_____________________________________________________
Loach
18 October 2026
Notice: By reading, subscribing to, browsing, forwarding, saving, or otherwise using content on this Planet, you are deemed to have fully read, understood, and agreed to this disclaimer;If you do not agree, please stop using this content and exit immediately.All content on this Planet is provided solely for personal research, information organization, and educational exchange. It does not constitute any investment advice, recommendation to buy or sell, solicitation of an offer, promise of returns, asset management service, or investment advisory service. Nor does reading, subscribing, interacting, or using the content create any legal relationship such as that of client, principal, trustee, or adviser. The content does not take into account any recipient’s financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, or suitability requirements. Recipients should verify the information themselves, make their own independent assessments and decisions, and bear all investment risks and consequences. The information herein may come from public sources, third-party data, market information, personal judgment, or model analysis, and may be delayed, incomplete, erroneous, biased, or invalid. The author makes no guarantees as to its truthfulness, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability. Past performance, historical examples, backtest results, and accurate past views are not indicative of future performance and do not guarantee returns.Without permission, you may not copy, screenshot, screen-record, forward, adapt, compile, or use this content for purposes such as stock recommendations, fundraising, managing money on behalf of others, or commercial promotion. The person engaging in such conduct bears all resulting consequences!
To subscribe on an Apple device, copy the relevant subscription link into a WeChat chat and open it there.
FICC&MACRO Main column subscription:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=cross-market-strategies
CN Data, research notes, and commentary subscription:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies
US Data, research notes, and commentary subscription:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies
Additional research on commodity markets:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies
Links: Sean’s global market technical analysis column:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=vega-trading
Zero. Loach
To survive in the market, be like a loach and keep yourself slippery.Being able to “see reality” means you are already halfway to success; being able to “respect reality” can make you stand out. It is a simple thing, yet for people it is the hardest thing to do. That is why it is both not difficult and indeed very difficult.Emotions are meaningless. There is only one purpose in the market; nothing else should be the objective. P&L and the equity curve are the objective and the reality.
The reason many trading strategies imported from the West cannot be used in the A-share market is that you cannot truly “control” your losses, The key to following the big players is flexibility When what is arguably the greatest (and almost only) advantage available to small accounts—“admitting mistakes promptly” (the entire Western trading system is built on this key premise)—is firmly constrained by objective mechanisms, making money with approaches unsuited to the environment is extremely difficult, because your only advantage is being severely weakened, unless you can strictly limit the number of trades and truly act only on the few exceptionally attractive opportunities (where all three systems confirm one another).
I. Macro Trading Positioning
US10Y(Weekly and daily charts, as of 261018)
Two weeks ago, we noted that US10Y was forming a weekly-level Failed Breakout (FBO) targeting the 2007 annual high. Since then, the top pattern has formed as expected, and this week it officially triggered the Ariston Top forecast signal (red arrow in the chart).
Policy pricing at the front end of the yield curve is also shifting. Early in the week, the market briefly priced in roughly four cumulative rate hikes for 2027; subsequently, several Fed officials spoke, and rate-cut expectations re-emerged. As of publication, a rate hike in 10 month has been ruled out by the market, and current pricing points to only about one hike in 12 month.
The Fed has probably reached a compromise on continuing to raise rates, but the pace will slow to one hike every other meeting. They are very focused on maintaining consensus around this compromise, which means the bar for deviating from this plan will remain high through the end of the year.If they maintain this pace next year, they would consider another hike after two more meetings following 12 month—that is, in 3 month... But by then, improving month-over-month inflation data, combined with the energy shock entering the comparison base and making a sharp decline in year-over-year inflation likely, may lead them to conclude that further hikes are unnecessary. Therefore, the second rate hike delivered in 12 month may also be the final hike of this cycle.
...
After showing signs of weakness last week, the daily trend has triggered a bearish signal and entered the Ariston Channel downtrend.
TLT(Daily chart, as of 261011)
TLT reached the target price in our previous buy plan this week, and we executed it strictly according to plan. See the chart for the latest structure.
...
