NIFTY1!
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NIFTY1!
NIFTY1!
XAUUSD Gold breached the key support zone around 4700-4750, after which we saw a sharp dive into the 4.5K support level.
If gold reclaims 4.5K, we could see a solid rally back to retest the trendline around 4750.
Otherwise, we could see a deeper dive into the 4.2-4.3K zone, with final support around 4K.
XAUUSD Gold backtested the major trendline.
If it doesn't reclaim above this trendline in the next few sessions, it'd be a confirmed bearish signal, which could lead to more downside with the next support sitting around 4.2-4.3K if 4.5K does not hold.
SPX bounced from our 6.55k support level right at the open. A clean break below this level will open the floodgate.
SPX did nothing over the past three days. The first two sessions rallied, only to puke after yesterday’s PPI and FOMC. Technicals haven’t changed. I still expect a test of 6.55K, followed by a strong bear market rally. A clean break below 6.55K opens the door for a test of the 6.1K support.
NDX rebounded, only to reverse at the uptrend resistance. A break below 24.2K will activate a true bear market that most current market participants have never experienced before.
SPX
As warned.
XAGUSD I warned that silver was likely to head much lower when it was trading around 90. Now it's around 70.
Similar to gold, it sits at a critical support level.
A break from here will lead to a retest of the major trendline in the low 60s.
NDX opened below the key 24.2K today, but remember we need a close below this level, and for a big trend reversal, a weekly close is preferable. Patience is key.
CL1!
CL1! WTI (CL) has been lagging other crude benchmarks such as Brent, and especially Oman and Dubai crude.
They tend to move in tandem and by similar magnitudes, but Oman and Dubai started to diverge on March 9, and Brent started to diverge this Monday. This is because the impact of oil shortages takes time to spread, and those closest geographically feel it first.
If the war drags on for the next few months, we should see more convergence as inventories run dry.
For now, Brent is heading toward last Monday's high, and 99 to 100 remains a key level that WTI (CL) must break decisively to see more upside.
DJIEdging lower, 45K appears inevitable.
Placing a stop at breakeven
GC1!
reopened long at 4705
GC1!
I'm placing a stop at breakeven.
GC1!
Q：If gold breaks below 4700, same for XAGUSD?
A：Silver also sits at critical support. A clear break here will lead to a test of the low 60s.
XAUUSD =4700-4750 is a very, very, very important support. If it doesn't bounce from here and we get a confirmed break below this level, it's heading much, much lower.
GC1!
XAUUSD Gold was dumped to 4750 overnight, where I called the bottom.
Gold rallied 30 handles over the next 20 minutes, but it quickly reversed, and we closed at breakeven.
I reopened at 4705, where gold rallied another 30 handles in just 10 minutes, yet it reversed again, and we were forced to close at breakeven once more.
Note that our two failed attempts saw decisive yet unsustained bounces, and so far, the price action does not look rosy, so be cautious.
For those still in the trade, a stop is paramount.
I warned about this selloff when gold was trading above 5.3K back on 03/03. I also warned countless times since the beginning of the year that gold underperforms during a crisis.
Now it sits right on this critical support. This trendline has acted as support for the last six months.
But if we get a clean break below this level, gold should head much lower.
XAUUSD
XAUUSD Gold=4700-4750 is a very, very, very important support. If it doesn't bounce from here and we get a confirmed break below this level, it's heading much, much lower.
CL1! BZ1! MAGS
Our stagflation thesis is coming true with each passing day as the war drags on, as demonstrated by yesterday's PPI data. Sustained high oil prices will lead to higher inflation and higher long end yields, which will destroy all assets, especially long duration assets like MAGS.
HG1! If copper doesn't reclaim the key 5.55 level in the next few sessions, it's heading to test the lower channel around 4.9.
What if I was just a little early, and this is only a fakeout?
SPX lifeline
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