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11 October 2026
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Zero: Simplicity & Effort
1
It is possible to explain market structure in a “simple” way.
Does the ultimate simplicity of the great way exist? It does. But behind that simplicity lies a great deal of unseen effort. What I mean is, you should know and believe that understanding market structure is indeed something that can be done, not an unattainable outcome.
For those looking for inspiration or willing to put in the work, you can look for primary sources from the year 12 or from before the year 05.; there are many such materials on the internet, and you can find them if you look carefully. With AI to help with the search, it is also much easier than when I did this work back then.
At the same time, for those whose trading process involves subjective factors, if you want to improve your intuition for price movements, the best method to this day is still to draw candlestick charts by hand. This is very different from using computers to study prices. The mathematical abstraction of computers misses most of the marginal information in price movements, while In an extremely competitive arena, marginal/non-mapped information is what holds the key to gaining an edge.If you only move back and forth within the middle of the full distribution, in the part that is close to public (and therefore also close to being fully priced in or to the theory of perfect markets), it is hard to reach the areas where you can earn excess returns.
You won’t find my material anywhere else, because I dug it out myself, candlestick by candlestick. I also read public material—texts and books—but I use it only to 1/ reduce the cost of acquiring information, 2/ understand what others (the other side of the trade) are looking at and thinking, so I can anticipate “what would trigger what if something happened,” and to exploit reflexivity to some extent.Using public material to participate in market games is no different from playing face up at the card table.
...
2
If people are interested, I’ll share more recommended reading later. The book list will have to wait, since I’m still moving and it requires quite a bit of organizing.
I. Macro Trading Positioning
1
Still, US10Y is building a weekly Failed Breakout against the weekly chart for 07. Whether this forms a top pattern is crucial to whether yields can find a new anchor.
US10Y(Weekly chart, as of 261011)
Meanwhile, signs of weakness are appearing on the daily timeframe. Yields are hovering between the bullish PT and the T2 price. Any further expansion of cross-asset effects requires one of these two levels to be reached, leading the market into a new range (yields making another run at the highs, or a trade on yields topping out):
“Despite some marginal weakening, US10Y remains in a bullish structure within its rising channel. ...
...A sustained advance in precious metals will likely require US10Y to break below PT (or above T2), triggering the next scenario shift...”
US10Y (Daily chart, as of 261011)
TLT(Daily chart, as of 261011)
TLT; a break above the bearish PT would mark the end of the decline, At least wait for a move into the uptrend channel before betting on a reversal There’s no need to rush in to be first. You won’t capture any extra return, only extra risk. No need to hurry.
2
On bond-market trading, I attended a conference call last week that included an interesting point, which I’ll share here for your consideration. The gist was as follows:
1/ Markets are generally good at pricing in the future ahead of time, but the current moves in the bond market may not be driven by this kind of pricing. They may instead have more to do with speculators’ thinking: the Treasury isn’t intervening, and the Fed isn’t doing anything, so it seems possible to short U.S. Treasuries freely. 2/ This may be happening because speculators know that, under inflationary pressure, central banks are unwilling to restart QE (effectively leaving them with one fewer policy tool). So current bond-market dynamics may be driven more by this speculative mechanism than by bond selling based on fundamental judgments.
This view offers a potentially different perspective. In fact, setting speculative positioning aside, yields do seem to have risen to levels that are attractive to major investors, as can be seen in this week’s Treasury auctions:
The auction’s awarded yield was below the when-issued implied level, and the bid-to-cover ratio was strong (a measure of bidding demand relative to supply; a ratio above average, with a rising bid multiple indicating that higher yields are attracting buyers). The primary dealers’ take-up share was also very low. (Primary dealers are legally obliged to participate in bidding, so auctions “never fail”; talking about auction failure is pessimistic rhetoric. If private-sector demand is insufficient, primary dealers take a larger share, initially holding the bonds on their own books and then gradually selling them.) This signals to the market that demand for ten-year Treasuries is strong at current interest-rate levels, temporarily creating a soft ceiling for yields.
