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30 August 2026
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Zero. Back-to-School Season
1
The series “Basic and Not-So-Basic Technical Analysis” begins;Kudos to those who put what they learn into practice
It’s back-to-school season again. The kids at home are heading to school, and all of you and I have to start school too. This school year, let’s work hard to learn as much as we can, both the basic and the not-so-basic. I’ll also do my best to share my experience and lessons learned with you all without holding anything back.
Two things to write about at the start of this school year:
1）Always avoid the mindset that, once you’ve learned about hammers, everything looks like a nail.the idea.Although I position each lesson as one lesson worth ten thousand (friends who have fully completed the first lesson should already have a sense of this), each lesson is still just one of dozens of foundational lessons and just one of the myriad techniques I use and will pass on to you. The column is called “Basic and Not-So-Basic Technical Analysis.” After the foundational lessons, we’ll continue introducing the not-so-basic... The market is ever-changing; there is no Holy Grail. The only constant is change itself.For individuals in the market, what never changes is the need to keep developing the ability to evolve.
2）Always think about why you can make money.At least in the secondary market, the process of building and maintaining your own structural edge never ends.
A friend sent me a private message asking why my material seems different from the “大道至简” (“the Great Way is simplicity itself”) that has long been embraced in China...
The brutal truth is this: when others have higher intelligence and educational credentials, better resources, greater focus, and work even harder than you do, what kind of “simplicity” could let you beat people whose profession is also their livelihood, using only your personal interests?
Or put another way, the Way can be simple, but technique and growth themselves cannot. “Simplicity at its utmost” is no excuse for laziness.Many people study Buffett and Munger, and portray value investing as lazy. They see only the outcome, not the process.The former was the only student Graham ever gave the highest grade to in all his years of teaching. The latter completed numerous outstanding deals in the primary market early in his career, and has maintained the habit of reading intensively ever since.
No success comes easily. Easy things exist only in picture books, not in reality. Ultimately, your profits come only from other people’s losses, and the key to excess returns is doing more than others. Ask yourself: what have you persisted in doing that others haven’t, and where have you worked harder to do better than they have?
2
Over the years, I’ve met many people—some smart, some hardworking—but in the end, there is only one kind of person who can achieve the results they want: those who rely on themselves.I have never seen anyone who depends on others as a matter of course make it happily to settlement day.
Disagreeing with me doesn’t mean you’re wrong; I may well be wrong (and I hope you can prove me wrong). It only means that you and I are not traveling the same path. At least in the areas I can control, there have been, are, and will never be any buy or sell recommendations. Anyone thinking of copying my trades should contact me promptly for a full refund and withdraw. To those willing to put their future in someone else’s hands, good luck.
...
If you simply collect ideas at random from different places and put them into a portfolio, the resulting portfolio won’t suit you. When the market moves against you (which happens often), you won’t know what to do.
3
The right ideas receive timely feedback through resonance. The day after the first lesson was updated, Warsh’s remarks gave us the most immediate feedback and opportunity for cross-market application. In the recent precious-metals decline, whether you studied the first lesson carefully or read last week’s weekly newsletter closely, you could independently manage your exposure and avoid the downside with a clear basis for your decisions.
Basic and Not-So-Basic Technical Analysis (Lesson One): Rethinking Trends, Fractals, and the Multi-Timeframe Perspective
If you have truly mastered Lesson 1, you should now fully understand why the bearish trigger and stop-loss levels are set at these points.
CMX Gold (5-minute chart, as of 260828)View note
I. Macro Trading Positioning
1
Warsh’s speech this time may have been one of the longest Jackson Hole speeches in history. More important than what he said is that we now have a clearer picture of what kind of decision-maker he is.
When forming judgments about decisions and the people behind them, a clear understanding of who someone is comes first; their actions follow naturally.
Chart: Discussion in an earlier weekly note
I once said that Warsh would be more like a trader-version of a Fed chair. That implies two things, both of which will be the key determinants of his future decisions:
1）For traders, price matters far more than volume, because volume can be manufactured, is susceptible to interference, and to some extent can even lag. Only price is the one true reflection of what is happening here and now.On this point, we can expect price data to matter far more than data on quantities throughout his term.
