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20 September 2026
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Zero. Skill and patience are both essential
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Skill and patience are both essential
I give only three sets of books to my students, partners, and friends: one set is Victor Sperandeo's Methods of a Wall Street Master & Principles of Professional Speculation; one set is Robert Edwards & John Magee's Technical Analysis of Stock Trends; and one set is the Market Wizard series.
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The first set is a reference for considering just how thorough a system of your own you need as an individual in the market to achieve profits and above-market returns.
The second set covers the fundamentals: the unchanging aspects underlying price and human behavior.
The third set is about more individuals. You will see the sobering fact that there is no Holy Grail in the market; you will also see that there are as many methods as there are people. Whatever the case, as long as you are passionate about what you do and willing to change yourself and keep investing in it, you will find the right path that belongs to you.
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Among the countless paths, two things are common to all and indispensable:1) ability, 2) patience.
The former can be developed through training, learned from mentors, and quickly replicated; it is also what I hope to pass on to friends through this newsletter subscription, just as my teacher passed it on to me. The latter is different: patience in dancing with the market can only be gained through real gains and losses.
Based on my training and observations of traders, the acquisition of patience generally follows a fairly universal path, which I call the 2k rule:
The 3k rule means that, with a standard position size, once the cumulative absolute value of the profits and losses from individual trades reaches 2000% (100 individual trades with 20% gains and losses, or 200 individual trades with 10% gains and losses...and so on), you will begin to develop fairly mature patience and risk tolerance. Even those with exceptional talent need at least 1500% of profit-and-loss experience. The specific figure is also related to the absolute size of the total position; here, I mean the range of funds available to most individuals or entry-level professionals.
This is not an encouragement to trade frequently. Even value investors, before taking the path toward truly mature value investing, must first undergo at least this kind of tempering to develop a mental framework that understands trends and can sit well with their unfolding.
This mindset runs counter to intuition and goes against traditional education and the social environment. It is also why the vast majority of people cannot make money in the market.
I. Macro Trading Positioning
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After the Federal Reserve raised rates this week, the long end of the market stabilized. The more significant change was a flattening yield curve, with the spread falling below its level a few months ago. This indicates that the market believes the Fed will now continue tightening policy to control inflation, rather than this being a one-off event(the market has already priced in three more rate hikes between now and the middle of next year).
US30Y-US02Y(Daily chart, as of 260920)
At the same time, the event itself failed to become a key directional catalyst. As noted earlier, the Fed’s actions are becoming less consequential in the broader picture: given that rate hikes have no direct impact on inflation or economic growth within the foreseeable horizon, the market continues to move sideways, holding within the June-to-September range.
This state of affairs may persist until the midterm elections. The market’s direction will become clearer only once something breaks out of the trading range. Until then, our main task is to stay in the market effectively while keeping the cost of wear and tear low so that we can board the train of an expanding move as soon as the trend begins.
SPX(Daily chart, as of 260920)
SPX detected unusual activity on Friday, but price remains within a volatility-contraction pattern near the top. Whether the breakout is to the upside or downside, this is a trendless zone where positions are worn down until a breakout occurs.
Given that we have entered a critical phase for capital expenditure, debt repayment, and the K-shaped economy, and with left-tail black-swan risks being forcibly suppressed, an upside breakout remains the base case。
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims (weekly chart, as of 260920)
Recessions are often not confirmed until they are nearly over, while the market has been highly alert to recession risks since the beginning of this decade. This means that any materially significant change at the margin will be reflected very sensitively in prices.
RSP/SPYA rising ratio means the equal-weight S&P 500 is outperforming the S&P 500 (daily chart, as of 260920)
Equal-weight continued to decline after modestly outperforming earlier, maintaining its downtrend of lower highs and lower lows that has persisted for several years, This means that if SPX chooses a downward path and the correction deepens, expecting rotation from technology into value, healthcare, and consumer staples remains unrealistic—at least for now.Broad rotation is not the cure (at least for now).
IWM(Daily chart, as of 260920)
As noted in the previous weekly, small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to recession fears, so IWM is a key proxy for observing how the market assesses recession risk. The gold line is the optimism line, and the white line is the economic growth line; if price breaks below the white-line support, the next support will be in the purple box area. A further break below the purple box would confirm the recession narrative.
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Macro Drivers (as of 260920)
Several important variables mentioned last week made sharp moves this week, as expected:
US Front-End Policy (as of 260920)
China Ferrous/Construction (as of 260920)
Agriculture Inflation (as of 260920)
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Shifts in macro-theme thesis trades (as of 260920)
Several trade theses in the Crowned area have moved from green to gray and then further, in unison, to red, This is evidence of a reversal in the macro thesis.。
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260920)
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Chart: Real Financial Conditions (market pricing) overlaid with Precious Metals, Technology, and Alternative Assets composites
Financial Conditions & Precious Composite & Tech Composite & Crypto Composite (as of 260920)
The real financial conditions monitor has moved into the previously established support zone, while the downward slope has also eased, The risk of further declines remains (see the red box at the upper left of the chart), but the remaining downside has narrowed. Bearish pressure is easing, and liquidity-driven selling across a range of assets is also beginning to bottom and rebound. Technology, precious metals, and crypto could see a rebound take shape here if real financial conditions stabilize.