The market’s assessment of the policy path often differs greatly from the eventual outcome.A year ago, the federal funds target rate was 4.25%; at the time, the one-year forward contract expiring this month and covering this Fed meeting—the 10 month contract—priced in more than four, nearly five, rate cuts. What actually happened was two rate cuts followed by one hike, for a net effect equivalent to just one rate cut.
Expectations of nearly five rate cuts ultimately amounted to just one net cut. This reminds us that market pricing is not a reliable prophecy; expectations, analysis, and judgments must all be tested against subsequent price action.We place greater faith in price itself and use price action as the basis for execution;In this era of rapid change, staying flexible and adjusting to the evidence is more important than clinging to any one view.
...
Finally, Whether the long end remains under control still depends on how the quarterly refunding announcement the day after the U.S. election addresses the supply of long-term Treasury debt.
...
Macro Drivers (as of 261018)
Macro theme logical trade activity (as of 261018)
Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; gold-edged dots indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261018)
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 261018) Real financial conditions (market pricing) overlaid with precious metals, technology, and alternative asset composites
Our internal real financial conditions index bottomed first two weeks ago, ahead of the shift in rate pricing and market narratives. This turning point has now been further confirmed.This provides a relatively favorable financial-conditions backdrop for precious metals and global equities, with the risk of a catastrophic collapse reduced, at least from a liquidity perspective (which is the key reason the S&P equal-weight index remains relatively intact).
II. Technology Trade Positioning
KOSPI(Daily and hourly charts, as of 261018)
“Is it complicated? No. The Korea index has remained precisely below the white horizontal line for nearly two months since we drew it. (None of my lines are drawn arbitrarily; they are all carefully drawn. Some people’s lines are worthless, while others’ are worth a lot.) During this period, randomly reacting to various indicators, news, and intraday fluctuations has, aside from further increasing account drawdowns, made it very difficult to achieve good results.Learn to act at critical moments. The hard part is not making rash moves. You listen to this person and that person, look all around, and keep changing your mind; all you get is losses. There is no need to pay attention before the horizontal line breaks. Below the gold line is the bearish zone.”
This week, KOSPI duly saw a massive breakdown lower after breaking below the gold line. Learn to act only at critical moments, and to truly recognize and respect reality.
To survive in the market, be like a loach and keep yourself slippery.Being able to “see reality” means you are already halfway to success; being able to “respect reality” can make you stand out. It is a simple thing, yet for people it is the hardest thing to do. That is why it is both not difficult and indeed very difficult.We lost many followers after going short, and the abuse in our inbox has grown. But emotions are meaningless; there is only one purpose in the market, and nothing else should become the goal. P&L and the equity curve are the goal and the reality.
A four-hour Ariston Bottom prediction signal has appeared. Watch to see whether the decline stalls here; if the signal is rejected, price will head toward T3.
SOXX(Daily chart, as of 261018)
SOXL PERPETUAL (daily chart, as of 261018)
“The market has actually been discussing AI exhaustively for a long time. In our weekly newsletter, we have also discussed the various possible scenarios and concerns over and over. When we find there is nothing more to say, that itself is a problem. One sign of full pricing-in is a narrowing trading range, After the range narrows, a breakout point generally indicates the direction, and then funds begin piling in all at once, bringing about the next widening of the range.。
At this stage, the most important thing is to make every effort to stay in the market at low cost (ideally at zero cost or with a small profit) and remain flexible, positioned on the side of the latest bullish or bearish setup. That way, when the trend starts, we can have the largest possible cushion of safety (the first bar of range expansion is unpredictable and often contributes the most in the early stages; it largely determines whether you can psychologically hold on through the subsequent move), and sit comfortably in first class on the next flight.”
In U.S. market semiconductor trading, we made our first move after entering the uptrend, then flipped short after a bearish signal was triggered on 10.08. As of now, it has fallen about 15% and stalled precisely at the T1 target level that we had planned before entering the trade.
When it entered the Ariston Channel downtrend, we began to detect market-cap management funds stepping in (in the U.S. market, this is generally some large asset-management institutions); this shows interference with the declining structure on the counterparty side, Taking the monitoring results and the target price being reached into account, we took profits on part of our short position at T1, while the remainder was exited passively in line with PT (see the Profit Taking marker on the chart).
