ES1! resistance levels: 6836-6841
ES support levels: 6805-6810, 6790-6795, 6760-6765
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ES1! resistance levels: 6836-6841
ES support levels: 6805-6810, 6790-6795, 6760-6765
BTC1!
#Bitcoin seems to generate more equity buy signals than sell signals. View note
Chart: BTC/USD and S&P 500 · BTC Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
SOXX Daily
NQ1! Daily
NVDA Daily
Trump has canceled interviews with finalists for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, which were initially scheduled for this week. He has also suggested that he has already made up his mind about who should lead the central bank. The prediction market has Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair, with an 84% likelihood.
Global equities showed some recovery, posting small gains. Tech led the rally, though with narrow breadth—60% of stocks within the S&P 500, or 8 out of 11 sectors, finished lower. AAPL, NVDA, and MSFT were the primary drivers of the index-level gain. Notably, NVDA remains below the resistance line, while NQ1! finished above it.
ES1! played our script precisely today, reversed lower from the low 6860 area, and the selloff stopped at one of the levels I gave in the opening comments (6816–6820). Tape is getting increasingly unstable.
ES1! resistance levels: 6861-6864
ES support levels:6827-6831, 6816-6820, 6790-6795
NVDA Daily
NQ1! Daily
Strong demand for Japanese government bonds helped steady Asian markets on Tuesday after hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda on Monday triggered a global selloff and fueled talk of carry trades starting to unwind. Sam Altman told employees Monday the company was declaring a "code red' to improve ChatGPT quality and would delay other products as a result. OpenAI plans to launch a new reasoning model next week that it claims will outperform Gemini 3.
Futs are higher overnight. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly firmer. NQ1! remains in a tight range between the two uptrend lines. NVDA remains capped below the resistance level and, as we noted yesterday, it appears we will need NVDA to do the heavy lifting if we are to extend the rally further.
BTC1!
Fed liquidity has been a leading indicator for Bitcoin #BTC View note
Chart: US liquidity and BTC · BTC Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
ES1! support levels: 6793–6795, 6760–6765.
ES resistance levels: 6825–6830, 6841–6845.
This week's most important pivot is 6760–6765. I am expecting a test of this level in the first half of the week. If it is broken, there is an elevated chance that December could be a very volatile month, potentially closing below the low of November, even if we still get some sort of Santa rally in the final days of the year.
NVDA Daily, remains muted. With NQ1! starting to retrace, we may need NVDA to do the heavy lifting if we are going to grind higher.
NQ1! 1h, it tagged the uptrend resistance line on Sunday's open and had since traced from it. It's now trading between the two key resistance levels we outlined weeks ago.
NQ1! Daily
November was a rollercoaster month. We managed to call the most volatile week and specifically warned against turning bullish after NVDA earnings. The following day we saw a sharp reversal and again warned against turning bearish right after that move. Now we are only about 1% away from ATH.
Futs are lower overnight following a strong week of rebound. Bond yields are higher across the globe after the BoJ governor said the BoJ will thoroughly discuss the possibility of a rate hike at its coming meeting, boosting expectations that tightening could resume this year. Most are blaming this for the overnight weakness. BxC dived following this and is now trading around 86k. (As per platform rules, we cannot comment on BxC here and any charts related to it were auto deleted. All comments related to BxC will be posted on X: https://x.com/RealSean_G.) Trump said on Sunday that he has decided on his pick for the next Fed chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver interest rate cuts. Metals continue to outperform, with Copper and Silver making new highs. I remain bullish on this complex and reiterate that we should see GC1! = 5000 by the end of 2026.
SPX P/C ratio has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022
BTC1!
#BTC #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD
Not sure why you're so surprised
Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
BTC1!
Not sure why you're so surprised
Chart: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual · Asset Tag: CME Bitcoin futures (BTC1!).
ES1! resistance levels: 6811-6812, 6823-6825, 6839-6842
ES support levels: 6788-6790, 6770-6771, 6740-6745
GOOGL's P/E is on track to hit a decade high
NQ1! 1h, retraced from the declining top-line resistance
ES1! reversed sharply from our 6730 resistance yesterday but managed to stage a strong rebound shortly after. Market breadth has been very solid over the past two days, with noticeable laggards such as META, LULU and CMG finally starting to catch up. Growing expectations for a 12/10 cut and positioning dynamics remain the key drivers supporting this tape. In addition, Kevin Hassett told Fox News that he would accept the Fed chair position if offered, which further reinforces expectations for a more accommodative policy path ahead. Within Tech, dispersion stays elevated as GOOGL's Gemini 3 and its TPU story continue to attract flows. As expected, GOOG's strength has effectively offset the drag from NVDA's decline. Gold has also regained momentum in recent sessions. As discussed before, we continue to see a clear path for gold to reach 5k by the end of 2026.
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