Open 1/4 ES1! long at 5940
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Open 1/4 ES1! long at 5940
Closed NQ1! at 21100 for 290 handles
Closed 1/2 NQ1! at 20830 for +20 to reduce weekend risk
Q：How about short TN1! position？Can we still hold it?
A：I was stopped out at 114'11.View note
The current market decline has sparked a significant rally in 10-year government bonds—a classic deflationary move unlike anything we've seen in recent years. Funds are shifting money from stocks to bonds, following the traditional 40/60 allocation strategy. The market is clearly more concerned about economic weakness and deflation than inflation. Given this, I believe the current rally in 10-year bonds could extend further.
ES1! broke below the most-watched support around 5935 yesterday, huge amount of stops was cleaned while AAII bulls hit a level only seen near historical market bottoms. While I don't believe this will be a significant market bottom, I think the market will likely enter a period that resets sentiment. In other words, I expect price action that could make the bearish crowd doubt their stance. This may flip my original projection of a market bottom around March opex; instead, we might see another local top around that time.
Also, ES1! almost completed its swing as well. If we see lower low tomorrow, i might add some SPX call expiring next week. Once ES is back to 6030-6050, it should reverse and take us to 5400-5500
I was wrong this afternoon, but NQ1! nearly finished the entire swing and is poised to test 21500. So holding the position.
The other 1/4 was stopped out at 5935.5
ES1!
Long NQ1! at 20810
Close 1/4 ES1! at 5973.5 for 38 handles.
As I mentioned in this post, NQ1! could break below Tuesday's low before bouncing. And this is exactly what happened. We are now up by 50 handles on our ES1! long.
Open 1/2 ES1! long at 5935.5
As I noted in morning post, ES1! would stall at 6020 before collapsing. The algos dumped that level as if there were no tomorrow.
Futures rallied overnight, with ES1! testing the low 6000s before stalling. ES may try to reach its 100-day MA (~6020) in the morning but could stall there or reverse lower. With NVDA earnings after the close, today's RTH session should be calmer than yesterday.
If NVDA earnings are bad, NQ1! may retest triangle support and form a new low below yesterday's low before bouncing. It could then rally to the upper resistance or mid-triangle before breaking down into March opex, where a bottom may form.
VX1! printed a shooting star. Today could be the ST low if ES1! opens above 5995. We might test 6020-6030 in RTH, and NVDA earnings could get bids even on bad results.
NQ1! bounced at the trendline in the 21000 low area, as noted in my morning post.
We flipped long at LOD and closed at HOD.
Closed NQ1! at 21275 for 225 handles
Filled
ES1!
Set SL at 114'11
TN1!
Open 1/2 ES1! long at 5939
Open TN short at 113'24'5
TN1!
Open 1/2 NQ1! long at 21050
Closed ES1! short at 5954.5 for 207.75 handles
Closed NQ1! short at 21142 for 608 handles
Closed ES1! short at 5954.5 for 207.75 handles
Closed NQ1! short at 21142 for 608 handles
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