全球市场笔记 GLOBAL MARKET NOTES

April thirteenth, two thousand twenty-six April 13, 2026

“A Potential Mispricing Zone”

《A Potential Mispricing Zone》

Author: Ariston

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I. What the Market Prefers, What It Avoids: A Potential Mispricing Zone

Over the recent period, tech has gone through one of its weakest stretches of relative performance in the past 50 years. This pricing outcome is mainly driven by two new questions: 1) the market keeps questioning hyperscaler ROI, and 2) AI disruption risk is rewriting terminal-state assumptions across many tech sub-sectors.

More than that, one of Wall Street's hottest recent debates has been the systemic doubt over whether the Magnificent 7 can outperform the market forever, Investors’ fears are increasingly focused on buying the AI-era equivalents of Kodak, IBM, Nokia, and Blackberry—old giants whose business models were crushed outright by a new wave of technology. Software is particularly exposed: the terminal value once supported by faith in long-term growth and low discount rates is now, for the first time, being seriously marked down.

More than that, one of Wall Street's hottest recent debates has been the systemic doubt over whether the Magnificent 7 can outperform the market forever. Capital's fear is increasingly concentrated on buying the AI-era equivalents of Kodak, IBM, Nokia, or Blackberry, old giants whose business models were crushed outright by a new technology wave. Software is especially exposed: the terminal value that used to be supported by a long-duration growth belief and low discount rates is now, for the first time, being seriously marked down.

The result is that correlations inside big tech have fallen while dispersion has risen:

Chart: Performance of different thematic trading baskets during the war, after the ceasefire, and year to date

The chart above shows performance broken down by basket. Themes such as optical networking, data centers, storage, and memory not only delivered the best YTD performance, but also saw relatively limited drawdowns during the war and rebounded fastest after the ceasefire. Clearly, these are the market's preferred core positions to keep adding to on pullbacks. By contrast, software, IT services, and the broader AI-at-risk complex were heavily shorted during the conflict and faced even stronger short-selling after the ceasefire. In other words, a persistent trend within tech has been certainty in the picks-and-shovels segment versus uncertainty around end applications. This dynamic is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

The chart above is a basket-by-basket performance breakdown. Themes such as optical networking, data centers, storage, and memory not only have the best YTD performance, but also saw relatively limited drawdowns during the war and then rebounded the fastest after the ceasefire. Clearly, these are the market's preferred core positions to keep adding on pullbacks. By contrast, software, IT services, and the broader AI-at-risk complex were heavily shorted during the conflict and kept facing even stronger selling after the ceasefire. In other words, a persistent trend inside tech has been certainty in the picks-and-shovels segment versus uncertainty around end applications. This dynamic is likely to remain in place for the visible future.

...

But at the same time, At the same time, are there potential names being indiscriminately sold off among the shorted parts of tech and the broader growth universe outside tech?

At the same time, are there potential names being indiscriminately sold off among the shorted parts of tech and the broader growth universe outside tech?

There may well be...

There probably are...

Take GS's Rule of 10 basket as an example. After excluding the most heavily shorted software stocks, the median P/E of those non-software growth stocks is currently 29x, at a premium of about 53% to the S&P median, likewise close to the bottom of the past ten-year range; meanwhile, consensus still expects their sales growth in 2027 to be 3 times the S&P median.

Take GS's Rule of 10 basket as an example. After excluding the software names that have been hit the hardest on the short side, the median P/E of those non-software growth stocks is now 29x, about a 53% premium to the S&P median, which is likewise close to the bottom of the past decade's range. Yet the market still expects their 2027 sales growth to be roughly 3 times the S&P median.

those truly high-quality non-software growth stocks, whose valuations have come down considerably, but whose growth has not collapsed:

Those truly high-quality non-software growth names have already seen their valuations come down a lot, but their growth has not collapsed:

Chart: A potential broad-growth hitting zone reflecting indiscriminate selling

Chart: A potential broad-growth hitting zone created by indiscriminate selling

If the future macro backdrop proves to be one of only a mild growth slowdown rather than a deep recession then the secular-growth complex, especially the non-software growth segment, will start to regain allocation appeal, This segment is shifting away from shock narratives toward businesses with real growth, supply constraints, and no direct AI substitution risk.