Recommended listening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSL8MHDcgd0
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Macro Drivers (as of 261011)
Macro theme positioning: trading anomalies (as of 261011)
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261011)
...
Chart: Real financial conditions (market pricing) overlaid with the Precious Metals, Tech, and Alternative Assets composites
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 261011)
It found support at the previous low as expected, putting a temporary halt to the declines in crypto and precious metals.
II. Tech Trade Positioning
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KOSPI(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Is it complicated? Not complicated.The Korean index: nearly two months have passed since we drew the white horizontal line, and it remains precisely pinned below it (I never draw my lines arbitrarily; they are all drawn with care. Some people’s lines are worth little, while others’ are worth a lot). During this period, those who made random moves based on various indicators, news, and intraday fluctuations have mostly just deepened their account drawdowns, with little chance of a good outcome.Learn to act at critical moments.
The hard part is not making random moves. You listen to this person and that person, look all around, and keep changing your position; all you get for it is losses.
There is no need to look until the horizontal line is broken. Below the gold line is the bearish zone.
...
SOXX(Daily chart, as of 261011)
US-session semiconductors: The first long trade since SOXX entered the uptrend channel has ended. After the stop was triggered on Thursday, the position turned short; to turn long again, price needs to break above the previous gap. Friday saw the first bearish-volume bar (colored according to actual trading volume).
Discussion of AI has actually been quite exhaustive for a long time. In our weekly newsletter, we have also discussed the various possible scenarios and concerns over and over. When there is nothing left to say, that is itself a problem.
A sign that something is fully priced in is a narrowing trading range. After the range narrows, a breakout point usually indicates the direction, and then money starts piling in, bringing about the next expansion in the trading range.
At this stage, the most important thing is to do our best to stay in the market at a low cost (ideally at zero cost or with a small gain) and remain nimble, positioned on the side of the latest bullish or bearish setup. That way, when the trend begins, we can build the largest cushion of safety (the first bar of range expansion is unpredictable and often contributes the most in the early phase; it has a major bearing on whether you can psychologically hold on through the subsequent move), and sit comfortably in first class on the next flight.
Note: We have discussed the coloring. To align with Chartbook, from now on we will color them red and green: red for bearish-volume bars and green for bullish-volume bars.
DRAM(Daily chart, as of 261011)
DRAM: The parameters for the initial channel setup were insufficient, but this week the analysis was finally completed and confirmed that it is in a downtrend channel. For bulls, the risk-reward looks poor—not very attractive.
2
Tech proxy 5 D%
...
For more details, see “ARI’s WEEKLY CHARTBOOK(TECH)”
3
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 261011)
Long is long, and short is short.
No rush.
STAR Market Semiconductors ETF (daily chart, as of 261011)
STAR Market Semiconductors ETF triggered a stop-loss last week, and losses widened this week. It is important to understand why stop-losses are necessary. Losing trades and failed trades are normal; I may be wrong more often than any of you, but the good thing is that these failed trades never cause too much pain. Our task is to deal with failure and losses; successful trades take care of themselves (by continuing to run or closing automatically when they end).
Rather than making a lot of money all at once in certain places, controlling drawdowns should be the most important goal for market participants. Strategies that can make a lot of money all at once can also lose a lot of money all at once; gains and losses always come from the same source. Focusing on the former makes it difficult to be both long and good (good, and good for the long haul). Focusing on the latter makes it possible, because the latter (controlling drawdowns) is oriented toward compounding. The key to compounding is cutting losses—protecting principal as much as possible to limit downside, while letting profits run. For more on this, see Paul Tudor Jones’s interview; it’s in the book recommended two weeks ago, or you should be able to find some of his earlier material on YouTube. It is very worthwhile.