DRAM(Daily chart, as of 261018)
The structure and critical moment SOXL PERPETUAL can be seen more clearly here: SOX set the longest losing streak since 2008, and this week’s decline was about 11.5%, also one of the largest weekly losses in more than a decade, while our short entry was at the point where the decline formally began and the truly explosive move started to extend, the critical point to sell before the move began.
Understand it in light of reality“Continuously putting yourself, at low cost, in the optimal position within the optimal structure”My system is a practical system, concerned with the here and now, whereas so-called analysis is rear-view-mirror logic (that is, what most books and things on the market tell you). The key is that using a rear-view-mirror perspective, it is never possible to excel at placing a bet here and now; this is the fundamental reason most people are bad at trading, because your foundation itself is wrong—not right.Those who executed their bets exceptionally well did so because the fundamental reason most people struggle to trade is that their foundation is wrong.
...
DRAM, this was a classic break below an upward trendline, while last week also happened to provide the preliminary warm-up for the Ariston Channel parameters.A favorable alignment of timing, location and people (often, “just right” is also something that happens naturally—and is the greatest help)., which helped us further strengthen our conviction in holding short positions in the downtrend. Since turning bearish last week, the decline has been smooth～22%, and the price has now reached the T1 target. As this trading instrument has not been listed long enough, we cannot break down the funds supposedly involved in market-capitalization management. However, trading volume does show some unusual activity, so we also took profits and exited part of the position at T1, while letting the rest follow Profit Taking and await passive exit.
The 5D performance of the subjects viewed bottom-up in TECH MONITOR (as of 261018)
...
For more details, see “ARI’s WEEKLY CHARTBOOK(TECH), including microstructure updates on the subjects covered in all TECH MONITOR.
Example CRWV (daily chart, as of 261018)
Be sure to read it alongside!!Be sure to read these together!!
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 261018)
TECH MONITOR CN BASKETS (daily chart, as of 261018)
The issue is that it remains in the Ariston Channel downtrend. It is all the same, whether 50, 20%, or STAR Market T1: technology stocks in China, the United States, and South Korea are all in downtrends, which means
The issue is that they are still in the Ariston Channel downtrend. It is the same across the board: whether KOSPI, SOXX, or STAR Market 50, technology stocks in China, the US and Korea are all in downtrends, which means that the renewed right-side move led by technology bulls is indeed unlikely to materialize, at least for now.
...
Since CN BASKET began holding short positions across the board two weeks ago, they are now generally down by 15%～30%“Compared with making a lot of money all at once in certain places, controlling drawdowns should be the most important goal for market participants. A strategy that can make a lot of money all at once can also lose a lot of money all at once; gains and losses always come from the same source. Focusing on the former makes it difficult to be both long-lasting and good (good, and good for the long run) at the same time; focusing on the latter can achieve this, because
the latter (controlling drawdowns) is oriented toward compounding. The key to compounding is cutting losses short—protecting principal as much as possible to control downside risk—and letting profits run. For more on this, see Paul Tudor Jones’s interviews. He is in the books recommended a couple of weeks ago, or you should also be able to find some of his early material on YouTube; it is very valuable.”YouTube
Optical chips (daily chart, as of 261018) have fallen ~35% since turning bearish; sold before the decline and losses accelerated
Switches (daily chart, as of 261018) have fallen ~20% since turning bearish; sold before the decline and losses accelerated
“If you have a clear basis for when to enter and exit, the market cannot hurt you (see the CN Baskets below; if you have been diligently reading ‘ARI’s WEEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN)’ every week), then this round of declines would not have hurt you at all—The vast majority had already formed bearish structures by 9.24）”
For more complete details on the mainland trading baskets, see ‘ARI’s WEEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN),’ which provides weekly updates on the structural positioning of hundreds of baskets.
CN BASKETS long/short NAV (as of 261018)
Discussion of the lack of effectiveness of Western trading strategies when applied to the mainland market
The chart on the left shows the simulated performance curve of CN Baskets L&S. The reason for saying this is that Things actually became more comfortable after 924(As reflected by NAV finally recovering its drawdown and resuming its upward move after two months of grinding losses.) This was because the bearish structure was very clear: it had appeared before the decline with expanding volatility and remained in place throughout.