If the future macro backdrop turns out to be one of only a mild growth slowdown rather than a deep recession, then the secular-growth complex, especially the non-software growth segment, will start to regain allocation appeal. What this part of the market is doing is shifting away from pure shock narratives toward businesses with real growth, supply constraints, and no direct AI substitution risk.

Some assets have already demonstrated growth, but their valuations have cooled considerably,

Some assets have already validated their growth, yet their valuations have clearly cooled,

At the current point in time, their expected returns are already better than those of continuing to chase a handful of core names trading at elevated levels:

and at the current point in time their expected returns already look better than continuing to chase a small number of crowded core winners at elevated levels:

(Stay disciplined on entries and exits; do not rush to catch the bottom!)

(Stay disciplined on entries and exits; do not rush to catch the bottom.)

Chart: AXON (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: AXON (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: CVNA (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: CVNA (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: SMCI (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: SMCI (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: DASH (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: DASH (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: ANET (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: ANET (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: PODD (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: PODD (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: META (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: META (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: UBER (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: UBER (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: ISRG (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: ISRG (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: TPL (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: TPL (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: NFLX (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: NFLX (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: LLY (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: LLY (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: AMZN (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: AMZN (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: DXCM (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: DXCM (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: BXS (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: BXS (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

II. On Compute Constraints: Why This Is Far From Over

The broader industry view is that compute constraints are far from over.There is still nowhere near enough compute. Bottlenecks extend from fabs, data-center permitting, power, and memory all the way to labor, and these constraints are unlikely to ease quickly for the foreseeable future. This means AI infrastructure is not a theme that will play out in just one or two quarters, but a structural theme defined by long-term capacity constraints and capital chasing opportunities over the long term.

A broader industry judgment is that the compute constraint is nowhere near over. There is still nowhere close to enough compute today. The bottlenecks run all the way from fabs, data-center permitting, power, and memory through to labor, and none of these constraints are likely to disappear quickly in the visible future. That means AI infrastructure is not a theme that gets traded out in one or two quarters; it is a structural theme of long-duration capacity scarcity and long-duration capital chasing.

Take Terafab as an example:

Chart: The AI infrastructure wave is likely to last for a very long time

For industry players on the front lines, no one understands the state of the industry better than they do. Musk's central argument is that the incremental AI compute capacity from the fabs currently on Earth represents only a small fraction of demand. Even if the traditional supply chain expands at full speed, it will still be insufficient, so entirely new, terafab-scale infrastructure must be built.

For participants active at the industry's front line, no one has a clearer view of operating conditions than they do. Musk's core point is that incremental AI compute capacity from the fabs currently on earth represents only a small fraction of demand. Even if the traditional supply chain expands at full speed, it still will not be enough, which is why entirely new terafab-scale infrastructure has to be built.

Furthermore, as terrestrial power becomes increasingly expensive and harder to expand, space data centers—a theme that still seems like science fiction today—are ultimately bound to be considered over the long term.

Going one step further, as terrestrial power becomes increasingly expensive and harder to expand, space data centers, a theme that still looks science-fiction-like today, are ultimately bound to enter the investable discussion over the long run.

Chart: Space Compute

图：Space Compute

III. The Makeup Cycle: A New Upswing May Be Approaching

New-consumption trends are showing clear signs of a shift in makeup, and a new upswing may be approaching.Market aesthetic preferences are shifting away from the clean-girl, low-key, skincare-oriented makeup looks of the past few years toward styles that emphasize self-expression, definition, and a more prominent makeup look. Historically, this kind of aesthetic shift has been a key leading indicator of rising makeup penetration, broader product categories, and more frequent innovation.

New-consumption activity is showing clear changes in the makeup category, and a new upswing may be approaching. The market's aesthetic preference is shifting away from the clean-girl, low-presence, skincare-leaning looks of the past few years toward a direction that emphasizes self-expression, contouring, and stronger makeup presence. Historically, this kind of aesthetic shift has been a key leading signal for rising makeup penetration, richer category breadth, and faster innovation frequency.

