March fifteenth, twenty twenty-six (260309-260315)
Author: Ariston. For details on how to add me as a WeChat friend, see the pinned post in the Planet.
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*My posts have been frequently deleted by the platform lately, so we will gradually replace some sensitive terms. Starting with this article, we will refer to B**T*C as “Little Yellow.”
Warning! Many ideas have been discussed once and will not be discussed a second time!!! You must review previous Weekly Wraps on your own!!! Absolutely do so!
In the new weekly newsletter, we have made the following main changes:
1) We have reordered the major assets according to stronger logical connections and more clearly explained how they move together and validate one another, giving readers a comprehensive picture for finding anchors across assets... The process of seeking certainty is essentially the process of finding an anchor for pricing...; 2) We have added more detailed analysis of the week’s developments, laying an expectations foundation for the long term. This serves portfolio positioning while also providing some reference for readers’ short- and medium-term actions... After all, every long-term decision is merely a rolling series of short-term decisions...; 3) We have reduced coverage of noisy asset classes. For positions that have already been exited, and assets whose fundamentals have not changed much (consistent with what we said the previous week),we will no longer provide ongoing updates in the weekly newsletter that take up too much space; instead, we will add coverage of assets that are urgently awaiting entry... After all, what matters for actual decision-making is what is happening now and what lies ahead. On this point, we need everyone’s cooperation: please review the historical content yourselves; we won’t take everyone through a history lesson every week... But review is necessary and must not be skipped. Before reading, please also read the Planet updates from that week or the relevant historical trading days. 4) The content will gradually incorporate our own understanding of the world of investing and trading, and systematically explain our ideas and principles. These are one firm’s views, offered to spark discussion, and are for reference only. Please bear with us if anything is lacking.
Starting 251109, the weekly newsletter is being completely revamped. For the historical framework and content, see “WEEKLY WRAP 251026” and earlier issues.
A video of Stan Druckenmiller appearing on MS recently became very popular, but far fewer people have paid attention to the conversation after another episode. It was released as a bonus three days ago, and he discussed this:
Image: In investing, the hardest thing is knowing when to stop analyzing
The host asked Stan: What do you think is the hardest skill to teach someone in investing?
A, Pattern recognition; B, risk and position management; C, patience; D, knowing when to stop analyzing
Stan’s answer is D. As for why, here’s how he explained it:
They're all pretty good, but I like number four the best. I think it's the biggest mistake in our business. At some point, the analysis becomes counterproductive.
They’re all pretty good, but I like the fourth one best.I think it’s one of the biggest mistakes in our business. A lot of the time, after you analyze something to a certain point, it actually starts to work against you.
And it's funny you asked me about things changing and adjusting. That's one thing I've learned, and it's greatly to my advantage. Speed matters now with AI and email and everything else. If you sit around
and analyze a company for four months and you're not willing to operate with 15% or 20% of the information, you'll often miss the big move. And then you're afraid to buy it because it has moved. That, to me, is a core belief. Sometimes when the opportunity is so big and you just kind of know it, you've just got to plunge in without the proper information. Do the work, and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't matter whether it's a profit or loss.
You just asked me about things changing and adjusting. That’s actually pretty interesting. It’s something I’ve learned over the years, and it’s given me a big advantage. In this day and age, with AI, email, and everything else, speed really matters.If you sit there for four months analyzing a company, but aren’t willing to act with only 15% or 20% of the information, you’ll often miss the big move. Then, after it’s already gone up, you’re afraid to buy because it has “already moved.”To me, that’s a core belief.Sometimes, when an opportunity is so big and deep down you already know it’s right, you have to jump in even when the information isn’t complete. Keep doing your homework; if it doesn’t work out in the end, it’s just a matter of whether you make a profit or a loss.
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If you’ve been on this planet for more than three months, you should have realized pretty clearly that the way we think and place our bets is actually different from what most people in the market do—or, rather, very different. We rarely give a long-winded, complete account of a story, because another meaning of “story” is “old news.” All old news, however compelling or dramatic the telling, has no bearing on how the market itself is priced.