2) Traders seek to react rather than anticipate, and to act at critical moments before volatility expands. In a trader’s eyes, those who try to predict the market are fools; no one can predict the market successfully forever.Warsh will not be a chair who offers forward guidance, nor one who speaks before the data do. So, watching market pricing itself will be more meaningful during his term than listening to what he says. Moreover, any unusual move could mark the start of a volatility expansion. If you are going to act, act alongside him; do not take the other side of the trend.
...
Below are some excerpts from his speech. Once you have read them, you will understand what I mean—or rather, its actually, when I first saw the text, I thought I was listening to a presentation at a traders’ conference, not a Fed chair’s remarks:
1/ Market information (REAL Information),FED needs clear MARKET SIGNALS
2/ Humility (listening and following), not naivety (thinking you know better)
3/ Trends, prices—the only true measure of “today’s economic activity”
4/ Factorials, margins, prices
Doesn’t this make things clearer?
2
In last week’s weekly note, regarding US30Y, I described it this way:
In short, all this means that 5.3% has at least become a hard threshold for now. Continuing to bet on further gains means taking the other side of Bessent. Of course, for yields to return below 5%, there would still need to be a turn in the war situation.
This week, it fell below the ascending channel that had been in place since early July, confirming the view that it constitutes a hard threshold, at least in the short term:
Chart: Hard threshold
US30Y(Weekly chart, as of 260830)Ariston ChannelThe weekly channel remains in bullish territory, but the oscillator has weakened, with the upper band at 5.304%
US30Y (daily chart, as of 260830) is currently tradingAriston Channelbelow the midpoint of the bearish channel (5.226%)
...
After Warsh began speaking at 10 in the morning, the market initially interpreted his remarks as hawkish: he emphasized the importance of inflation and said the situation remained under control, and that the 2% inflation target would not change. Long-dated bonds rose immediately, TLT moved higher, and yields fell; however, those moves were later reversed, and yields actually closed the day above their levels before the speech began. The front end of the yield curve reflected even stronger expectations of tightening, with the market pricing in a total of two rate hikes through next year, most of that expectation concentrated in the coming months.
The reason for the reversal is obvious; everyone actually knows that rate hikes cannot resolve the causes of current inflation. In other words, the Fed does need to discuss rate hikes and respond to inflation, but rate hikes themselves are not the right remedy.
What is really driving the economy right now is AI capital expenditure and its subsequent effects; beyond that, from the labor market to other areas of the economy, there is little sign that the economy is particularly strong.Rate hikes will not solve the problem; instead, they will further reinforce the divide in the real economy, where technology is stronger and non-technology is weaker.
Those interested can look back at previous weekly issues and posts from earlier this week discussing the relationship between Fed actions and the economy; I will not go into it further here. In short, whether or not rates are raised is not up for discussion; 1) itself is useless, and 2) whether rates are raised in the end depends entirely on the prices of technology trades themselves.
The only change is that the old market saying mentioned in “ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 280802” is that bond traders can stop panicking only once the Fed itself starts to panic The emphasis on speed suggests that Warsh has developed a sense of urgency: inflation has been above target for too long. To some extent, we now know that the Fed is watching this alongside us, so at least some of the panic can be shared.
Bond markets and precious metals have already led equities in pricing in a turn. As the market gradually realizes that this is a genuine policy shift, a broader range of risk assets may come under pressure starting next week.
Market capital may once again crowd into a handful of core stocks, while breadth weakens. Of course, new lows or a breakdown at the index level are less likely, because Trump could act at any time.
...
On the other hand, Warsh actually has political support for a rate hike today; if action is needed, it would be better to do it in 9, rather than 10, immediately before the 11-month election. Of course, he could also wait until 12, after the election.
That is all.
3
The most conspicuous item in Macro Drivers is agricultural commodity inflation; I will discuss this in the agricultural commodities section (as of 260830)
Chart: Macro Drivers positioning map
Shifts in macro-theme and thesis trades (as of 260830)
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260830)
Chart: Real financial conditions (market pricing) alongside a portfolio of precious metals, technology, and alternative assets
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 260830)
During the week, the monitored real financial conditions turned downward, leading precious metals, crypto, and global equities. Only tech did not follow suit.
4
Here’s another rather amusing thing, for everyone’s entertainment. In an interview this week, a reporter asked Trump about US Treasuries including what other measures he would take and what he thought of bond vigilantes,
Trump’s answer was as follows:The government has various ways to intervene, and the “ultimate intervention” is military force which it would use if necessary.