Two. Technology Trade Positioning
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KOSPI (weekly chart, as of 260920)
KOSPI (daily chart, as of 260920)
The Korean index remains trapped in a consolidation pattern and needs to break above the white horizontal line to move higher. There is still no positive change on the weekly timeframe; the daily timeframe shows a mildly optimistic shift, but tightening is still being priced in.
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SOXX(weekly chart, as of 260920)
The bottom-fractal auction continues on the weekly timeframe, Momentum shows signs that this is a rebound rather than a reversal; an upward move is still possible only on the daily timeframe.
SOXX (daily chart, as of 260920)
On Friday, price broke above the descending white line and closed near the upper edge of the Ariston Channel up-channel. A bullish signal is triggered below the white horizontal line; the development of the uptrend requires price to break further above the horizontal line。
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5D%
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STAR Market 50 (weekly chart, as of 260920)
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260920)
STAR Market 50 turned bullish during the week as planned (View note), then broke above the upper edge of the Ariston Channel on Friday, turning the descending channel into an ascending channel. At the same time, the beauty contest indicator improved, and momentum details broke above the previous energy resistance line, forming a favorable rebound pattern.
Weekly downside energy has narrowed but remains in a downtrend, highly similar to SOXX, suggesting that the possible move ahead remains limited to a daily-timeframe rebound rather than a weekly-timeframe reversal.
STAR Market Semiconductor ETF (daily chart, as of 260920)
STAR Market Semiconductor ETF, which also turned bullish in tandem, 1) shifted to an ascending channel, 2) the beauty contest indicator improved, 3) and momentum details broke above the previous resistance line. Move the stop up to breakeven to make this a risk-free trade; the worst-case outcome is exiting at breakeven.
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Tech Monitor Mainland Basket as an asset (daily chart, as of 260920)
The vast majority of the Mainland Basket has shifted to long positions, For more content and daily updates, see Hong Kong Dragon Planet (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies). This phase is the best time to use the comprehensive individual-stock table to make well-grounded decisions on entries and exits from the bottom up.
5D% (as of 260920)
Tech Monitor (as of 260920)
The wear-and-tear period while waiting for the trend to unfold.
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More details on Tech Monitor are available in the newly launched WEEKLY CHARTBOOK weekly serial updates, which cover a more specific bottom-up core proxy structure. We hope you enjoy them.
III. Global Equity Positioning
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260920)
There is no green in the Crowned area, and global equities are under pressure. Focus on objects in the Rising and Forgotten areas that turn green or have a gold border.
Global Equities: Anomalous Moves in the Economic Logic (as of 260920)
Growth stocks outperforming value stocks is traditionally counterintuitive in this context, but we have long been living in a moment of de-traditionalization, where the things in textbooks no longer apply. The rate-hiking cycle will further widen the divergence between the technology sector and traditional industries.
Global Equities: Anomalous Moves in the Structural Logic (as of 260920)
Four. U.S. Market Positioning
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Much of this has been covered in the section on macro trading positioning. Those who jumped straight here can turn back to Part One for the relevant details.
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MEME(Daily chart, as of 260920)
After the profit-taking stop on MEME was triggered, a new long position was triggered on Friday. Momentum details are currently hovering around the midline. This is likewise a consolidating pattern with contracting volatility, just like the broader U.S. index market. It has never formally broken free of the choppy pattern and moved higher, The upward path requires the choppy pattern to end.
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260920)
One additional area to watch is shipping ETF. It is at the far right of the chart's horizontal axis on the scatter plot, but has been gradually falling on the vertical axis:
BOAT(Daily chart, as of 260920)
During the week It reached the symmetrical upside target for the breakout, while the system issued a top-prediction signal. As prices continued to rise, market breadth declined instead; momentum details also failed to make a new high and fell in tandem. These are potential signs of a top; take note and watch how the trend develops.
Strong momentum above the green line; above the yellow line is a place to take a shot; below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market will tend toward random fluctuations (as of 260920)
The red line provided precise support again, somewhat like the TACO index. In short, everything points to someone—or a consensus view among market participants—not wanting the market structure to deteriorate, which is also evidence of the left-tail risk being forcibly cut off, as described in Part One.
Five. FX Trading Positioning
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USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 260920)
It reversed as expected, and we closed the short position held since 07.02 according to plan, then switched to long;Price will work out a perfect trend on its own. You don't need to be especially clever; you just need to learn to listen to the market.