Don’t actually believe the things you tell other people.
Back to the host’s four questions:
A: pattern recognition; B: risk and position management; C: patience; D: knowing when to stop analyzing.
In fact, the first two can be learned by anyone willing to put in the effort and thought and find a good mentor. The third can also be developed over time and by adjusting one’s personal approach. But the fourth—knowing when to stop analyzing—has to do with a person’s values and beliefs about how they understand the world, and it’s very difficult to truly achieve.You can’t think about nothing (people like that probably account for 8 tenths), but you can’t overthink either (the more elite people are, the more prone they are to this; they account for about 1.9 tenths). You have to think just the right amount (that’s what true market winners do)...
Unlike other fields, investing is about taking risk: how to protect yourself while making a bet, under uncertainty, on a potentially favorable payoff.Many people who excel in other fields lose money when they first start trading stocks, largely because they have a tendency toward perfectionism.In investing, if something has truly become clear, then it has basically already been priced in. What remains is either a reversal at a top or a bottom, or months and even tens of months of painful, directionless random fluctuations.
Only by betting on uncertainty can you buy before a move begins,
And only by buying before a move begins can you...
...
(Fill in the blank yourself. Newcomers who can’t fill it in should first read the Planet’s column articles. Don’t follow the latest developments until you can fill in the blank, or you won’t be able to keep up.)
...
I’ll post the full bilingual version of this Stan piece to the Planet along with today’s Wrap.
A new week—wishing everyone all the best.
Chart: All the narrative stuffJust “know” it; don’t take it too “seriously.”
I have a pretty bad cold, so today’s update will be brief. I’ll take a look at the additional points and may discuss them in a separate post later.
Everyone, take care of yourselves too.
I.The U.S. dollar index and the renminbi
Chart: U.S. Dollar Index (four-hour chart, as of 260315)
The U.S. dollar broke through as expected. We’ve talked a lot in recent weeks about why we’re bullish on the U.S. dollar, including the magazine effect of TE, the renminbi situation, the technical upside, our view that rate cuts will be delayed, and the view that “only crude oil and the U.S. dollar can both rise.” You can review the earlier material for yourselves.
Here, the price is approaching resistance. We expect a pullback that does not break below the red line, followed by continued formation of higher highs.
Chart: USDCNH (daily chart, as of 260315)
Those who haven’t seen the views on the USDCNH section in 《WEEKLY WRAP 260301》 should be sure to go back and read it. We remain bullish on renminbi appreciation, but for those expecting the steep rate of gains seen over nearly the past year to continue, the outlook here may be less favorable.In fact, the publication of the newsletter the week before last marked a turning-point low (the red circle indicated by the arrow in the chart above).
II.European defense spending
《WEEKLY WRAP 260104》 discussed the European defense representative LMT, which we are also long in tandem
(as of 25, LMT’s exposure to EU defense spending was 10%+ of revenue),
Chart: LMT (daily chart, as of 260315)
The first round of longs ran through 2.20/26, gaining +~30%.
As the world becomes more dangerous, demand for defense equipment is bound to keep rising.
The price has moved back above 670, triggering another long entry; we have re-entered, with the stop-loss set above 640.
Third, USD/GBP, EUR/USD, USD/CHF
this section be sure to read to the end《WEEKLY WRAP 260208》, which contains detailed information and the rationale behind the fundamental bets。
It is always three systems! Fundamental analysis, capital flows and relative value, and technical analysis must all align to form the basis for a decision. We don't repeat this in every weekly report simply to avoid repetition, but you can't just look at the technical charts—you need to go back and look at the reasons; charts are only the result!!!
Chart: USDGBP (daily chart, as of 260315)
USDGBP, the unrealized profit on the long position continues to grow, and the stop-loss level continues to move higher.
