ES1! resistance: 6689-6692, 6705-6710
ES support 6649-6654, 6620-6623, 6570-6572
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ES1! resistance: 6689-6692, 6705-6710
ES support 6649-6654, 6620-6623, 6570-6572
ES1!1h
Futures clawed back to flat after an early wobble during Asian hours. The impulse came from fresh White House chatter on tariff relief for autos and from Trump signaling that the additional 100% China tariff won't go into effect and reiterating plans to meet Xi in two weeks, which took some of the edge off macro anxiety. Front-end vol stayed elevated—VIX was close to 30 overnight, the highest since April. Regional banks had another rough session after Western Alliance and Zions disclosed exposures linked to alleged borrower fraud, reigniting concerns about underwriting discipline and tail risk in certain loan books. It's the second-worst session since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023.
As we projected, ES1! retraced from the mid-channel yesterday and managed to break below the channel support overnight. However, the Trump administration's news pump brought it back to the channel. The tape is weak; Trump has TACOed almost everything he said back on Oct 10, yet the market is still down 2% from its peak and VIX stays elevated.
ES1! was once again rejected at the mid-channel as we projected
ES1! support: 6719-6721, 6700-6702, 6680-6685, 6640-6645
ES resistance 6755-6760, 6788-6791
A break below 6720 will initiate a move towards 6700 in the morning, but if it holds, we may be stuck between 6720-6760 for the day
ES1! 1h, taggling around the mid-channel
This reversal confirms that ES1! will breakdown below the channel support when it tests it next time. In this case 6360-6370 is the next support, followed by 6200.
ES1! 1h
Futures strengthened overnight and are trading near pre-market highs as earnings overshadow US–China trade tensions. Powell said the Fed may approach the stopping point for balance-sheet runoff in coming months and reiterated downside risks to employment.
ES1! tested 6594 (also Friday's gap), then rallied before a late 30-minute fade. Overnight, the bounce carried into the 6740–6750 area. This is the level I mentioned a couple of days ago—I said I'd buy put spreads if it was tested that day. We could still see a reversal from this level, as it's the first retest of the breakdown and a mid-channel resistance zone that can produce a reversal. If it does, we should retest Friday's after-hours low. Watch Mag7 and NQ1!; a negative divergence there would likely precede a bigger reversal.
ES resistance levels: 6740-6750
ES support levels: 6719-6720,6706-6708,6685-6690
ES1! support levels: 6618-6621, 6595-6600, 6550-6555
ES resistance: 6650-6655, 6670-6675
The market is in risk-off mode again this morning, with ES1! and NQ1! down more than 1% and the VIX back above 20 following Monday's bounce. The China overhang has intensified: Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean; export-license scrutiny for rare-earth magnets has tightened since September; EU officials are calling for a tough response; and Bessent has accused China of harming global growth. Trump's lumber tariffs take effect today. Fed Chair Powell speaks today at 12:20 p.m. ET. September CPI report, originally scheduled for release on Wednesday, has been rescheduled for October 24.
Our prediction last week of a Thursday–Friday bloodbath proved correct, and the market's excuse to sell turned out to be tariff-related, look familiar? ES1! then accelerated to the downside after breaking through 6750.
ES1! 1h, taggling around the trendline
Japan's ruling coalition collapsed after Komeito withdrew support for Sanae Takaichi's LDP— a major setback before she's even secured the PM role. XAUUSD popped again, the yen firmed, and JGB futures rose. Prediction markets now put Takaichi's odds at ~72% (down from 99%). Despite the BLS shutdown, CPI will still be ready before the next Fed meeting. On equities, yesterday's Mag7/NDX-led dip was bought and ES1! closed back above its trendline. ES ~6750 is the key ST support; without a decisive break, odds favor more buy-the-dip over a larger pullback.
ES1! managed to close above the trendline. Key level to watch is ES=6750
Bloodbath in precious metals suggests the deleveraging may have begun. If selling continues, they'll likely raise cash by selling stocks and crypto. ES broke below 6780, the Dow is broken, but NDX is still holding 25100, which is the key support. They may finish it tonight. Also keep in mind that ES1!= 6750 must be taken out. Once it is, the downside becomes easier.
XAUUSD remains above 4k even on the back of a Gaza ceasefire deal, overshadowed by the unresolved U.S. government shutdown. Mag7 is down 1.5% since its 9/23 ATH, while NQ1! is up 1.5% since 9/23. Note that Mag7 has been fueling the market in both directions, and this divergence could lead to a correction in NQ. However, the market needs a reason to sell—a trigger to get the ball rolling. As long as that doesn't come, the market finds something to buy every day, with AI infrastructure spending headlines popping up every other day. This is how it has advanced so far.
ES1! resistance levels: 6814-6816
ES support levels: 6790-6793,6780-6782,6750-6755
ES1! resistance levels: 6779-6782, 6793-6795
ES support levels: 6761-6763, 6740-6745
Futures were higher overnight after yesterday's dip was bought. AI remains the driver: Musk's xAI is reportedly upsizing its round to $20B, including $2B in Nvidia equity. In Japan, likely next premier Sanae Takaichi faces coalition pushback—a risk that helped propel gold above 4k—with prediction market odds swinging from 99% to 76% before rebounding to ~95%. Mag7 led a small pullback in NDX/SPX yesterday, but I don't think a broader correction has started.
ES1! resistance levels: 6804-6806, 6821-6823
ES support levels: 6788-6789,6774-6776
The SPX logged a 7th straight gain yesterday after AMD and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership before the open. However, an afternoon selloff in tech—especially semis—was notable. The next local highs are likely to be preceded by a divergence in the Mag7. As I noted last week: "The market hasn't priced in shutdown risk at all, and I think de-risking begins in the second half of next week if there's no sign of a deal by next weekend." This is still in play as prediction markets show deal odds of ~28% for Oct 10–14 (down from 36%) and ~68% after Oct 15 (up from 48%) since Oct 3.
The tape remains supported by recurring AI capex headlines from OpenAI/NVDA/AMD/Intel, and we're trading at fresh ATHs on news of the OpenAI–AMD partnership. AMD is up 25% pre-market, while NVDA is −1%. Nikkei jumped almost 5% after the ruling party elected Sanae Takaichi—viewed as a more Trump-like, pro-stimulus, business-friendly, pro-lower rates leader—despite prediction markets giving her only 20% odds pre-vote. The U.S. government shutdown continues (Senate votes on a stopgap today); Fed speakers are lined up this week, with FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
ES1! resistance levels: 6795-6796,6807-6810
ES support levels: 6777-6780,6762-6763,6740-6745
Watch out for relative weakness in Mag7, which could confirm a local high in the coming days.
ES1! resistance levels: 6777-6779
ES support levels: 6757-6758,6740-6745
Futures are positive overnight, with NQ1! up more than 0.5%, as the market continues to shrug off the government shutdown and the Labor Department's jobless claims are delayed. The tape remains firm, as we expected. Not much has changed from yesterday.
ES1! resistance levels: 6788-6791,6796-6797
ES support levels: 6765-6767,6755-6756,6738-6740
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