. This brings a fairly complete long-short-long cycle to a close, and for now, turning long again would require the price to break above the daily close on the sentiment peak day, where a breakout would mark a resurgence in market speculation.
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Red indicates unanimous short positioning, green unanimous long positioning, and gray disagreement; a gold-edged dot means it is moving toward the upper right (as of 260823).
Strong momentum above the green line; above the yellow line is a place to take a shot; below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market will tend toward random fluctuations (as of 260823)
Holding above the yellow line.
Five. FX Trade Positioning
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USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 260823)
After a brief pause last week, the decline continued this week. This trade has progressed very smoothly since entry in the Planet community, and in FX, viewed in hindsight from today, it is the most tradable pair.
Use this to further emphasize the three systems: fundamentals, technical patterns, and relative value and capital flows are all indispensable; the same technical pattern can unfold with very different smoothness and travel very different distances under different fundamental conditions. The dollar-won trade is a classic trade in which all three systems are aligned: driven by relative value (see the previous weekly note's first discussion of the Korean index and the won), confirmed by the technical pattern, and set against fundamentals as the core backdrop (also see the first discussion of the won).
The trades that contribute the most returns and feel most comfortable along the way are always those that have been fully cross-validated by all three systems; none can be left out.
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The take-profit level remains in place, moved down to the midpoint of the previous range.Understanding that “the price you see always moves in blocks”—why put this here?
The decline shifts to stagnation, then stagnation shifts back to decline. Before the renewed decline touches T2, the setup being traded is the shift from stagnation back to decline. What would invalidate this setup? If... our hypothesis is correct, then... the price cannot reach the midpoint of trading in the preceding stagnation range.
Review and understand it for yourself.
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USDBRL(Daily chart, as of 260823)
The bulls' breakout attempt failed during the week.A reversal as expected.
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
The same core question remains: why consider fundamentals, and why use three systems?From the more fundamental perspective of the economic system, a reversal was the expected move, and the reversal came as expected this week.Fundamentals are a priori; they can lead price (of course, as an individual without pricing power, you must wait for price to confirm, and must absolutely not jump the gun).
There may be another reversal and then a reversal back, but until future price says so, trust the price itself today.
Open a position in the same direction at EWZ, with the stop-loss at the low of the day the trend turned bullish:
EWZ35.06(Daily chart, as of 260823)
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EURJPY(Daily chart, as of 260823)
Continue to watch the top-expansion pattern in EUR/JPY,
Friends betting on an improvement in Japan should keep a close eye on it.
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Chart: FX Trading Positioning
Red indicates unanimous short positioning, green unanimous long positioning, and gray disagreement; a gold-edged dot means it is moving toward the upper right (as of 260823).
...
Six. Mainland China Trading Positioning
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Narrative trading conditions (daily chart, as of 260823)
In the rotation race, precious metals are currently in first place.
Pair-trade conditions (daily chart, as of 260823)
The leading pair trade is currency rates versus industrial demand. This is what last week's weekly note discussed: why I have no interest at all in industrial metals, Any narrative ultimately has to face the test of fundamentals.
This issue of the weekly note seems to have been discussing fundamentals throughout, but that is indeed the reality, Without an uptrend in industry and the traditional economy in sight, investing in industrial metals means you can neither enjoy the full gains associated with AI characteristics nor avoid the full pressure from the economic cycle and the fading of AI trading. They are not a good target. This is why I did not touch them before, even when prices broke out.
Or, to be more specific, It's not that they're bad; they just aren't the best choice, relatively speaking.
The two sections above serve as a joint response to some friends who sent private messages. My health has not been very good lately, and I have also had some unexpected matters to deal with. I've been doing my best to read messages, but I really haven't been able to reply to each one (because I hold myself to the standard that if I reply, I must do so properly). Thank you all for your understanding; I truly appreciate it.
Tech versus old-economy pair trade (daily chart, as of 260823)
It still hasn't broken free to the upside; tech sentiment needs the pair to break above its previous high.