Note for new readers: This trade is a failed breakout (a failed downside breakout). This is one of our preferred entry setups because at the outset the stop-loss level is easy to set and very clear, making it beginner-friendly.
Chart: EURUSD (daily chart, as of 260315)
EUR/USD has continued to fall since breaking below the yearly moving average, and the expected path from here is shown in the chart.
The theme of this trade is changing rapidly; it began with de-dollarization (the long trade we made last year), followed by the narrative fading away (a range-bound market lasting several months, during which we stayed out), then the short trade at the end of last year (we went short based on seasonal patterns), and the rebound after it touched the yearly moving average, Now, its new name is: growth shock.
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I wasn't really planning to discuss anything new, because my head is spinning, but since this is quite important, I'll mention it here. This may not be the most suitable place for it, so please bear with me.
On the potential growth shock trade:
One thing we're watching is the possibility that the market's focus may shift from an inflation shock to a growth shock. Today, investors are still largely betting that the conflict in the Middle East is a temporary inflation and terms-of-trade shock. But the key issue is that if the situation escalates, higher energy prices and a more persistent rise in risk premia are inevitable. In that scenario, there could be a turning point that prompts the market to view it instead as a global growth shock.
As Joseph put it: “What is a recession? A recession is, at its core, negative growth.In other words, you produce fewer goods and services this year than last year. And one simple way for that to happen is to use fewer inputs. If your inputs decline, then your output must decline too.”
Oil, natural gas, fertilizer, helium, and other commodities prevented from passing through the Strait of Hormuz are sharply reducing the raw materials that can reach the rest of the world. If factories receive fewer inputs, then naturally they will ultimately produce fewer goods. So we are heading toward a global recession. Although it is difficult for this path and narrative to reach its end point (a genuine deep recession), the probability priced in will certainly rise progressively. And as of today, no one can say for certain how severe this will be; everything depends on how long it continues and whether the loss of productive capacity is permanent.
If it lasts long enough, this could turn into a very, very severe recession.
At that point, most stock indices will fall below the support levels of the past while and undergo a medium-term correction, while European currencies and the US dollar will also become a focus (review this part on your own: Europe’s growth shock will move toward the top of the global rankings), including, but not limited to, USDGBP and EURUSD, which we have already entered positions in.
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This is also why we do not think high oil prices will lead to rate hikes. At least for now, they would only delay rate cuts, not trigger a sudden rate hike. No one dares to act rashly.
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Chart: USDCHF (daily chart, as of 260315)
Likewise, unrealized gains on the long position continue to grow, and the take-profit level keeps moving higher. The daily chart has entered an uptrend.
Four.USD/JPY, Nikkei futures
Chart: USDJPY (daily chart, as of 260315)
A new high. We did not take this trade ourselves, but some members of our community are trading it after identifying it with the community’s three-level data panel. (Your trades can take many forms; simply copying us is not a good idea. The panel is intended to provide everyone with potential opportunities to target around the world.)This is provided only as a possible risk-management reference. The model turned bullish on 2 month 18, and as of now the take-profit level has moved up to 158.55. A break below this level could be used to take profits.
Chart: Nikkei futures (daily chart, as of 260315)
It fell back below the blue line. For the reason we did not chase the rally at the red circle, see the previous Wrap.If it breaks below here, support will not be found until above 50k.
Five.U.S. stock market
Chart: SPX (daily chart, as of 260308)
After our 100-bar judgment that the topping-style consolidation had ended, the market broke below 6717 in early March as expected, approaching the orange annual moving average below. If that moving average holds as support, there could be a rebound trade lasting 3-5 days, taking the market back to around 6717. If you believe in the growth-shock thesis, the rebound is a good opportunity to sell. A break below the annual moving average is when the bears start to act.
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Keep an eye on it yourself.