Chart: Makeup Product Search Interest Spikes in 3

图：Makeup Product Search Interest Spikes in March

The leading signal for the makeup cycle comes from eye makeup. In fact, eye makeup went through a fairly visible regimen pullback over the past few years. When eye makeup turns stronger again, it usually means consumers are not merely restocking one or two items, but are re-entering a more complete makeup routine. According to Circana, U.S. prestige eye makeup turned positive for the first time in 25 3, and subsequent Euromonitor data further confirmed this improvement trend.

The leading signal for the makeup cycle comes from eye makeup. In fact, eye makeup went through a fairly visible regimen pullback over the past few years. When eye makeup turns stronger again, it usually means consumers are not merely restocking one or two items, but are re-entering a more complete makeup routine. According to Circana, U.S. prestige eye makeup turned positive for the first time in Q3 2025, and subsequent Euromonitor data further confirmed this improvement trend.

Validation beyond the data comes from feedback from brands, retailers, and contract manufacturers. Companies are increasingly emphasizing reset, expanded assortments, and incremental innovation. As consumer interest picks up, both channels and brands are also becoming more willing to commit shelf space, SKU, and new-product resources to this trend.

Validation beyond the data comes from feedback across brands, retailers, and contract manufacturers. Companies are increasingly emphasizing reset, expanded assortments, and incremental innovation. As consumer interest picks up, both the channel side and the brands are also becoming more willing to commit shelf space, SKUs, and new-product resources to this trend.

Chart: ELF (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: ELF (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: ULTA (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: ULTA (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Chart: ITRK (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: ITRK (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

IV. Uranium and Nuclear Power: Stable Fundamentals and Micro-Level Divergence

Spot uranium prices have started to stabilize. In 3, spot U3O8 fell from the high-$86/lb area at the start of the month, briefly slipping below roughly $84/lb, but by month-end it had stabilized again around $84/lb. Term prices, meanwhile, held roughly steady around $90/lb, extending the higher platform established after 2's move up. Overall, near-term trading sentiment has cooled somewhat, but long-end pricing has not loosened. The main reason is that the long-term fundamental backdrop has not changed:

Spot uranium prices have started to stabilize. In March, spot U3O8 fell from the low-$86/lb area at the start of the month, briefly slipping below roughly $84/lb, but by month-end it had stabilized again around $84/lb. Term prices, meanwhile, held roughly steady around $90/lb, extending the higher platform established after February's move up. Overall, near-term trading sentiment has cooled somewhat, but long-end pricing has not loosened. The main reason is that the long-duration fundamental backdrop has not changed:

Chart: 2026 spot and term prices as of 3 31 U3O8

图：Spot and term U3O8 prices as of 3/31/2026

So far, year-to-date spot transaction volume in 2026 remains significantly above the same period last year, but term volume is clearly below the average for the past 5 years and also below the replacement rate. Buyers are more cautious and more inclined to wait in a high-price environment. But As long as utilities have not truly completed their long-term restocking, this delayed contracting will only push the eventual shortfall further out.

So far, spot transaction volume in 2026 year to date is still materially above the same period last year, but term volume is clearly below the five-year average and also below the replacement rate. Buyers are more cautious and more inclined to wait in a high-price environment. But as long as utilities have not truly completed their long-term restocking, this delayed contracting only pushes the eventual gap further out in time.

Chart: URA (daily chart, as of 260413). After exiting in early 2, it has now turned bullish again.

Chart: URA (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13). After exiting in early February, it has now turned bullish again.

Nuclear-related equities have not performed well as a group over the past three months, but the internal style split is very clear. CCJ has held up relatively well. UEC is down, but it has still outperformed SMR because it benefits more directly from uranium prices. By contrast, technology-platform companies represented by SMR have sold off sharply, pressured not only by risk-off conditions but also by fundamental cash burn, uncertainty around customer signings, and the lack of near-term tangible catalysts.

Chart: CCJ (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: CCJ (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

Positioning data points to the same conclusion: SMR is the area within nuclear coverage where short interest has risen the most, whereas short interest in CCJ and UEC continues to decline. In other words, The market is now more willing to express the nuclear-power theme through the resource and fuel chains, and less willing, in the current environment, to show much patience with companies like SMR, which have high valuations and a long path to realization.