Market participants do not need to fear being long or short in itself; neither long nor short positions alone will make you lose money. You only lose money when the structure keeps reversing—because in this market, it is impossible to [admit you are wrong in time] (many Western-imported trading strategies are ineffective in A-shares...). The moment you put on a position, you inherently take on asymmetric downside risk.
And for this reason, having a clear basis for when to enter and exit becomes extremely important.
Three. Global equity positioning
Global equity beauty contest matrix: red means unanimously short, green means unanimously long, and gray means disagreement; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261018)
ACWI(Daily chart, as of 261018)
ACWI is in a downward channel within a top double-rectangle consolidation (see the purple box on the chart at left). Meanwhile, attempts to form highs within the downward channel have been blocked by the Ariston Top forecast. This is not a favorable structural setup, For equity bulls, the best course is actually not a rebound within the small rectangle (given the range is too narrow for positions to change hands sufficiently), but to wait for a structure to form after support at the lower edge of the large rectangle—at the late-July low.
..
There are no green dots for Crowned in the global equity beauty contest matrix; some appear in the Rising range. Monitor these yourself.
Global equity logical trade anomalies (Economic) (as of 261018)
Global equity logical trade anomalies (Structure) (as of 261018)
Watch for turning points or support lines (draw these yourself; this is an assignment).
NIFTY(Daily chart, as of 261018)
NKD1!(Daily chart, as of 261018)
NIFTY, the Failed Breakout at 10.08 has been confirmed, triggering a buy this week and entry into the Ariston Channel’s upward channel.
...
NKD, following our attempt to turn bearish last week, has now seen volatility expand and fallen into the Ariston Channel’s upward channel. This Opening short positions early is not behavior that should be emulated. For everyone, it is better to wait for confirmation before acting, to avoid following in Livemore’s footsteps. I can act early because I strictly control position risk, although this is indeed not a good habit in itself.
I explained the reasons for turning bearish in the uptrend about two weeks ago. At the time, many U.S. institutions messaged me privately to ask what I thought about the Nikkei’s potential decline (quite a few people were watching this downside path and preparing to “kick a man when he’s down”). And there was indeed a divergence in the momentum details at the time. It was small, but it still formed a bearish pattern (see the gold-line divergence on the chart).
...
HSTECH (daily chart, as of 261018)
EWZ(Daily chart, as of 261018)
HSTECH issued an Ariston Bottom signal on 10.09, but the price has yet to confirm it. To go long, the price needs to break above the bears’ PT level.There is no need to rush in early. If a move really happens, it will be impossible to miss. There is no need.
...
EWZ Another long trade has ended, with a reversal to the short side. The short stop is placed above the bar preceding the Ariston Top forecast. Since we started following Brazil, we have completed more than ten outstanding long and short swing trades:
“Is it just drawing lines? To some extent, yes, but they don’t see the long-term research and effort behind it.—If you scroll back, and then further back... you’ll find that last year I was already discussing this year’s 10-month Brazilian election.This is a long-range operation from a fundamental perspective. No one can predict what will happen, but you can do your homework in advance and know 1) where volatility may occur, and when it may occur; 2) what possible reaction paths there may be if volatility occurs, and what to expect from each path.。
Of course, those people won’t pay attention to any of this either. They only see what’s right in front of them and what they want to see... You can’t do that.”
The runoff race has tightened significantly (as of 261018)
Prediction Market Odds (daily chart, as of 261018)
Behind the reversal. Prediction markets still favor Bolsonaro, but the gap in the odds is no longer as wide as it was after the first round of voting.
IV. U.S. Equity Market Positioning
SPX(Daily chart, as of 261018)
IWM(Daily chart, as of 261018)
After an unhealthy new high, SPX has now entered a bearish structure and closed on the uptrend line. A break below this trend line would point to a T1 target price at 7.4k.