If you have a clear plan for when to enter and exit, the market cannot hurt you (see the CN Baskets below, if you have been reading carefully every week“ARI’s WEEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN）》，then this round of declines will not have hurt you at all—bearish structures appeared in the vast majority of them in 9.24)
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Tech Monitor Mainland Baskets as an asset (daily chart, as of 261011)
Still, most remain short, and losses have continued to widen since they turned short.
Race panel: China Tech Basket (as of 261011) Beauty Contest strength turned down without reaching its previous high
Optical Chip Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)Down ~25% since turning bearish; if you have a clear plan for when to enter and exit, you could have sold precisely before the decline
Analog Chip Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
PCB Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
Electronic Fabric Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
Optical Fiber Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
MLCC Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
PTFE Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)The bearish structure was already clear before the decline
...
For more on Mainland trading baskets, see“ARI’s WEEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN）》the structural positioning of the hundreds of baskets covered in the weekly update.
III. Global Equity Positioning
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261011)
Global Equity Logical Trading Anomalies (Economic) (as of 261011)
Global Equity Logical Trading Anomalies (Structure) (as of 261011)
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Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》
T1 reversed precisely at the target level, and we took profits and exited as planned. ARGT saw a sharp short-covering rally after triggering our exit price (the gold line). This is what happens after a long-short reversal. Market moves are predictable:
ARGT(Daily chart, as of 261011)
...
3
NKD1!(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Nikkei: A bearish reversal attempt, with the stop placed at the high of the bar confirming a delayed top fractal. The market remains in an uptrend channel, so this could end in a loss.
Be sure to keep a close eye on the white uptrend line. If it breaks here, it will attract a great deal of attention from capital.
...
4
EWZ(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Brazil: After turning bearish from a bullish position, the market saw a sharp rise with an expansion in volatility. This is an election-driven market. Many people will see it and think this is just a matter of technical analysis, dismiss it, and start confidently discussing things that are meaningless from a pricing perspective.
Is it charting? To some extent, yes. But they don’t see the long-term research and effort behind it—If you look back, and then further back... you’ll find that last year I was already discussing Brazil’s election this 10 month. This is a long-range operation from a fundamental perspective. No one can predict what will happen, but you can do your homework in advance and know 1) where volatility may emerge, and when it may happen; 2) what possible response paths there may be if volatility occurs, and what to expect from each path.
Of course, those people won’t pay attention to any of this either. They only see what’s right in front of them and what they want to see...
You can’t do that.
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HSTECH (daily chart, as of 261007)
HSTECH (daily chart, as of 261011)
Hang Seng TECH: A bullish reversal requires a break above the blue line.
IV. US Equity Market Positioning
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SPX(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Holding longs in a downtrend channel means (this is from last week, copied over): the index offers an unfavorable risk-reward profile, and holding longs means there are bottom-up, divergent bullish directions within the market structure that can be wagered on. A downtrend channel means a broad-based rally cannot be expected, so if possible, break things down and trade them individually.
...
The T1 target price is below 8k and is likely to be reached. However, this week’s “new high” came with a divergence in momentum. One thing is clear: this is not a healthy top.
The unhealthy top is reflected not only in SPX’s internal structure, but also in the fact that as it made a new high, IWM broke below the uptrend line drawn earlier this week; we opened a short at the breakdown point;As noted in the previous weekly newsletter, small-cap performance is the key proxy for assessing recession risk. The breakdown means micro-level cracks are beginning to appear in the economic growth narrative. If the market further breaks below the previously forecast bottom of the Ariston Bottom below, that would confirm the recession narrative.
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》
2
MEME(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Take profit, close the position and reverse as planned. The lower channel boundary is above 8.2; a break below it here would sharply increase downside risk.
MAGS(Daily chart, as of 261011)
#MAGS User clicked play; T1 triggered, and a top/bottom forecast signal (Ariston Top/Ariston Bottom) appeared at the same time. However, the forecast has not worked well for this instrument, so treat it only as a simple reference.