Congratulations to everyone as well
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USDBRL(Daily chart, as of 260920)
The choppy pattern continues; no adjustment.
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EWZ(Daily chart, as of 260920)
The trend paused as expected, and momentum details began to weaken. We took profits and exited, then switched to short, as planned.
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USDSEK, it broke out as expected, and unrealized gains widened.
USDSEK(Daily chart, as of 260920)
USDSEK (weekly chart, as of 260920)
USDMXN, the momentum detail has once again risen above the red threshold; watch for a potential squeeze breakout pattern here:
USDMXN(Daily chart, as of 260920)
USDMXN (weekly chart, as of 260920)
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260920)
Six. Mainland China Trade Positioning
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Narrative trades (daily chart, as of 260920)
Pair trades (daily chart, as of 260920)
5D% (as of 260920)
Interested readers can find it on Hong Kong Dragon (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies), where you can find more details on the complete 100+ mainland basket trade structure The CN Basket Chartbook began its ongoing updates two weeks ago:
Yellow wine has reached the T3 target price since the basket entry at +55% (daily chart, as of 260920)
PCB equipment (daily chart, as of 260920)
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Note:Trade monitoring for hundreds of mainland baskets from a top-down perspective will be updated in full starting this week on Hong Kong Dragon inthe “ARI’S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK”》column. Index structure updates are retained here.
Shanghai Composite (weekly and daily charts, as of 260920)
The first weekly bar showing an improvement in the beauty-contest signal has appeared.
Shenzhen Component (weekly and daily charts, as of 260920)
Watch for a possible breakout by the Shenzhen Component above the upper boundary of the channel on the daily timeframe; a breakout would mark the official start of this rally.A potential daily-chart breakout above the upper boundary of the channel would mark the official start of this rebound once it occurs.
CSI500 & CSI2000 (daily chart, as of 260920)
Likewise, there is divergence.
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260920)
A number of tech names have returned to the Crowned area.
Seven. Precious Metals Trading Positioning
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CMX gold (weekly chart, as of 260920)
CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260920)
The weekly chart is not pretty, which means the bullish move can only happen on the daily timeframe; an anomaly was detected in the daily structure on Wednesday, and that day's trading set the lowest price of this base. The following day engulfed it, and Friday's follow-through day confirmed the bull trigger. I am currently holding a long position, with the stop-loss below the low of the engulfing day.
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 260918): update on the planetary configuration before turning bullish, I only post at important moments
CMX gold (hourly chart, as of 260920)
In addition, the stop-loss level is also supported from the MTF perspective, This is the lower boundary of the channel on the four-hour timeframe; a break below it would lead to a further decline, straight to 4k.
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CMX silver (daily chart, as of 260920)
At the precise support marked by the white line in the previous weekly report, unusual activity was also observed on the support bar. In addition: 1) the beauty contest turned positive again, 2) momentum details are pointing up, 3)The week ended with a perfect close on the white line
Likewise, place the stop-loss below the low of the engulfing bar...
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Next week, I’ll revisit the episode on engulfing candlesticks from the earlier introductory technical analysis manual. Those who have joined recently can check out the revised version then.
NMX platinum (daily chart, as of 260920)
NMX palladium (daily chart, as of 260920)
The white precious metals have basically the same structure; palladium is currently lagging slightly.
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Meanwhile, I’d like you to focus on this horizontal line on the silver/gold ratio chart. 1/ This is a sentiment line. 2/ Many people instinctively think that gold mining stocks should be traded based on the gold/silver ratio. But that view is wrong—the actual relationship is exactly the opposite. Periods when silver outperforms gold are the main phases when gold mining stocks rise. I view the silver/gold ratio as a sentiment indicator for the entire precious metals sector.
Or, you could also say, The silver/gold ratio reflects how strong gold’s speculative characteristics are beyond its traditional monetary role. Speculation, rather than fundamentals, is the underlying driver of volatility.
SI/GCOverlayGDX(daily chart, as of 260918)View note
Prices are driven by speculation, not fundamentals. Ultimately, prices are determined by buyers and sellers in the market, rather than being inherently determined by the intrinsic properties of the asset itself.
SI/GC (daily chart, as of 260918)hView note
SI/GC (daily chart, as of 260920)
Still below the yellow line.
Eight. Alternative Assets: Trading Positioning
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Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260920)
The blue line on the chart marks The first long position we took previously at the T2 target price level (please refer back to the previous weekly report for the details); we reduced our position here and subsequently closed out the entire position.
