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US Dollar Index Futures · ICEUS
CURRENT VIEW
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DXY99.539 The relief from Treasury's expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks has fully faded. Bond vigilantes have pushed yields higher again, helping DXY reclaim 99.38 and USDJPY reclaim its ascending trendline.
This is exactly what I expected last week: limited downside in DXY despite the dollar's structural weakness, and a continued grind higher in USDJPY as long as 155.5 held. Warsh's hawkish message accelerated both moves.
Technical
DXY has reclaimed 99.38. As long as 99.38 holds, 101.73 remains in play. A sustained move back below 99.38 puts the broken descending trendline back in play.
DX1!
The cross-asset reaction to Treasury's expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks was immediate. Long-end yields fell sharply, DXY98.72 dumped, USDJPY158.423 faded, and XAUUSD4,492.07, XAGUSD66.631, and B** rallied.
As I have said repeatedly, Trump cares about only four things: 1) equity-market performance; 2) inflation prints; 3) Treasury yields; and 4) approval ratings. Of the four, yields matter most. He has struggled to keep oil contained, and oil staying elevated for longer has continued to push inflation expectations and long-end yields higher. As the US30Y5.21 yield reached a new 20-year high, he was forced to have Bessent pull a TACO on long-end yields by expanding Treasury's long-end buyback support.
The move immediately relieved pressure on long-duration assets, but I would not mistake it for a change in the underlying trend. As we have seen repeatedly in USDJPY, temporary policy measures rarely reverse a fundamentally driven move. Reversing the rise in long-end yields would require either normalization through the Strait of Hormuz or a stringent budget. I see little prospect of either.
Gold delivered a decisive break above 4.4K as long-end yields and the dollar fell. The inverse relationship between long-end yields and precious metals remains intact. My concern that yields and precious metals might continue rising in tandem has not materialized, at least for now. Had that regime taken hold, real equity returns would have moved deeeeeep into negative territory. For gold bulls, I would prefer an entry on a pullback toward 4.4K, where the risk is clearly defined against the breakout level. Silver also bounced from our 63 support.
On equities, SPX7,707.98 retraced from the ascending resistance line as expected, while NDX29,426.02 is still wrestling with the descending trendline. Bears need a decisive break below that line before the next leg lower can develop. Otherwise, NQ could again lead a broader equity-market bounce.
BTC1!70,905 also responded strongly to the long-bond rally, bouncing from the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
DX1!
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