KWEB (daily chart, as of 261011)
Near the upper channel boundary; watch to see whether it can break through.
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261011)
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Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
XLU(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Our entry on the 9 month 29 day and the Ariston Bottom forecast signal issued on the 10 month 1 day have now marked a bottoming reversal for XLU. Unrealized gains on the position continued to grow during the week as it entered an uptrend and produced its first green bullish volume bar.
In fact, XLU is also an instrument that can, to some extent, be used to bet on yields peaking (it needs to be used from a long-short or pair-trading perspective); many people simply aren’t aware of this.
SPX, SOXX/DRAM, IWM, MEME, and XLU—these five instruments can form a good long-short combination for the U.S. session.
Five. Positioning in FX trading
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USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Short-long-short: understand the essence of swing trading. Move the take-profit level up slightly again.
2
USDSEK, After reducing the position last week at the T1 target price, we took profits on part of the position again this Tuesday after an Ariston Top forecast signal flashed. The remaining core position was stopped out by the trailing stop.。
This is a fairly common occurrence with the trend-extension doji setup (see last week’s newsletter),because this setup is also a measured-move pattern in its own right.
USDSEK (daily chart, as of 260911)
USDSEK (daily chart, as of 260911) The trend-extension doji is not only an extension setup; it also has the characteristics of a measured-move setup.
3
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》
Understand that price can trace out a perfect move on its own; I draw my lines only at the most critical moments and in the most critical places.
USDMXN(Daily chart, as of 261011)
After USDMXN reached the T3 target price last week, we took partial profits on the position. Although a top forecast signal appeared afterward, this week price returned to T3 again (with a new momentum high), so for now we are taking no further action on the Ariston Top. The stop-based take-profit level has been moved up slightly.
Let me reiterate what I discussed in last week’s newsletter: as with USDKRW (see the publications from each of the past 2 months), if you think that simply drawing a line will make you money, that is an overly naive idea.Charts themselves cannot give you anything. A strong move that can fully unfold, and price action that gives you a sound basis for entering and exiting, must be validated by all three systems: fundamentals, price action, and cross-asset relative pricing and capital flows.
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
Peso Futures (daily chart, as of 261011) is the same, really; some readers trade futures, so this is being updated in parallel.
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USDCAD(Daily chart, as of 261011)
USDCAD reached T1 as expected. Target prices are all set before entry; the phrase “before entry” naturally means they cannot be moved after entry. A reminder for new readers: once you have made a plan, execute it—don’t recklessly change it.
Three things made the move less attractive: 1/ the Ariston Top forecast signal was triggered; 2/ the T1 target price was reached; 3/ price made a new high without confirmation from momentum, creating a divergence.
I don't like anything unattractive, so I closed out most of my positions here; the remainder were passively closed out by the stop.
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USDBRL(Daily chart, as of 261011)
The time check is complete, and the direction is confirmed to remain downward. The weekly public-account post has a review scheduled; essentially, it's still about making a plan and sticking to it strictly. A plan shouldn't just cover technical price levels; it should also include fundamental expectations and preparation for volatility. Being prepared means you can act calmly when needed and feel at ease.
I'm copying last week's newsletter content here, since nothing has changed:
The first round of elections takes place on 10 month 4 day, a possible second round is held on 10 month 25 day, and subsequent fiscal policy are key drivers of the exchange rate. In 2014 and 2022, USDBRL fell after the first round but fully reversed before the second; in 2018, the real was at its strongest on the Friday before the second round. Therefore, The first round can cause substantial exchange-rate volatility, but the effects may not last; the market can turn quickly, so we must be prepared to change direction at any time and make sure we're on the side of the winner.