The stop was placed at the low of the engulfing bar. What is interesting here—and can only be spotted if you carefully examine cross-asset behavior—is that readers who have followed the weekly newsletter all along have probably also noticed that
The stop-loss was placed at the low of the engulfing bar. Here’s something interesting that you’d only notice by carefully watching cross-asset behavior. Those who have been following the weekly reports should have noticed that crypto, precious metals, and even technology stocks all had almost 1:1 identical price structures this week, driven by the same factors.。Setups triggered by the same structure will continue to move in the same direction, at least until the setup is declared invalid.
E (daily chart, as of 260920)
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Nine. Soft Commodities
Nine. Soft commodities
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Agricultural products Basket (daily chart, as of 260920)
Such as an oversold bounce, but still in bearish territory
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Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260920)
Cocoa: the floating profit on the short position has expanded sharply. Long, short, long, short—we are now into the second round of swing trading, with all four trades precisely positioned before the price took off. The entire process has been archived on Planet.Are we especially good at this? Actually, no—we simply follow instructions. The price tells you when it is about to rise, and it tells you just as clearly when it is about to fall.
Here, abnormal-move monitoring also lets us see the situation in greater detail. The new-high bar showed abnormal behavior, after which momentum details rapidly deteriorated all the way through, while the Beauty indicator also worsened rapidly. This is a sign of distribution at the top.
The stop has been moved into profit. This trade is now safe; all we need to do is sit tight and wait for what comes next.
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260920)
Likewise, we went long before the rise, sold at the target price near the top, and turned short when the top structure broke. The entire process has been archived on Planet. Those who have recently joined Planet should now have a deeper understanding of how prices develop in this round of agricultural-commodity trades, The market unfolding right here and now, at every moment, can teach you ten or a hundred times more than any books or courses on the market The reason you do not see this kind of thing is simply that very few people are capable of making well-grounded decisions about when to enter and exit in the here and now.
Most experts are experts in hindsight, but you can only make decisions in the here and now. Practice and learning must happen in the here and now, too.
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The floating profit continues to grow; the stop has been moved from breakeven to a profit-taking level.
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Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260920)
We are still holding short. The structure has not changed, so the stop-loss level should not be moved. There were attempts by the bulls to counterattack during the week, but all ended in failure. One point is fairly clear:At the highest point, we detected a huge amount of abnormal activity (see the summary table). Momentum details showed a sustained decline, accompanied by continued weakness in the Beauty indicator. This behavior was most likely distribution at the top.Firm distribution is difficult to refute unless new outside capital comes in.
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Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260920)
Does this look familiar?If you have read the entire weekly newsletter up to this point, you should have a deeper understanding of cross-asset behavior and how the assets confirm one another. Yes, it is familiar: raw sugar, soybeans, and cocoa have almost exactly the same behavioral logic. You could call this consensus positioning in agricultural commodities, but traditionally this kind of consensus has not been so consistent. What is more, while prices were in top structures, headlines about an agricultural crisis kept appearing in leading global media, and some “retired traders from the previous generation” were brought out to lend their support. Yet the underlying momentum details kept declining. It is hard not to wonder whether certain groups are behind it...I am not saying this is a coordinated, premeditated operation to push prices up and distribute at the top. I am only saying that one thing should be kept in mind: what you hear and see is what others want you to hear and see.
Do not let yourself be deceived by the things you say to others.
Corn (daily chart, as of 260920)
Corn: still holding short.
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260920)
Wheat: continue to hold short. The stop has been moved from the stop-loss level to a profit-taking level, and the trade is now safe.
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... Let’s leave it at that for now; I don’t want to say much more.
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LE (daily chart, as of 260909)
LE (daily chart, as of 260920)
Take profit and exit on the first long position from the bottom. To turn bullish again, price currently needs to break above the high of the confirmation bar for the previous delayed top fractal. It is still in an uptrend channel and may find support at the yellow line.
Ten. Oil
Planet posted this content earlier, but the screenshot here from X is clearer, so I’m used to taking screenshots here. Crude oil broke below the lower bound of the channel I previously indicated during the week and triggered a top signal on my chart. It has now broken below it; the situation is shown below:
BRN(Daily chart, as of 260920)
BRN (hourly chart, as of 260920)
My assessment is unchanged. For details, seeView notethis post. For everyone’s convenience, I’ll paste a copy below:
Still inside the channel, but a topping contraction pattern has already appeared, and momentum is weakening at the same time. The contraction means that price driving force is disappearing at this level, while systematic dip-buying capital continues to execute mechanically.
A tail event would constitute a breakout of the upper bound; a breakdown of the channel would trigger passive stop-losses among these mechanical funds and produce a longs-killing-longs decline.
If a decline materializes, we may find support in the 92–95 zone, corresponding to a 10%–15% drop (depending on the time and speed of the decline). If so, I expect some news to surface in a timely manner at that level.
You are all very kind to think of me, but I’m not important, and I have no intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep my head down and work quietly. The content on Planet is for our own internal use, and we try not to share it externally. Thank you all. I’m grateful to all my friends.
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Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