II. Tech Trading Positioning
1
KOSPI(Weekly chart, as of 260830)
KOSPI (daily chart, as of 260823)
The Korean index remains in a weekly down channel, with momentum showing no improvement and the rebound lacking strength. The daily chart is also below the midpoint of its down channel, with no bullish volume bar. Structurally, it still did not break above the Bull Trigger during the week. If momentum turns down or support breaks, that would offer an opportunity for another round of shorting.
...
SOXX(Weekly chart, as of 260830)
SOXX (daily chart, as of 260830)
SOXX, both the weekly and daily charts are in the Ariston Channel downtrend, and the weekly chart even closed below the channel’s lower boundary. The daily momentum beauty contest has not improved. A bullish volume bar appeared intraday on Thursday, but Friday’s events abruptly cut it short, and the market closed at the low. The structure is bearish.
STAR Market 50 (weekly chart, as of 260830)
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260830)
The lower boundary of the weekly up channel is at 1624.80, and the close is at the edge. A break below it would constitute a weekly downtrend. The daily structure remains bearish, and if you turn bullish here at PT, you may need to be prepared for losses. A more convincing renewed move upward would require not only reclaiming the low at 8.14, but also breaking above the high at 8.18.
Even so, the beauty contest has improved. The beauty contest framework reflects the choices made by capital within a particular market; it is relative behavior.The beauty contest also improved on a down day because, in fact, aside from tech trading, no other trades are really able to pull the market along. It can’t be helped.
A line from last week’s weekly report remains valid.That is, at least as of today, we are still in an era lacking imagination, and AI has become the only seemingly low-hanging fruit. Note: it is only seemingly so, but it is also the only one.
2
Tech Monitor Mainland Basket as an Asset (daily chart, as of 260830)
Some mainland tech names in the tech basket tried to turn bullish on Thursday and Friday. This time, too, the turn came from the bottom up, leading the index. The main trigger was NVDA’s earnings performance, The key is whether long positions can be held through the foreseeable risk of shocks next week.If they can, a further divergence of around one 20% between baskets can be expected.
Tech Monitor (daily chart, as of 260830)
The software market was accurately captured by Tech Monitor, and it is likewise a market of divergence.
Divergence mainly occurs in either Stage One or Stage Three of stage analysis:
The former involves unusual moves by leaders, where the spillover effect is crucial; the extent of that spillover determines whether Stage One (accumulation) can transition smoothly into Stage Two (advance).
The latter is a dual-track mean-reversion trade. Divergence begins after the leading sector enters a consolidation zone: the core names in the leading sector edge higher, while non-core names retreat and struggle to return to the high zone of 20 or 60 trading days earlier. Meanwhile, previously weak sectors see a rebound. Overall, performance may appear neither here nor there, but weakness has already emerged beneath the surface.
Stage Three (distribution) and Stage One (accumulation) are not absolutely distinct. Stage Three may turn into Stage One, and Stage One may also turn into Stage Three. No one can know in advance which way prices will move before they play out. The only thing we know is that if it is Stage One, the leaders within the consolidation range will continue to lead the Stage Two advance; if it is Stage Three, the leaders within the consolidation range will also remain relatively strong, or break down later.
So, for market participants, During Stages One and Three, it is especially important to be able to follow divergence trades from the bottom up.This is the time for relative trading.
...
More on this will be covered in the manual’s discussion of stage analysis. To some extent, my decision to write the manual is also self-serving: it lets me develop my thought process more freely without worrying that people will not understand. Consider this a preview; put it into practice yourself, and when you encounter it again later, things will suddenly become clear.
3
In addition, another thing to watch is NVDA: earnings far exceeded expectations, yet the share price formed a bearish reversal and showed a failed attempt to break to a new high:
NVDA(Weekly chart, as of 260830)
NVDA (daily chart, as of 260830)
Friday’s close produced an engulfing candle. The best-case scenario is that the engulfing candle can be negated midweek next week, and that the weekly close ends above the upper boundary of the weekly channel.
III. Global Equity Positioning
1
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260830)
GREK(daily chart, as of 260830)
GREK, the price continued to rise, but the beauty contest showed divergence, and take-profit levels were tightened to below the week’s trading low.
...