The stop shouldn't be moved either, because the large event bar that formed the event trade has had no effective follow-through displacement. This also addresses the question many people ask: how do you filter false breakouts and breakdowns intraday? One way is to check whether there is substantial, effective follow-through displacement after the so-called trigger bar (especially one with an exceptionally large or small body) on the corresponding lower timeframe (or the same timeframe, depending on what you're trading). A trend can only be considered established if follow-through displacement occurs after the event bar; otherwise, the stop shouldn't be moved. Note that what I'm describing isn't based on experience or anecdote; it's an objective fact.
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AUDNZD(Weekly chart, as of 261011) The weekly timeframe reached the bullish T3 target price and showed divergence.
About AUDNZD:
1/ Breman and Bullock are clear in their views. 2/ New Zealand QSBO points to a sustained economic recovery; meanwhile, Australia's consumer confidence index fell 4.7% month on month in 10, and was broadly weaker across the board. 3/ NZD Non-commercial net futures positions show that the market has begun to unwind its previous bearish positioning.
Given that AUD/NZD has reached its upside extension target (T3), and momentum is diverging from price action, I'm considering switching my AUD/NZD position from long to short.
9 month 22 day may have marked a top.
This reversal trade is an early position in the price-discovery process. As each gold line is broken to the downside, we'll have the algorithms on our side; a final break below the confirmation level above 1.20 would confirm the possibility of a larger-timeframe reversal.
AUDNZD (Daily chart, as of 261011)
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261011)
...
A chart I'm watching (but didn't trade):
EURCHF(Daily chart, as of 261011)
1/ Called a top in Ariston Top; 2/ then entered a descending channel; 3/ the second leg made a new high within the descending channel, was precisely capped by its upper boundary, and showed divergence between price and momentum. A large bearish bar followed the divergence, and we're now waiting for follow-through displacement.
Six. Mainland positioning
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5D% (as of 261011)
Those interested can find it at Hong Kong Dragon (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies) for more complete details on the 100+ mainland basket trade structure The CN Basket Chartbook began its ongoing series of updates two weeks ago:
Lithium battery Basket (daily chart, as of 261011): unusual behavior appeared, triggering a bullish turn and leaving it one step away from entering an ascending channel.
Wind power Basket (daily chart, as of 261011): unusual behavior appeared.
Dairy Basket (daily chart, as of 261011): unusual behavior appeared.
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Note, top-down monitoring of trading across hundreds of mainland baskets will be fully updated starting this week on Ganglong of《ARI’S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK》The column retains the index structure updates.
Shanghai Composite (daily chart, as of 261011): in a downtrend channel and has not (as of now) formed an Ariston Bottom.
Shenzhen Index (weekly and daily charts, as of 261011): since entering the Ariston Channel downtrend, -20%.
CSI 2000 (daily chart, as of 261011): supported at the lower edge of the channel, making it a relatively strong index.
CSI 500 (daily chart, as of 261011): since entering the Ariston Channel downtrend, -15%.
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Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261011)
Beauty Contest strength Top3 + upward change strength Top3 (as of 261011)
Seven. Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Trade Positioning
1
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 261011)
The rising white line provided precise support, and the short position was closed at a profit according to plan. Here, we are attempting a long position, with the stop placed at the low of the second delayed fractal. In the downtrend channel, hold only a standard core position; do not add a trading position.For more discussion of the fundamentals, see《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》。
...
Meanwhile, the gold Basket traded on the mainland found support as expected after completing its first one-delayed bottom fractal, and formed a recovery day on Friday.
Those who established a core long position at the one-delayed point should still watch the price low on 29 as a narrow-range invalidation level.
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》
Gold Basket (daily chart, as of 261011): after completion of the one-delayed bottom fractal, Friday saw an upward recovery with an expanded range.
2
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 261011)
As discussed last week, silver remains relatively weaker than gold. So even as gold’s structure turns bullish, silver remains in bearish territory; after the marking phase ended, it showed downward momentum during the week, adding greater resistance to an upward path.
