00700.HKAs mentioned, there was no real strength in this week’s rally. The bounce did nothing to change the technical structure across the key names and indices.
700 remains trapped inside the compressing wedge.
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00700.HKAs mentioned, there was no real strength in this week’s rally. The bounce did nothing to change the technical structure across the key names and indices.
700 remains trapped inside the compressing wedge.
HTI1! and HSI both bounced from our support levels as expected. HSI is up roughly 5% from support, while HTI was up 8% at this week’s peak.
As laid out in the desk note, HK bellwethers were not showing real relief before the bounce, and they are still not confirming the move now. That keeps this tactical, not fundamental.
That said, we are deep in the green. As long as the tape does not start showing stress, there is no need to act. Trail stops and protect the gains.
NIFTY (Nifty 50) bounced from the April lows, but 24.3K is still capping the move. Since the war started, crude has been the macro variable that matters most for India.
As Hormuz traffic improves and the oil risk premium fades, the odds of a sustained push above 24.3K improve. Without that break, upside remains capped, and failure at 24.3K keeps 22.1K-22.0K in play.
NKD1! (Nikkei 225) is pulling back into the rising trendline after a strong June move. The trend is stretched, but not broken yet. The rising trendline is the first line in the sand. As long as it holds, the path of least resistance remains higher. A sustained break below it opens the door to a backtest of 63.8K.
JP30Y (Japan 30-Year Yield) bounced sharply from 3.8% and is back above 4%. A sustained close above 4% opens the door to the prior high around 4.2%. Failure to hold 4% shifts the path back toward 3.8%.
601899 bounced from 25 as expected. That remains key support, coinciding with gold holding 3.9-4.0K. On the upside, 30 is the first resistance, followed by 32. A push into 30-32 should track gold toward 4.4K.
JP10Y (Japan 10-Year Yield) has reclaimed the late-June range and is back pressing the prior high around 2.8%. A sustained close above 2.8% keeps the upside path open and puts 2.9% in play. If 2.8% rejects again, the first downside level is 2.6%.
MAGS (Magnificent 7) bounced from the 60-63 support.
A sustained move above the trendline would put the mega-cap basket back in control. Failure here keeps the setup vulnerable and puts 63 back in play, followed by 60.
This matters for the broader tape. RUT and DJI are showing relative strength, but MAGS is not confirming yet. If mega-cap leadership fails while semis keep weakening, the index rally has less room for error.
601899 (ZIJIN) bounced from the 25 area as expected.View note
HSI1!
ES1! is heading towards our 7.6 K target. View note It broke out above the key 7520 pivot zone on Tuesday, then tested the 7575 area on Wednesday and again after NFP today.
As the charts below show, 7570 is another key level before the 7610 area. Relative weakness in tech dragged ES back toward the 7520 support zone, but not enough to push the index below it. As long as 7520 holds, we will likely see further upside into the holiday.
A break below 7520 can extend the downside toward 7500, but that should be temporary given the breakout unless ES spends more than 2 hours below 7520.
On the upside, a break above 7570 opens the door to the 7610 resistance area.
There is a rotation going on beneath the surface, which is driving daily sector moves that last one or two sessions. ES remains neutral most of the time, but as long as ES holds above 7520, the overall direction remains to the upside.
XAGUSD bounced from major uptrendline support, while XAUUSD is testing the key 3,900-4,000 area. If oil product prices catch down to crude, yields and the dollar should calm, and we'll likely see a gradual dovish pivot from the Fed. In that scenario, Silver can set up for a bounce toward downtrend resistance in the low 70s, while Gold works toward the 4,400 resistance area.
If product prices stay elevated, as gasoline and diesel still are, the Fed is more likely to stay hawkish. Yields and the dollar should stay firm. That keeps pressure on precious metals and could trigger another drawdown.
For Silver, a break below the major trendline opens the door to the 51-53 support area, followed by generational support around 48. For Gold, a decisive break below 3,900 opens the door to the next major trendline support around 3,700.
META bounced from the uptrendline support as first outlined at the beginning of the year.
View note
TSLA bounced from the uptrendline support (log) as expected, and price remains inside the compressing wedge.
View note
XAUUSD took another U-turn and tested the lower boundary of the key 3900-4000 support zone during Asia hours.
View note
KOSPI
Tick Tock...
#Global Indices
XAUUSD Gold bounced from our 4K support zone.
KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) has lost the steep rising trendline and is now bouncing back into 8.1K. That is where the bounce has to prove itself. A sustained move back above 8.1K would stabilize the tape. Failure there keeps 7.5K exposed, with 7.1K below if selling resumes.
VIX
VIX (Cboe Volatility Index) is starting to wake up. Daily has broken above the downtrend resistance, which is the first warning that volatility suppression is weakening. This is not full confirmation yet, but the chart is no longer cleanly capped.
21.6 remains the level that matters. A sustained break above 21.6 would confirm the move and open the door for volatility to pick up quickly. If equities lose support while VIX holds above the broken downtrend, volatility should expand fast. If VIX slips back below the broken trendline, this becomes another failed spike.
USDJPY
DXY reclaimed 100.2 and is now holding above the uptrendline support around 101.15.
As long as DXY holds the uptrendline support, the path remains higher toward 102, followed by the larger downtrend resistance. A break below 101.15 would be the first warning. A sustained loss of 100.2 would turn the whole move into another fakeout and put 99 back in play. Until then, do not fight the dollar bid.
XAGUSD Silver remains weaker than gold. It already lost the major uptrend support and found support around 55, below that I have a support zone around 51.8-53.1.
Silver can stage a relief bounce from current level as gold hit a critical support zone in the past few days.
For bulls, 51.8-53.1 must hold. A sustained break below this box would confirm another leg lower and open the door to a much deeper reset.
For bears, do not chase into support. Wait for a confirmed break below the box.
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