YM1! 4h
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YM1! 4h
ES1! 4h, showing strong support around 6390
ES1! tested the low 6400s in the overnight session. The 6400 area happens to be the mid BB, so a pause here is normal. Keep in mind we're coming off a divergent double top on the Dow and the lifetime resistance line on the SPX. In our view, the downside hasn't truly started yet, and a minimum 10% initial drop from the top would be typical before discussing a multi-day or multi-week retracement bounce.
ES resistance levels: 6433-6436,6456-6459,6475-6480
ES support levels: 6415-6417,6402-6405,6389-6393
As noted, it's plausible to see new lows below the ON low during RTH. If 6389–6393 is tested in the morning session, odds favor a good intraday bounce from there. Conversely, an early test of 6456-6459 will likely meet stiff resistance, and an intraday downside reversal is likely if that test happens in the first half of the session.
ES1! support levels: 6455-6458, 6435-6437, 6400-6403
ES resistance levels: 6478–6481, 6488-6488, 6497-6499
ES1! 4h, showing the index rejected from mid-channel and a support around 6460 which had been tested many times in the past few trading days.
ES1! resistance levels: 6498-6502, 6515-6516
ES support levels: 6485-6488,6473-6475,6460-6462
Over the past few days, narrow, choppy action has created many nearby support and resistance levels, but the key support remains the low 6460 area. Fridays have recently been good buy the dip days. If that pattern changes today, it would be a constructive sign that we may see better volatility next week.
ES1! 4h the index reversed at the 50% line. The 6390-6400 area is the next major support zone.
Futures plunged after a worse than expected PPI, indicating producers and manufacturers are paying higher input costs.
ES1! resistance levels: 6485-6490,6500-6510
ES support levels: 6445-6451,6433-6434,6400-6405
Futures surged on yesterday's fake CPI and on constant grifting and speculation by the administration that the Fed should cut 50 bps in September. Just remember what happened with the jobs data recently. While the cost of basic needs from transportation to rent to food has risen an average of 15% over the past 12 months, we somehow get this CPI print despite the tariffs. Meanwhile, the administration is actively seeking to replace the heads of the institutions that collect, analyze, and release this economic data in order to suppress and alter reality. These were not in my playbook at all. Now we have these fraudulent practices to consider on top of everything else we deal with.
So far, the market is going with what's presented to it. But remember how the market reacted to the recent jobs data correction. NQ1! dropped 1k points in 36 hours. So either the administration completely seizes and changes the information flow, or reality hits back harder soon.
ES1! support levels: 6475-6478, 6460-6462, 6445-6450,
ES resistance levels: 6498-6451
I think the speculation that the Fed will cut 50 bps in September is partially priced in, but it's not clear how the market will react after the actual cut. If past rate cuts are any indication, and if the economy is truly weak, these cuts will likely mark the beginning of a LT market weakness. In that case, the market may start to front-run this cycle.
ES1! 4h, the support around 6390 is holding so far.
Indices pulled back ahead of today's CPI release. ES1! tested key support area around 6390 multiple times between yesterday's open and now. Multiple tests of this support ahead of the CPI release imply the market may react negatively to the inflation numbers today. However, many factors could influence the outcome, including ongoing data manipulation by the administration to maintain its narrative.
ES support levels: 6385-6390, 6361-6363, 6347-6350
ES resistance levels: 6411-6415, 6436-6437
ES1! support levels: 6371-6373, 6363-6365, 6345-6349
ES resistance levels: 6390-93,6415-6416, 6428-6430
YM1! Daily, exhibiting double top
RTY1! this index broke down below the wedge support ahead of all other indices and is leading on the downside.
Yesterday's gap and crap opening created a 90 handles range day, as ES1! sold off from the opening high all the way into the late session. The index recovered most of the losses in the final 10 minutes, and now it is set to open higher again. Keep in mind that all this choppy action around the lifetime resistance line is building a base for the next big correction. Secondary indices like RTY1!, which tends to lead on the downside, are already positioned for a selloff that could take us to new lows below the August 1st low.
Futures rallied once ES1! broke out above 6380 area in overnight session.
ES resistance levels: 6415-6417, 6422-6424, 6430-6435
ES support levels: 6392-6394, 6379-6382, 6365-6370
6392 is a key support, if it doesn't hold, a full gap fill is likely in play.
ES1! reversed lower from the 6380 area yesterday and tested 6310 during the overnight session, from where the index bounced all the way to 6358 in the premarket. There is notable resistance around 6360–6365. If we are to see new lows below last Friday's low as projected, ES should not exceed 6380 by much.
ES support levels: 6328-6330, 6304-6305,
ES resistance levels: 6349-6352, 6360-6365, 6378-6382
I am expecting a continuation of the downside, but there may be a rally attempt early in the session. If so, it will likely fail at a lower high (below yesterday's high).
SPX filled Friday's opening gap yesterday. Keep in mind that the index is constrained by the lifetime resistance line, and upside attempts will likely fail quickly. Our forecast for an early week rally followed by a downside reversal by mid-week remains in play.
ES1! support levels: 6348-6351, 6330-6332, 6317-6320
ES resistance level: 6378–6381
Watch NQ1! closely to see whether it shows relative weakness led by M7. It would be a good sign the bounce is coming to an end.
SL @ 6357
ES1!
Opened 1/2 ES1! short at 6331.5
NQ1! Daily, broke below channel support
ES1! 4h
SPX Daily, reversed from resistance line last week
Last week's sharp reversal already created a severe ST oversold condition, especially for NQ1!, which had been negatively diverging for weeks. This oversold condition will likely result in a small bounce that may fade within a day or two.
ES1! support levels: 6293–94
ES resistance levels: 6312–15
A break below 6293 could lead to 6269–6271, after which new lows below last week's low may be in play.
Conversely, a break above 6315 could extend the upside to 6325, then 6335–6338, which is a major pivot that may trigger a downside reversal if tested before noon.
I expect the sell-off to continue after this brief early-week bounce. A ST tradable low may form if today's gap up completely fades and we open lower tomorrow. Otherwise, this initial pop is likely a sucker bounce.
My intermediate term target for this move is below ES 5900.
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