“However, the ‘new high’ during the week came with a divergence in momentum. What is clear is that this is not a healthy top... The unhealthy top is evident not only in the internal structure of SPX, but also in the fact that, as a new high was made, the market broke below the uptrend line drawn earlier during IWM. We opened short at the break, as stated in the previous weekly report, Small-cap performance is a key proxy for assessing recession risk，A break below this level means the economic-growth narrative is beginning to show micro-level cracks. A further break below the earlier Ariston Bottom forecast level would confirm the recession narrative.。”
Meanwhile, small caps, a key proxy for recession risk, have broken below the white line and continue to slide lower. Momentum is currently in a dotting state, If the dotting state turns negative, it will become A key confirmation of market pricing for economic growth and credit risk。
Chart:《ARI's WEEKLY WRAP 260920》
MEME(Daily chart, as of 261018)
MAGS(Daily chart, as of 261018)
MEME has fallen by ~25% since 10.08, when longs took profits and exited, and the position turned short, The decline accelerated after Monday’s open this week, when price broke below the lower boundary of the 8.2 Ariston Channel. The key is to understand how the structure’s forces dictate when to advance and when to retreat:
“The take-profit was triggered; I closed the position and reversed as planned. The channel’s lower boundary is above 8.2, and a break below it here would sharply increase downside risk.”
Price has now reached T1, where I am taking profits on part of the position. If a rebound occurs here, it could form a volatility-compression structure with a higher low than in late July; volatility could then expand in the direction of a subsequent break from the compression structure.
...
MAGS, the Ariston Top mentioned in last week’s weekly report took effect after the price reached the T1 target, After my top-prediction signal was issued, price made a false high with momentum divergence, then fell and entered a downtrend channel.
The short-side PT is set at Friday’s trading high; to turn long, price needs to break above this level.
...
KWEB(Daily chart, as of 261018)
XLU(Daily chart, as of 261018)
KWEB, approaching the upper channel boundary; watch to see whether it can break through.
...
“Actually, XLU is also, to some extent, an instrument for betting that yields have peaked (it needs to be used from a long/short or pair-trading perspective),but many people are not aware of this.”
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
XLU, Our entry on 9 month 29 day and the Ariston Bottom signal issued on 10 month 1 day have now marked the bottoming turning point in XLU; unrealized gains on the position continued to grow during the week, the advance was smooth, and I continue to raise the take-profit level.
...
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; the gold-edged dots are moving toward the upper right (as of 261018).
Rotation and baton-passing are reflected in the indices by equal-weighted stocks outperforming.
SPXEW/SPX YTD (daily chart, as of 261018)
The equal-weighted S&P 500 has performed very well since 10 month and has outperformed the market-cap-weighted S&P year to date, whereas earlier the relative strength of the two was completely reversed.When AI is in favor, market-cap weighting outperforms; when AI falls out of favor, equal weighting outperforms.Because the market-cap-weighted index has a concentration problem, the equal-weighted index is more useful for assessing the broader market.
In fact, measured from the 6 month high, the market-cap-weighted S&P is currently little changed, while the equal-weighted S&P has continued to rise.As long as the economy remains resilient and has momentum, and that momentum is not entirely dependent on AI, equity-market pullbacks will be relatively limited. That is the most important takeaway this week.
JPM indicates that year-over-year growth in credit- and debit-card transactions is about 10%, while Citi and WF have also offered similarly positive signals, pointing to strong nominal spending. However, a large part of that growth comes from higher gasoline prices, meaning that a substantial share of nominal growth is price-driven. The banking system as a whole continues to lend at a healthy pace, and credit continues to flow. The economy is not as strong as the headline nominal figures suggest, but overall it remains solid.
Large technology companies are about to report earnings one after another; this is the next truly important turning point, The key is how large AI and cloud business participants describe growth.
...
Five. FX Trading Positioning
USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 261011)
USDSEK(Daily chart, as of 261011)
USDKRW, short-long-short: understanding the essence of swing trading. Continue to move the take-profit point forward in small increments.
...
USDSEK, after closing out the previous long position at the T1 target price, officially switched to a short position this week:
“USDSEK, after reducing the position at the T1 target price last week, Ariston Top flashed a top prediction on Tuesday this week, prompting another round of profit-taking on part of the position. The remaining core position was stopped out. This is A doji extending the trend a setup where this occurs relatively often (see last week’s weekly note), because the setup itself is also a measured-move target pattern.”
...
USDMXN, understanding that price can chart a perfect course on its own, I draw my lines only at the most important levels and moments. The structure is unchanged.