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Silver Basket (daily chart, as of 260823)
The silver basket: a classic range-bound breakout pattern, triggered T1 during the week, and momentum turned positive from compressed readings in Friday's trading. This was its first positive reading in a quarter, while the beauty contest is in a Rising, warming-up state.
Positive beauty-contest signals plus positive momentum have not occurred since the decline at the start of the year, so this is worth noting. At the very least, the odds of holding steady are high, and the upside reward-to-risk is also the best it has been since the start of the year.
Gold Basket (daily chart, as of 260823)
Likewise, it has a structure similar to the silver basket;
Also, a friend messaged to ask why the mainland baskets are not tracking gold and silver in the U.S. session. Given that mainland gold and silver, CMX, GDX, and SIL triggered PT last week, why were the mainland baskets still in bullish territory in last week's weekly note? I didn't get a chance to reply, but I saw the message, so I'll give a general response here: if we analyze precious metals traded onshore and offshore, along with equity-market proxy baskets for precious metals, there is a so-called paradigm context to the relationship between the two. Price movements are fairly consistent in trending conditions, whereas in range-bound conditions, seemingly similar structures can conceal many subtle divergences, causing price friction between onshore and offshore markets.
This time, the mainland precious-metals basket is actually tracking Shanghai gold. Mainland precious-metals futures have also never fallen below the bullish zone, and what is particularly interesting this time is that the mainland shift to bullish in gold and silver came ahead of that in the U.S. session. There is also a sense that precious-metals trading has been sparked in part by activity from within China.
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As for the relationship between the futures and equities baskets this week’s agricultural commodity trading is a good example. We also addressed this question at the start of the year, when we went long oil and shipping: you can think of them as a rubber band. They do not necessarily move in sync. One end advancing continuously may indeed tug at the other, but that does not mean they are priced in perfect tandem, because only part of the stock market has a commodity component. As the rubber band continues to stretch, a rapid narrowing of the price gap is more likely. This is very similar to the rapid closing of the price gap this week after alternative assets broke through unusually strong suppression. The analogy makes it easier to understand.
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Red indicates unanimous short positioning, green unanimous long positioning, and gray disagreement; a gold-edged dot means it is moving toward the upper right (as of 260823).
Mainland trading: weekly percentage gainers (as of 260823)
Seven. Precious-metals trading positioning
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CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260823)
During the week, CMX gold turned bullish again after breaking out. In Friday’s trading, momentum shifted from compressed to positive; this was the first positive reading in a quarter, and the selection indicator was in the Rising, strengthening state.Positive selection indicator + positive momentum for the first time since the decline at the start of the year So this is still worth noting: the probability of at least holding steady is high, and the upside reward-to-risk is also the best it has been since the start of the year.
Place the stop below the low of the reversal bar after the engulfing bar. This is where the bears’ attack failed—or, metaphorically, where the most bodies are piled up. So until price is pushed back down through this level, this is bullish territory.
...
This is actually the second time since 7.21 first turned bullish at the bottom. Behind it is a very standard 3-2-1 structure; viewed from the MTF perspective and traced down to a smaller timeframe, in essence, it is a renewed rejection of consolidation after a trend rejection.
This is not really a path that price would naturally take on its own. It is especially common in the dollar, yen, and euro, but relatively rare in commodity markets.
The 3-2-1 structure mostly occurs in markets such as foreign exchange, which are more closely tied to policy events, and is usually caused by a sudden catalyst forcibly interrupting price consolidation. It can also be described as a new wave of capital suddenly entering an incompletely consolidated, smaller-timeframe range as the marginal dominant counterparty. After this outside capital completes a powerful engulfing move, the advance continues.：
CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260823)
CMX gold (minute chart, as of 260823)
As shown, the first 3 bottom fractal forms an internal reversal within the range, representing normal consolidation on the smaller timeframe from the MTF perspective. The 2 bar engulfs and invalidates the bottom fractal, while also forming a higher low + lower high. Then, as the event bar for 1, it powerfully engulfs the entire 3+2 in one move, completing the pattern.
It is easier to see on the smaller timeframe.