Gold-silver ratio (daily chart, as of 261011)
The gold-silver ratio, an indicator of risk appetite for precious metals, remains under pressure and hovered near the bottom of its range at the close of trading this week. This is the main reason silver’s structure is weaker than gold’s. Without silver’s confirming signal and sentiment support, gold also finds it difficult to make a decisive move.
To some extent, you could also say that gold’s bullish structure is supported by liquidity (see the macro trade positioning section of the weekly report), which is also why gold is relatively stronger than silver, given its monetary properties.
...
1) has improved slightly; 2) is the main reason gold has returned to the bullish zone structurally; 3) is still far from it, struggling at the lower boundary
Oil's cross-asset drag has improved slightly (as of 261011)
The broader drag is still continuing (as of 261011)
...
NMX Platinum (daily chart, as of 261011)
NMX Palladium (daily chart, as of 261011)
Palladium is the weakest asset among the precious metals For details, see the discussion in an earlier weekly note.
It has begun to detect abnormal activity near last year's 8 month low, which may form a short-term bottom. Keep an eye on it. This is a weak bottom, as lower highs and lower lows have already appeared at the fractal level. It will only enter a pause in the decline first; there will be no immediate right-side move.
...
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HG1!(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Copper: price continues to rise, while momentum continues to weaken. Our system's top signal issued on 26.09.22 still marks the high for this advance.
It rebounded, but was precisely stopped out at the stop level. The strength exceeded expectations, and this trade may have to be stopped out. However, until the upper boundary of the channel is broken, the main approach will still be to look for opportunities to short.
Eight. Alternative Asset Trade Positioning
1
Xiao Huang (daily chart, as of 261011)
10.02 issued an Ariston Top forecast signal; so far, that candle still marks the high. During the week, it broke below the lower boundary and entered a downward channel.
...
Xiao E (daily chart, as of 261011)
Broadly the same. 09.22 issued an Ariston Top forecast signal, and the high of that day has still not been exceeded. During the week, it broke below the lower boundary and entered a downward channel.
...
Most analysis on the market is complicated and of little significance. The charts and analysis may look elaborate, but they add little: every major upward move has occurred after entering the Ariston Channel's upward channel, and every major downward move has occurred after entering the Ariston Channel's downward channel, without exception.
Why focus on the downside path at this point?
Because on the daily timeframe, it has entered the Ariston Channel's downward channel. The price action is actually smooth and clear. Look for opportunities to go long in the upward channel and to go short in the downward channel. It's simple; there's no need to overcomplicate it.
2
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》
Xiao Huang/Xiao E (daily chart, as of 261011) broke through as expected
If you're wondering why I'm still bullish on Xiao Huang but have flipped to bearish on Xiao E, then I think you should understand my actions after seeing the chart above. Everything I've written here for you is already the essence distilled from the essence. So everything retained in this PDF file is essential; I won't put anything meaningless (at a meaningless time) in my file.
In the weekly note from two weeks ago, I included a relative-value chart for Xiao Huang/Xiao E because, at the time, the pair's downward channel had ended and turned into an upward channel, while volatility was also compressing. Those unfamiliar with this market may not understand why this matters, but if you've been in this market for many years, you should know that these two don't always move together. In fact, periods when their relative value is stable are very rare, and a stable relative value is often followed by a sharp widening of the price spread.
Two days after I reiterated the key level here on 10.04, that level was broken and volatility expanded. I am currently long this pair (long Xiao Huang/Xiao E), with the stop set at the low of the breakout day.
Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations in your region and allocate personal assets only within the bounds of applicable rules. This content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.
Nine. Soft Commodities
1
Agricultural Products Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)
After the previous long/short round, turned long for a second time, with the stop placed at the low of the cover day.
2
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 261011)
After the previous long/short round, the planned price was triggered and a second turn to long was executed. The stop is placed at the low of the trading day on which unusual activity was detected (the entry point of the new capital; failure to hold here would mean the new market players are not strong enough).