In addition, another fairly interesting development is the divergence between Taiwan and Korean equity trading. Since the tech sell-off in July, Taiwan has consistently outperformed:
EWT/EWY(daily chart, as of 260830)
...
EWT (weekly chart, as of 260830)
EWT (daily chart, as of 260830)
As a market with similarly high exposure to technology, EWT has remained within an ascending channel on the weekly chart, with the price closing above the middle band. The daily chart has turned bullish.
2
Global equity thesis trading anomalies (Economic) (as of 260830)
Global equity thesis trading anomalies (Structure) (as of 260830)
Four. U.S. Equity Market Positioning
1
SPX(Weekly chart, as of 260830)
SPX (daily chart, as of 260830)
SPX (hourly chart, as of 260830)
SPX is in an uptrend on both the weekly and daily charts, and is also trading well on the hourly chart. If you hold a long position, watch whether the lower bounds of the uptrend channels across all three time frames continue to provide support.
However, as an index, the risk/reward is indeed already very unattractive, so it is probably more appropriate to view it as background context.
2
MEME(daily chart, as of 260830)
As our core proxy for betting on market sentiment, MEME remains in a short position. The price above which we should not be short is above the high on the cover day, namely 8.21.
3
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260830)
Strong momentum above the green line; above the yellow line, we can take a shot; below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market will tend toward random fluctuations (as of 260830).
It has pulled back again and is approaching the yellow line.
Five. FX Market Positioning
1
USDKRW(daily chart, as of 260830)
The decline continued through the week. This trade has moved very smoothly since entry on Planet, and, looking back from today, it is the most tradable pair in the FX market. The take-profit level has been moved lower again, to near the upper edge of this small consolidation range.
...
2
USDBRL(Weekly chart, as of 260830)
USDBRL (daily chart, as of 260830)
Still holding a short position. Friday’s event-driven shock did not trigger our stop-loss, and the test of the event day’s high passed. On a broader time frame, the weekly chart is in a bearish Ariston Channel.
EWZ(daily chart, as of 260830)
The stop has been moved into profit, to below the low of the follow-through day.
3
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260830)
...
Six. Mainland China Trading Positioning
1
Narrative trade positioning (daily chart, as of 260830)
Pair trade positioning (daily chart, as of 260830)
2
Silver Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Many people feel that gold and silver futures have not actually moved much, that the shifts between long and short positions happen quickly, and that stability is lacking. That is indeed the case. But it would also be wrong to say that this round of precious-metals trading has not taken shape: the corresponding baskets of mining and precious-metals-exposed stocks have already risen by about 50% from their lows and have returned to the trading zone where momentum was last positive.
The exit level for these long positions is set below the low of the trading range formed during the week. Be mindful of the gap risk at Monday’s open.
Gold Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
The gold basket has likewise stalled at T1.
Electrolytic Aluminum Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Strontium Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
PTFE Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Fluorochemicals Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Defense Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Insurance Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
3
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260830)
Weekly gainers ranking for mainland China trading (as of 260830)
Seven. Precious metals positioning
1
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 260830)
CMX Gold (5-minute chart, as of 260828)View note
Gold turned bearish during the week, with losses widening on Friday following remarks, making it the first downside momentum day since the current rally began.
A friend asked why the holding period for gold trades seems to have become shorter, Actually, the holding period is not up to us; rather, it depends on how smoothly the price itself moves.In fact, throughout the previous two years, gold trades had a smooth trend that typically lasted at least 3-8 weeks; holding periods of several months were also very common, The fundamental reason was that gold was then in the most perfect uptrend:
CMX Gold (weekly chart, as of 260830)
This is gold’s weekly price action. On a longer time frame, you can see very clearly the resistance gold is facing;2026 is not 2024, nor even 2025; this is the fundamental reason the price action is not smooth.
As of now, the weekly chart is still in a bearish track, but momentum has not broken down; instead, it has rebounded upward again. As a rebound after a momentum peak, a move to touch the upper edge of the track is possible, but it will take time, and time is also the most precious thing. This broader backdrop is why we choose to remain in the market, and why we always keep a portion of our capital specifically for gold; but I also will not hold it passively.
GDX (daily chart, as of 260830)
A take-profit signal was triggered, and the position was closed.
2
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 260830)
The take-profit order was hit near the close, and the position was closed.