More important than the structure is the multi-timeframe (MTF) perspective. The Buddha sees a bowl of water as eighty-four thousand insects; price is the same. Behind every candle, or every few candles, are dozens, hundreds, or thousands more. Each candle at each level is linked to different market participants and algorithmic models. This is the essence of multiple timeframes, and it will be explored in greater detail in a later teaching manual.
GDX102.83(Daily chart, as of 260823)
The bullish turn at PT occurred at Thursday’s trading low.
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CMX silver (daily chart, as of 260823)
The structure is basically the same as gold; precious-metals trading is one and the same. The reason for the relatively smaller move compared with gold this time was explained in the first part of the column. It is simple: the logic behind cross-asset confirmation is inflation. Silver is both a speculative proxy and an industrial metal, so at least up to now, its cross-asset confirmation has not been as pure as gold’s. However, a catalyst is a catalyst, and price is price. Once a price move triggered by a catalyst itself becomes the driver of price action, silver will still show greater amplitude and volatility.
SIL99.55(Daily chart, as of 260823)
Silver miners, moving broadly in sync.
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The reason white precious metals, represented by platinum and palladium, have not been updated is that they have not triggered the previous PT, so they have not been repeated like gold and silver.
NMXPlatinum (daily chart, as of 260823)
NMXPalladium (daily chart, as of 260823)
A brief update: PT is also placed at Thursday’s low.
Eight. Alternative asset trade positioning
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A group of alternative assets broke above the planned long-entry prices in the previous weekly report, then surged all the way to the present and completed their catch-up. This all happened after the anomaly we had been observing continuously:
The financial-conditions monitoring in the weekly report (see the macro trade positioning section above) tracks the market’s actual pricing of real money flows (what market participants are actually doing). It is far more meaningful than any news, narrative, or single price indicator (what they say). These are real financial conditions.
There is no truly objective news or opinion in the world. Much of what you see and hear is what interested parties want you to see and hear. Don’t focus on what they say; look at what these stakeholders are doing.
...
When the weekly report was published last weekend, only alternative assets had failed to catch up, showing a significant divergence from the others. In other words, there was deliberate suppression of anomalous activity here....
As of now, the spread has been erased. Alternative asset markets broadly rose over two trading days, with Little Yellow and Little E up 20%+...
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Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260823)
Little E (daily chart, as of 260823)
Once that abnormal suppression is lifted, this kind of very sharp closing of the spread can occur.
...
PT is placed at the low of the follow-through bar. This is a lower-timeframe consolidation area from the MTF perspective; T1 there was actually a lot of choppiness on the lower timeframe here too. Those interested can look at the chart for themselves.
All the marked points are meaningful levels, and action should be taken only at meaningful levels. Frequent trading at other times and places merely serves the urge to gamble. The pursuit of excitement does not belong here; you can go shopping or do something fun instead.
The market is a place to work, and your behavior here should be no different from a normal day at work: it should be very boring.
Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction and allocate personal assets only within the bounds of applicable regulations. This content is intended only for users in certain special overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities
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After turning bullish last week, Agricultural proxies broke out and rallied sharply during the week:
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
Chart: CN Basket agricultural commodities (daily chart, as of 260823)
Equity-market proxies moved ahead of the curve. In the two trading days after the weekly report was published, the agricultural sector accelerated higher, and micro-level proxy assets rose broadly by 10–40%. As I said before, nothing posted in the subscription channel is published arbitrarily—I emphasize items worth watching only when they truly matter.
Midweek, I noted that some agricultural commodity proxy assets in the stock market had triggered T1, but futures had yet to follow, so corresponding consideration should be given to raising take-profit levels.
As of now, the momentum trade has pulled back below T1.
I’ll point out as much as I can from the weekly column, within the bounds of compliance. You’ll all need to think about it after reading, and, more importantly, learn to observe how prices unfold afterward. Add all relevant instruments to your watchlists. Treat everything as food for thought.
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The next move, if there is one, will have to wait until the futures markets confirm one another.