Chart: NDX/IWR (daily chart, as of 260315)
Six.European markets (UK100, GER40)
Chart: UK100 (daily chart, as of 260315)
The day after we closed our long positions to take profits, European equities began falling sharply. They have now broken below the key daily-chart bull-bear dividing line at 50 (the yellow line on the chart), the first break below it in the past year. We have opened a short position, with the stop currently placed above 10452.
Chart: GER40 (daily chart, as of 260315)
Likewise, GER and UK may look like two different bets, but they actually have the same risk exposure and price-reaction mechanism.
It found support at the lower edge of the purple rectangle. A break below here would trigger a much sharper decline; the short stop is at 23754.
Six. Silver and platinum
For the overall view, see “WEEKLY WRAP 260104” and the related long-form Notes published earlier.
Chart: CMX silver (daily chart, as of 260315)
The trend has in fact been in a state of silence since 2.11. If it shifts from silence to a downtrend here, we will consider opening a short position on a lower timeframe. Don’t forget that silver is in fact a risk asset.
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Chart: SLV (daily chart, as of 260315)
SLV, the long trading position is about to trigger its stop-loss exit. Please monitor it yourself.
Regarding the allocation position: last year, we built a core position against the trend at the three orange circles. After that, 25.11.25 turned from red to blue, and we added to the position to follow the trend. A few weeks ago and on the 17th, the 2x target price was hit twice (see the previous two weekly issues), and we added to the position on both occasions (the two orange circles on the right-hand 66.42 horizontal line). ...If the price returns to around the 2x target, we will add another portion to the position.For more details, seeView notethis post:
Chart: A post about rebuilding the allocation position near the 20 or 50 dma (depending on the micro-level state of the respective asset)
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Platinum:
Chart: NMX platinum (daily chart, as of 260315)
The trading logic is the same as for CMX silver; the two can be regarded as moving in sync.
As a proxy indicator for leveraged funds, it has continued to be sold since 3.9.
Seven. Gold
Chart: CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260315)
Gold’s state of silence has lasted 27 trading days; the model has remained out of the market since exiting on 26 year 1 month 30 day. ...
This is an extremely rare occurrence; in fact, this is the longest period of silence since 18 year 1 month 1 day. ...
A sudden expansion in volatility is quite likely here, so keep a close eye on it.The direction of the initial breakout will become the main direction of volatility expansion for some time to come!
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From a capital-flow perspective, leveraged funds are still selling.
Chart: GDX (daily chart, as of 260308)
The trading position in GDX was closed around breakeven. We remain very bullish on miners, but for this position too, we will wait until the price returns to around 101.We have our own views, but we also (and even more so) respect the market and the pricing outcome reflected in prices.
One point of reference is significant: until GDX turns bullish, global mining stocks do not meet the conditions for swing-trade longs. When individual stocks encounter resistance on the way up, that is a distribution point, not a breakout entry to add to positions.
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Eight: Copper and Aluminum
For an answer on when the industrial metals bet will end, see “WEEKLY WRAP 251221”
Chart: Copper-gold ratio overlaid with copper price (monthly chart, as of 260315)
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Chart: Shanghai copper (daily chart, as of 260315)
Continuous selling since 1.20; to date, there has been no signal to go long again.
Chart: FCX (daily chart, as of 260308)
Likewise, to date, there has been no signal to go long again.
Always use stop-loss protection, it really will protect you.
Chart: Global inflation proxy for industrial metals (weekly chart, as of 260308)
A new high; the industrial metals bet is not over.But be careful: the focus is shifting from inflation shock to growth shock!
Note: More details on this were discussed earlier in the Planet strategy notes; just refer back to them for specifics on how to use it.
Nine: Little Yellow and Its Friends
Chart: Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260315) (the model only shows the SHORT ONLY portion)
Broke through our 1x target (74.5k) and 2x target (65k) in successionNear 60k, the position management system issued a signal to reduce the short position(point B, circled in orange on the chart)(B in a short position and S in a long position are reduction signals!) We have taken profits and reduced the position here; the remaining short position is still being held pending automatic exit.