3
White precious metals:
NMX Platinum (daily chart, as of 260830)
NMX Palladium (daily chart, as of 260823)
Overall, the positions remain long, and prices are all near the upper boundary of their rising channels.
Eight. Alternative Asset Trade Positioning
1
Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260830)
During the week, we issued an alert when it reached T2, mainly because it hit the target level and also triggered the model’s risk alert to reduce the position. So far, the price action has begun to stall and is forming a consolidation pattern here.Accordingly, move the take-profit level to the point where this consolidation range breaks down.
From a broader perspective, the price has also returned to the upward channel on the weekly timeframe, making a further breakdown from here very unlikely. If there is a correction, the first level to watch is near the midline of the daily channel, and the second is the upper boundary of the weekly channel.
Little Yellow (weekly chart, as of 260830)
Little E (weekly chart, as of 260823)
Little E (daily chart, as of 260830)
Little E’s structure is slightly different, mainly because it did not successfully touch T2 as Little Yellow did. Therefore, its take-profit level should not be moved and should remain below the low of the day being followed.
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Nine. Soft Commodities
1
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
Agricultural Basket (daily chart, as of 260830)
Agricultural products continued their upward trend this week and approached T2. When we began buying, there was little discussion of the market; now it has become a key area of activity for speculators. As prices approach the previously high-volume trading area, the risk-reward ratio has begun to decline, Without a breakout and follow-through in broad overseas agricultural futures leading the way, a high may form above T2.
Another successful bet this year—this success belongs to all of us.
2
Cocoa (weekly chart, as of 260830)
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260830)
Compared with the bumpy journey of our gold and silver trades, the cocoa trade has been much more comfortable, Essentially, this is because, from the broader perspective of the weekly timeframe, it is a very standard second-stage uptrend trade.
...
Move the take-profit level to the lower edge of the dense trading zone, which is also where the upward trendline provides support.
3
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260830)
The price is still trading within the “block”; PT will not be moved.
...
4
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260823)
Unrealized profit at a new high; PT moved above the follow-through bar after the previous failed breakout; T1 triggered, reducing part of the position.
5
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Wrap | Ari's Weekly Wrap
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260830)
Sugar—the ultimate aesthetics of price action; T2 triggered, reducing part of the position, with the take-profit level for the remaining position placed at the bottom of this price block.
Raw sugar (weekly chart, as of 260830)
Like sugar, why is a daily trend so smooth and comfortable to trade? Because from the MTF perspective, the weekly chart also provides a good second-stage upward-trend backdrop. In the other three stages, you either lose time(for example, gold and silver; correspondingly, I choose the more sensitive swing structure rather than the less responsive structure used by other methods),or you lose capital(for example, those who lack a clear basis for entering and exiting, analyze all sorts of things, keep holding losing positions, and eventually find that the harder they try, the more they lose).
In essence, we are looking for smooth, comfortable second-stage structures.
6
Corn (daily chart, as of 260830)
Corn: the weekly range continued to widen, approaching T2. If it reaches that level, I will reduce part of the position and let the rest exit passively. The take-profit level has been moved above the high of the bar on which the model issued a reduction signal.
Corn (weekly chart, as of 260830)
Upward channel; the first week after the compression breakout was completed.
7
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260830)
Wheat, likewise: unrealized profit expanded rapidly this week; T1, take profits on part of the position, and wait for the rest to exit passively; move the take-profit level to the low of the follow-through bar on the breakout day.
...
Discussion of agricultural products and the so-called agricultural inflation cycle is growing louder. When we began trading agricultural products, there was almost no interest; the public account even received abuse from some strangers. Now, suddenly, there are agricultural bulls everywhere, and I don't like that.
The last time I said this was when trading crude oil.
The short term may be overheated; be mindful of the risk.
Ten. Some other things: uranium
1
URA (daily chart, as of 260830)
Uranium proxy: sold on a breakdown after Friday's open.
URA (weekly chart, as of 260830)
The reason this trade feels less comfortable is that the weekly chart is still in a downtrend channel, just like gold and silver. Only second-stage trades feel truly comfortable.
It's kind of you to think so highly of me, but I'm not important, and I have no intention of becoming famous. I'll keep my head down and work quietly; the content on our Planet is for our own community, and we try not to share it outside. Thank you all. Much appreciated, friends.
...
(End of full text)
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Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