Understanding You can only manage your position with confidence if you enter before an expanding range begins to move higher.
2
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260823)
Long-short-long-short, then back to long. The point of swing trading is to keep up with as many abnormal price moves as possible. An abnormal move follows the common-sense logic of “if…then”: if price continues higher or falls, where should it not go? If it does go there, then…
PT should not move, because price is still trading within the current “block.”
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3
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260823)
Price is struggling around the T2 target. From the MTF perspective, we can see a tightening consolidation of higher lows and lower highs. A breakout from the consolidation will bring an expansion in volatility.An expansion in volatility is predictable; whether it will be to the upside or downside is not. Don’t make predictions—predicting is really just gambling. This is my system, and it isn’t necessarily right.
Likewise, PT should not move, because price is still trading within the current “block.”
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4
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260823)
After the long signal was triggered last week, the rally continued during the week. A failed breakout occurred here earlier; if a second one is triggered, it will form a hard price ceiling. Tighten the stop.
5
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260823)
Sugar is the ultimate expression of the aesthetics of price. Since entry, the position is up approximately 20%. The strong push failed to trigger T2; price may need a pullback to build momentum. Tighten the stop to above T1, the lower boundary of the consolidation range formed as the uptrend channel turned into a consolidation.
6
Corn (daily chart, as of 260823)
Corn also saw its range expand during the week. The PT level is placed at the lower boundary of the MTF lower-timeframe consolidation range; a strong bull should not break below here.
7
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260823)
Wheat—and, in fact, the structures across agricultural commodities are all alike. This is, to some extent, an event-driven trade. Whether it’s El Niño or the Black Sea, as I’ve repeatedly said in previous columns:For agricultural commodities, it’s simply a case of unusual weather occurring here and costs rising there. But are these things really happening? Hard to say. In fact, no one really cares.
Ten. Some others: uranium, lithium carbonate
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URA (daily chart, as of 260823)
The uranium proxy closed out the previous long trade according to plan after the PT signal was triggered on Monday. It triggered a new long signal again on Friday. After the signal, price showed signs of exhaustion at the entry price, so the position was underwater as soon as it was opened.It would not be ideal to turn bullish again right away here, but we should still follow the plan strictly. Ideally, we would see an upward breakout after point compression. Beauty pageants could still be an area of strength, demonstrating that capital is still paying attention to this field, with the expectation that a breakout could trigger broader inflows of liquid capital.
2
An update on lithium carbonate: the day after an earlier post reminded shorts to take profits, the planned price trigger was hit; the short structure turned into a long structure.View noteA reminder once again, for longtime friends and for those who have just joined: what I post on the platform matters, and when I post it matters even more. If either of these conditions is not met, I will not post it.
Everything is posted only when the timing is right. Your actions should also be timely: act only when action is called for; at other times, watch quietly, stay firmly seated, and observe with a cool head.
Lithium carbonate (daily chart, as of 260823)
To be frank, I am not setting very high expectations for the bulls either, for two reasons:
(1) Fundamentals have indeed stabilized, but there are no visible positive signs of an upward move. This round of short covering was also triggered by an event. Of course, to some extent, the event itself was a result of the price action, which is also why we could anticipate it at a key level. However, without a strong fundamental narrative to support it, we still cannot feel confident. We are not pure speculators;
(2) Momentum is still undergoing point compression, with no upward breakout. There is also a more positive interpretation: compression here has not resulted in a downward breakout either. In short, the best-case scenario for the bulls would be to see momentum break upward after compression within the month; for the bears, a failure by the bulls (PT trigger) would naturally bring further gravitational free fall.
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Methanol (daily chart, as of 260823)
There is actually a lot more, but I could never cover it all just by talking. Be sure to make full use of the comprehensive data table. The world is vast, and there really is a great deal to be done.
You cannot rely on others; you have to work hard to rely on yourself.
I appreciate your kindness, but I am not important, nor do I intend to become famous. I prefer to keep my head down and work quietly; content within our own platform should, as much as possible, stay within the group.
My thanks to you all. Thank you, friends.
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Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