Since taking profits, Little Yellow has found precise support between our 1x and 2x targets and has traded in a narrow range up to now,
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Ten: China Market
As for the trend, I won’t post much more about it here. We’ve decided to update the three-level asset status data daily, so everyone can just download the latest corresponding data tables from the Planet each day. Here are a few things you don’t usually get to see.。Individual stock data for the mainland market is also now updated daily on Honglong. If you’re interested, you can subscribe via this link (https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs）
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The weekly newsletter 《WEEKLY WRAP 260222》 answers many key questions! If you haven’t read it, be sure to do so before coming back.
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The most important thing this week is Hang Seng Tech:
Chart: Hang Seng Tech (daily chart, as of 260308)
For details of the long position, see 《WEEKLY WRAP 260308》.
The worst-case outcome for this trade right now is to exit at breakeven.
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Eleven. Korean market
Chart: Korea Index/India Index (daily chart, as of 260315)
After the red circle, a new high; a precise reversal at the yellow line, followed by a new high after support.
Review it yourselves.
Chart: The highest point at the top signals a decline
Chart: Signals a rebound from daily support on 50
Twelve. Oil (the oil and gas allocation position and the 200 DMA for oil prices) and oil and gas/shipping stocks
The trading position has reopened a long position in crude oil. I posted the reasons on the Planet, but the posts keep getting deleted,
Chart: Going long again after taking profits on the first round (View note）
A supplementary note here:
Chart: Answer explaining why a new long position was opened after closing out to take profits
Chart: WTI (four-hour chart, as of 260308)
Currently The Profit Taking level has now moved up above 92; the next step will be to move it to 94.
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For more content and discussion of the successful first round of going long on oil and gas (allocation/trading positions), see the Planet posts and Wrap columns from the entire first quarter. By the end of this round, both of our little traders had saved enough to get married and buy a home, but what’s really worth celebrating most is that we can genuinely make money in the market through our own abilities, and survive the recognition.
Always remember two things: 1) firmly execute the stop, whether it is a stop-loss or take-profit; 2) so-called trends are the natural result of the market unfolding, and all we are trying to do is happen to be, or deliberately position ourselves(the reason doesn't matter)in the trend, and take profits when the selling price is higher than the buying price.
No price movement can be predicted; our entire oil and gas position was still an “old economy asset” when we bought it, and there was nothing about it in the news flow. Yet it reached where it is today in a way nobody could have expected(of course, some people will certainly say they “called it long ago”)as a result.
Do the work, and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't matter whether it's a profit or loss.
I won't keep talking about success. Stay humble in the face of the market, keep that in mind, and do your own reviews. This trade earned me an opportunity, and I will record it in our annual review this year.
If you didn't make it, there's no need to rush; there will be plenty of opportunities. The worst thing is to trade frequently when you shouldn't.
Never have a fear of missing out.Those who rushed in recklessly have all disappeared!!!!!!
Thirteen, EEM (1x target price)
Chart: EEM (weekly chart, as of 2603015)
As of now, there is no further long signal.
Fourteen, uranium
Chart: URA (daily chart, as of 260315) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY portion)
The uranium trade remains valid for the foreseeable future. For now, going long again requires URA to move back above 52.8.
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Fifteen, Brazil
Entering the late-stage parabolic phase on the right side of the chart, we have converted it from a pure allocation position into a swing-trading position:
Chart: EWZ (daily chart, as of 260315) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY portion)
Corresponding ETF allocation (EWZ),The position has been closed. To go long again, the price needs to move back above 37.6.
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(End of full text)
A quick plug: the companion U.S. stocks, A-shares/Hong Kong stocks, and commodities Planet communities are continuously being improved.
U.S. stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies(Xingzhi)
A-shares/Hong Kong stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies(Kanglong)
Commodities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies(Dixin)
Note: Everything in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice, nor should it be taken as the basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for making decisions.