ES1! support levels: 6285–6288, 6269-6270, 6230-6240
ES resistance levels: 6305–6307
I expect ES to test either the 6230–6240 range or the 6200 area sometime this week, where we may see the next local low.
Loading...
ES1! support levels: 6285–6288, 6269-6270, 6230-6240
ES resistance levels: 6305–6307
I expect ES to test either the 6230–6240 range or the 6200 area sometime this week, where we may see the next local low.
DXY Daily
ES1! 1h
Q：Sean, do you still believe that we could fake out the life time resistance at some point before major correction?
A：Possible but unlikely, given all those trade talks went well tweets and NVDA making new highs didn't help the index break the resistance.
Q：It gonna be full position short NQ1! ?
A：yes
I plan to add NQ1! short if ES1! trades above 6352 during the morning session.
Q：Hi, Sean. do you close your position, what about VIX future? is it a good choice for us if ES1! still very bull
A：it remains open.
No. VX doesn't appear attractive for either side. Since SPX is facing the lifetime resistance, a reversal could be sizeable and VIX could soar. At the same time, ES could chop around the line for a while before reversing. If that happens, VX loses value due to contango and is currently at its most expensive percentiles relative to VIX, as shown in the VX1!/VIX chart.
Q：Hi, Sean. What does VX1!/VIX ratio mean? What is the relationship between the VX/VIX ratio and SPX index?
A：VIX futures divided by the VIX index tends to lead SPX corrections, as I outlined in the chart.
NQ1! Daily, chops around the channel line
VX1!/VIX remains in sell territory
NQ1!/ES1! ratio still at the resistance
NQ1! started to diverge negatively at the channel line, but this correction appears to be rotational, as RTY1! and YM1! are showing relative strength. If this trend continues, it may take a few days before NQ stabilizes. We will likely see further selling in tech, especially during the morning session today, which could be an opportunity for a profitable exit before noon.
I'll be looking to close the NQ short on a good dip, which could be around 22500.
If we get a sharp dip in the morning session, we will likely see a good rebound from that low.
ES1! support levels: 5230–5234, 5195-5200
resistance levels: 5265–5270
NQ Daily
ES1! support levels: 6235–38,6220–22, 6200
resistance levels: 6255–57, 6267–70, 6282-84.
The market remains very extended under strong sell conditions, but the incoming news flow, which are mainly orchestrated by a hysterical administration that seems to believe its approval rating is tied to the severity of the bubble it inflates, is preventing any sustainable pullback.
We will likely see a monthend markup today, meaning dips will continue to be bought. In this case, it may be wise to close our partial NQ1! short and consider a long day trade on a dip. However, keep in mind that this rally is driven by news flow, and conditions can reverse quickly, just as they did Friday afternoon when the indices sharply dropped into negative territory.
NQ1! Daily, broke through the channel resistance on Friday
VX1!/VX ratio, the volatility sell signal remains in effect.
NQ1!/ES1! Daily, at the resistance line
SPX Daily, showing the lifetime resistance line around 6300-6350
SPX monthly, it's once again approaching its lifetime resistance line. I believe the index will overshoot this level by a few % points before reversing again. It's likely w'e'll spend a few months around this area
NQ1! daily, tagged the broken channel from below. Structurally, the index is expected to test low 21k area over the next couple of weeks.
Futures ramped last night on China trade deal pump, but PCE data came in hotter than expected. Both personal income and personal spending were significantly lower than forecast. The data is recessionary and points toward stagflation.
Today could be a trend day, especially since we've already seen sell signals triggered by volume, volatility, and sentiment indicators (i.e., PC ratios). Given the technical setup, the underlying macro conditions, and the fact that the Administration has likely exhausted its pump material (war de-escalation, tariff deals, etc.), we may be looking at a significant selloff right from the open.
Fridays tend to behave irrationally, so there's a small chance this holds up due to 0DTE flows, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
I'm currently short NQ1! and had planned to size up to a full short position, but NQ has already dropped significantly from the premarket high. I'll wait for better opportunities to go full short whether it'll be ES1!, NQ, or RTY1!.
VX1!/VIX ratio suggests imminent weakness that is likely to last about one week.
open 1/2 NQ1! short at 22642.5
NQ1! daily, showing a trendline resistance at around 22,620. NQ came close to this level during the overnight session.
Meridian is a financial research, information, and publishing service. Meridian is not registered or licensed as an investment adviser, broker or dealer, commodity trading adviser, portfolio manager, exchange, trading venue, or custodian. The Service does not execute trades for you, accept or transmit your orders, hold or safeguard your assets, exercise discretion over your portfolio, connect to or control your brokerage, exchange, wallet, or other financial account, operate a trading venue, or automatically place, mirror, or copy trades. Any position, transaction, order, allocation, portfolio, or Performance shown or described through the Service is hypothetical, simulated, or model-based Financial Content. It does not represent, and need not correspond to, trading, holdings, or results in any actual account. Any price, rate, yield, spread, level, valuation, size, timestamp, target, stop, entry, exit, or other value displayed, recorded, calculated, or referenced in Financial Content may be indicative, modeled, estimated, historical, delayed, composite, closing, settlement, evaluated, or derived. It is not a firm bid, offer, or quote as to price or size and is not evidence that any transaction was executed. All such Performance is hypothetical, simulated, or model-based. It does not represent trading in a funded account, the performance of an actual customer or Meridian account, an audited record, or results achieved by any user. Hypothetical, simulated, backtested, and model-based results have inherent limitations and do not represent or guarantee future results. Any compounded, cumulative, indexed, or otherwise aggregated Performance is a mathematical calculation based on Meridian’s methodology and assumptions. It does not represent portfolio performance and may not reflect position sizing, capital allocation, notional exposure, instrument multipliers, overlapping positions, cash flows, leverage, or capital constraints. Meridian Parties may directly or indirectly hold, acquire, dispose of, or otherwise transact in an issuer, asset, instrument, or related instrument discussed in Financial Content. A Meridian Party’s trading or position need not align with any Financial Content or another Meridian Party’s position or view. Financial Content is general and impersonal information for an audience. It is not individualized investment advice. See Financial Content and Related Risks in the Terms.