Coffee (daily chart, as of 261011)
The planned stop was triggered, and the long position was closed and turned short as planned. The price action has not been smooth; the capital group detected in early June may have already exited.
...
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 261011)
Turned long again. Although the risk/reward is no longer as favorable as it was at the entry several months ago, turning long again after distribution at the top still offers follow-through potential. On Friday, a massive capital operation provided support as trading approached the new long position's stop level. In any case, I am not very sure what is happening, but I am still staying in the market.
3
Raw Sugar (daily chart, as of 261011)
After the previous long/short round, executed a second turn to long. Momentum made a new high, and the stop was moved from SL to PT.
Sugar Basket (daily chart, as of 261011)
Last week's newsletter noted that the mainland sugar basket formed a delayed bottom fractal at Fibonacci support. This week saw a follow-through bar, triggering another turn to long.
4
Corn (daily chart, as of 261011)
Corn: after entering a downward Ariston Channel, the decline continued to accelerate sharply. It has now given back 50%+ of the gain since the low.
The channel is very smooth, but there has been some friction in trade execution. During the week, the automatic take-profit on the position was stopped out by a false breakout (this happens from time to time, and no filter can avoid it one hundred percent). However, the structure was unchanged, so we went short again on Friday, and the decline accelerated further. The stop is placed at that bar's high.
The decline was mainly due to the US supply figure released in USDA being higher than expected, with surprisingly high yield data (US corn yield was raised by 2.7 bushels per acre from 9, the largest increase in yield from 9 to 10 since 2005. The 11-bushel-per-acre increase in Nebraska's yield alone raised the national yield by 1.2 bushels per acre and added 1.06 hundred million bushels to production.), along with higher beginning stocks and a larger crop. Clearly, this is not the narrative the bulls were hoping for.
This is also an example of the news following price. Many people may already have known about it when the market turned short at the top or when price shifted from an uptrend to a downward Ariston Channel. Price determines the news, not the other way around.
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》
Wheat, likewise: the previous position's take-profit was stopped out, and we went short again in the new structure. However, in retrospect, there was indeed an attempt by the bulls around 10.01, as noted in last week's newsletter:
The decline accelerated, and the take-profit level was moved lower again. Unusual activity was detected at 10.01, followed by a delayed bottom fractal the next day. A break below the low at 10.01 would constitute the next downward move, targeting T1.
Wheat (daily chart, as of 261011): previous position stopped out; short position reopened
...
5
LE (daily chart, as of 261011)
After unusual activity was detected at 09.03, a second wave of the capital group entered during the week. Price began to rally three days after their entry and has now broken above the previous narrow trading range. The stop can therefore be moved up, from SL to PT. This trade is now in a safe zone; let it unfold on its own.
GF (daily chart, as of 261011)
GF made a similar move and has risen more since 09.03, the first day of action monitoring, but the action has not been consistent. These two should continue to be monitored together.
6
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 261004》
CT (daily chart, as of 261011)
The first batch of bullish trading bars on the smaller timeframe of 10.04, which I singled out in last week’s weekly review, formed the actual low of a higher low. Accordingly, as planned, I closed my shorts and went long on this week’s follow-up bar. As this is a downward channel following the Ariston Top, expectations for the risk-reward ratio here should not be too high.
7
For mainland instruments, see “ARI'S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK (COMMODITY)”; I will not include it again here.
Ten. Oil and natural gas
1
BRN(Daily chart, as of 261011)
Still within the structure; watch for the increase in volatility that a breakout from the structure may bring.
HO (daily chart, as of 261011)
A downward channel, below the white line, with an unfavorable risk-reward ratio; bulls can respond flexibly to a downward reversal with tight stops.
2
NG (daily chart, as of 261011)
In a marked state, with a flashing Ariston Top; reduced the position in part. The Top appeared very early, making it difficult for the risk-reward ratio to develop. Below the yellow line is a range-bound market; watch it yourself.
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Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