Positioning data shows the same result. SMR is the area within nuclear coverage where short interest has risen the most, whereas short interest in CCJ and UEC continues to fall. In other words, the market is currently more willing to express the nuclear-power theme through the resource and fuel chains, and less willing in this environment to give much patience to companies like SMR that trade at high valuations and have a long path to cash-flow realization.

Chart: SMR overlaid with CCJ (daily chart, as of 260413)

Chart: SMR overlaid with CCJ (daily chart, as of 2026-04-13)

V. Some Charts

1 / In the latest Mic consumer survey, if the preliminary reading for early 4 is not materially revised in the final release, it will be the lowest level in the history of the indicator. Households’ subjective experience has already moved markedly close to an extreme stress zone. This contrasts sharply with current market pricing: consumer sentiment has collapsed, but the equity market has not reflected this in a deep, synchronized risk-off move. One major reason is that the market has already entered earnings season, and from the perspective of sell-side earnings revisions, the U.S. and Europe have not seen a synchronized, systemic EPS downgrade. In other words, although individuals’ experiences are worsening at the micro level, this has not yet translated into a recession trade in earnings expectations. The market is trading the future, not the present.

1 / In the latest Mic consumer survey, if the early-April reading is not revised materially in the final release, it will be the lowest level in the history of the series. Households' subjective perception has already moved visibly close to an extreme stress zone. This stands in sharp contrast with current market pricing: consumer sentiment has fallen apart, yet the equity market has not reflected that in a synchronized deep risk-off move. One major reason is that the market has already entered earnings season, and from the standpoint of sell-side earnings revisions, the U.S. and Europe have not seen a synchronized, systemic EPS downgrade cycle. In other words, even though micro-level lived experience is worsening, earnings expectations have not yet translated into a recession trade. The market is trading the future, not the present.

Chart: A consumer survey result that can fairly be described as very poor

2/ What is somewhat counterintuitive is that since the Iran war began, STOXX 600 consensus profit-margin expectations for 26 have actually been revised up.At least so far, the first-round impact of the war on European earnings expectations has not shown up as a synchronized collapse across the whole market. The main support behind those upward revisions has come from financials and energy, which means the index-level resilience is being held up more by a small number of sectors than by broad-based earnings improvement. Looking further, most of the earnings downgrades in Europe ex Financials and Commodities actually come from margin compression rather than a clear cliff in revenues.In other words, the current problem for European companies is the erosion of profits by costs and pricing pass-through, not an obvious weakening on the demand side. This distinction matters, because margin downgrades usually imply continued internal dispersion.

2 / More counterintuitively, since the Iran war began, 2026 consensus profit-margin expectations for the STOXX 600 have in fact been revised up. At least so far, the first-round impact of the war on European earnings expectations has not shown up as a synchronized collapse across the whole market. The main support behind those upward revisions has come from financials and energy, which means the index-level resilience is being held up more by a small number of sectors than by broad-based earnings improvement. Looking further, most of the earnings downgrades in Europe ex Financials and Commodities actually come from margin compression rather than a clear cliff in revenues. In other words, the current problem for European corporates is the erosion of profits by costs and pricing pass-through, not an obvious weakening on the demand side. That distinction matters, because margin downgrades usually imply continuing internal dispersion.

Chart: Upward revisions and dispersion

In addition to Financials and Commodities, Europe has another special case: Hardware & IT Equipment. In the current environment, hardware and IT equipment are not only AI beneficiaries in the U.S. market, but also one of the few growth pockets in Europe still receiving support from earnings revisions.

In fact, outside Financials and Commodities, Europe has another special case: Hardware & IT Equipment. In the current environment, hardware and IT equipment are not only AI beneficiaries in the U.S. market, but also one of the few growth pockets in Europe still receiving support from earnings revisions.

...

End of full text.

The companion U.S. equities, A/H shares, and commodities channels cover additional market details, and their content is continuously being developed:

The companion U.S. equities, A/H shares, and commodities channels cover additional market detail and are still being continuously expanded:

U.S. equities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

U.S. equities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies

A/H shares:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

A/H shares: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies

Commodities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

Commodities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies

Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.

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