HSI has stalled below the 25.2K resistance. A sustained close above 25.2K opens the door to 27.3K. Unless HSI clears 25.2K, the rebound remains vulnerable. Another rejection puts 22.5K back in focus.
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HSI has stalled below the 25.2K resistance. A sustained close above 25.2K opens the door to 27.3K. Unless HSI clears 25.2K, the rebound remains vulnerable. Another rejection puts 22.5K back in focus.
00700.HK
BZ1!
Z1!
Z1!
Equities bounced as expected, as laid out here View note. NQ1! is trading above last Friday's HOD, while SOXX is trading above last Thursday's levels. This is precisely why any system that relies solely on technicals still requires human intervention. Otherwise, it gets rinsed over and over.
XAUUSD also bounced from 3.9K-4K. As I said, "3.9K-4K remains solid ST support." The floodgates never opened because the equity selloff never came, hence the bounce.
Trump has every incentive to keep pumping the market into the midterms and TACO on Iran to ease inflation pressure. Both would improve his position heading into the midterms, and both look increasingly likely.
For bulls, we are not out of the woods yet. I still expect heavy selling pressure once ES1! gets back to 7.6K.
We will continue to monitor PA across key assets as earnings from key names begin, starting with GOOGL after the close today.
BTC1!
The Houthis have blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (https://www.saba.ye/ar/news3746630.htm), as I warned they would at the beginning of the war and repeatedly over the past few weeks. Another 4.5M bpd has now been removed from the market.
Equity futures caught a bid, with SOXX opening slightly above key support today. The path of least resistance has shifted to the downside following Friday's breakdown. However, given that we have a wave of tech earnings this week and next, and that SPX is only roughly 100 handles below its peak, I think this remains a rotation rather than a highly correlated breakdown.
I still expect to see new lows in the coming weeks, but more signals are pointing to a relief rally first.
Also, watch out for a Trump TACO, given current oil inventory levels and the fact that another key strait is effectively closed.
NKD1! broke below the ascending trendline this week, reversing last week’s recovery. Selling accelerated into Friday, with price piercing 63.8K before closing back above it.
63.8K is the line in the sand. A sustained break below it opens the path lower. Bulls need a sustained move back above the ascending trendline to regain control.
BZ1!
BZ1!
XAUUSD If the AI bubble bursts, investors will look for somewhere else to hide, and many will turn to gold as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty and equity drawdowns.
I repeated this every few days throughout Q1, and it is worth repeating now. Gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis but trades like a risk asset during one. Once the floodgates open, nothing survives, including gold. The evidence that the AI bubble is beginning to burst is becoming increasingly clear. If it does, gold will likely fall with equities instead of acting as a safe haven.
This is especially true in the current macro setup. The SPR is still being drawn at a historically rapid pace, with inventories sitting near multi-decade lows. Hormuz traffic shows no sign of normalizing, and the 3-2-1 crack spread continues to hit record highs. Oil and refined products are keeping inflation pressure alive and pushing yields higher, adding another direct headwind for gold.
As I said a few weeks ago, gold must decouple from yields and the dollar before it can stabilize and start grinding higher. This remains the most important signal for anyone eager to buy gold dips.
Technically, 3.9K-4K remains solid ST support. I expect the descending triangle to resolve over the next week or two. If my view that the AI bubble is beginning to burst proves correct, the triangle will likely resolve lower unless gold can decouple from the dollar, which should rally during a sharp equity selloff.
NVDA remains above the ascending trendline. With SOXX now below 530, NVDA is the final missing piece.
Unless NVDA reclaims 208 over the next few sessions, the ascending trendline at around 196 should remain under pressure. A confirmed break below the trendline opens the door to 167 and would confirm that the AI trade has lost its most important leader.
01810.HK has extended the bounce and is now testing the descending trendline around 28. A confirmed break above it would put 36.9 back in play. If it is rejected here, the path of least resistance remains lower.
XOP has now cleared 161.6 and broken above the descending trendline, which signals that energy equities are starting to price in a return to March-level escalation in the Middle East.
00700.HKAs long as the descending trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the recent high around 490 as the next test. A sustained break back below it would put the long-term ascending trendline around 400 back in play.
META extended the bounce from 540-550 into the broken ascending trendline around 680-690, then reversed sharply. If META cannot stay green while the sector and broader indices are in the red, the narrative around its recent entry into the LLM race is unlikely to keep the stock afloat.
RB1!Gasoline bounced from 2.93 and tested 3.30 before pulling back. A sustained break above 3.30 opens the door to the May high. As long as 3.30 holds, price remains trapped between 2.93 and 3.30
BABA extended the low-90s bounce into 120, briefly traded above it, and then closed back below. The failed test puts the low-90s back in play.
A sustained close above 120 is still required before 146.4 comes back into play.
Z1!held the ascending trendline again and bounced back toward 10.6K, validating the breakout-and-backtest sequence from the past two weeks. As long as the ascending trendline holds, the path of least resistance remains higher, with the recent highs around 10.7K back in play. A sustained break below it would open a retest of the descending trendline.
000001
Significant breach. If it fails to climb back above 3.8K in the next few sessions, it’s likely to head lower.
SPX is following the same structure. It was rejected again from 7.58K-7.6K, the same area where I called the top. 7.27K is the first support, followed by 7.11K. A sustained close above 7.58K would negate the immediate downside path.
As warned last week, NDX broke below the ascending trendline and resolved the wedge lower. Price pierced 28.6K on Friday before closing back around the level.
28.6K is the line in the sand. A sustained break below it opens the door to 26.1K. NDX needs a sustained move back above the ascending trendline to invalidate the breakdown.
ES1! failed at our 7.63K resistance, reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday, and closed below the ascending trendline on Friday. It has now opted for the immediate breakdown path I outlined on Wednesday. It is likely to head lower, with 7.36K as the first support, followed by 7.14K. A close back above the trendline over the next few sessions would turn Friday’s break into a fakeout, which I think is very unlikely. I expect any retest from below to fail.
SOXX broke below 530 and the secular trendline from the 2008 low on Thursday. Friday's close below 530 confirmed the break. This is the first confirmed breakdown in a bellwether sector and likely marks the beginning of the end.
530 should cap any rebound. Bulls threw everything they had at defending the level on Friday but still failed to hold it into the close.
Unless SOXX reclaims 530 over the next few sessions, the path of least resistance remains lower, keeping pressure on NDX and ES.
MSFT needs to close above 395 to put bulls back in control. Another rejection there puts 342 back in play.
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