Trading Desk

XAUUSD I have said for months that the explosive move in gold begins only when it decouples from yields and the dollar. We are not there yet.

Higher oil -> higher inflation and inflation expectations -> higher yields -> lower gold. That chain remains intact. Friday made it obvious. Strong payrolls put another Fed hike back on the table, pushed yields and the dollar higher, and sent gold lower.

As long as the Iran war keeps oil elevated, it remains a headwind for gold, not a reason to chase it. Gold must start rising through higher yields and a stronger dollar before the next phase begins. Until then, do not front-run a decoupling that has not happened.

Technical

4.4K remains the support to hold. Reclaiming the broken ascending trendline puts the recent high back in play. A sustained break below 4.4K opens 4K, followed by 3.9K.

000001 399001

SPX NDX

For ES1! to climb back to its ATH, it must first reclaim the descending trendline.

At current oil prices, Trump is likely to pull another TACO. NQ1! held its ascending trendline support during the week, bounced from it, and led the market on Friday. The odds favor an upside breakout sometime next week.

The bull entry was back at 7,630. The next entry is a backtest of the descending trendline after the breakout, should it occur.