“As with USDKRW (see the publications from the past 2 months): if you think you can make money just by drawing a simple line, you are being overly naive. Charts themselves can give you nothing. The outstanding moves that truly play out, and price movements that provide a sound basis for entry and exit, must be validated by all three systems (fundamentals, price action, and cross-asset relative value and capital flows).”
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
USDCAD (daily chart, as of 261011)
USDBRL (daily chart, as of 261011)
USDCAD, as expected, price fell after T1 took profits and closed out most of the position, The reason for not closing everything here is that no new setup has formed and price remains within the ascending channel, so another attempt to move higher is expected.
“Three things made the price action look unattractive here: 1/ an Ariston Top top prediction was triggered; 2/ the T1 target price was reached; 3/ price made a new high without momentum confirmation, creating a divergence. I don’t like unattractive setups, so I closed out most of the position here, with the remainder closed out passively by the stop.”
...
USDBRL, likewise, the channel remains unchanged, and the Stop will not be moved:
“10 month 4 is the first round of the election, 10 month 25 is the possible second round, and the fiscal policy that follows is a key driver of the exchange rate. After the first round in 2014 and 2022, USDBRL fell, but fully reversed before the second round; in 2018, the real reached its strongest level on the Friday before the second round. So the first round can cause large exchange-rate swings, but they may not last; the market can turn quickly, and we must be ready to turn as well, positioning ourselves on the side of the winner.”
...
AUDNZD, last week’s divergence signal has been confirmed, and the daily chart has now fallen into a downtrend channel:
AUDNZD(Daily chart, as of 261018)
“1/ Breman and Bullock have made their views clear. 2/ New Zealand QSBO points to a sustained economic recovery; meanwhile, Australia’s consumer confidence index fell 4.7% month over month in 10, with broad-based weakness. 3/ NZD non-commercial futures net long positions indicate that the market has begun to unwind its previous bearish positioning. Given that AUD/NZD has reached its upside extension target (T3), and momentum is diverging from price action, I am considering switching the AUD/NZD position from long to short. 9 month 22 may mark a top. This reversal trade is an early position in the price-discovery process. As price breaks below the gold line levels one by one, we will have algorithmic support; a decisive break below the confirmation level above 1.20 would confirm the possibility of a larger-cycle reversal.”
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; the gold-edged dots are moving toward the upper right (as of 261018).
EURCHF (daily chart, as of 261018)
EURCHF, the decline continued as expected. Some readers asked why I didn’t trade this. The main reason is that I noticed it somewhat late; it was not previously within the scope of the systematic portfolio, so coming in later makes it difficult to manage the position well.
“1/ An Ariston Top top prediction was issued; 2/ price then entered a downtrend channel; 3/ the second leg made a new high within the downtrend channel, was precisely turned back by the upper channel boundary, and showed a divergence between price and momentum. The divergence was followed by a large bearish candle; now we are waiting for follow-through from the displacement.”
Six. Mainland China Trading Positioning
CN Baskets 5D% (as of 261018)
Yellow Wine Baskets (daily chart, as of 261018): after the bullish PT trigger on Monday, a sharp decline followed
Interested readers can subscribe on Asian Chart (https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs）找到完整内地篮子的交易结构细节，自上而下的内地200+个篮子的交易监控全量更新在“ARI’S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN）” column.Use this handbook to develop your own well-grounded approach to when to enter and exit, so you can stand with the trend rather than fight it.
Index structure updates are provided here.
Shanghai Composite (daily chart, as of 261018): in a downtrend channel and has not yet formed an Ariston Bottom (as of now)
Shenzhen Component (daily chart, as of 261018): in a downtrend channel and has not yet formed an Ariston Bottom (as of now)
Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are in downtrend channels, with bearish structures.Both have now reached the structural T1 bearish target price; watch to see whether prices stall here.Those going long in the mainland market should take note.Wait for a bullish structure to emerge(if one appears, I’ll let everyone know right away),rather than blindly trying to call the bottom.。
Sharing a post from Asian Chart Planet with everyone:
My portfolio spans multiple markets. That means I go where there are worthwhile opportunities, and if there aren’t any, I don’t even look (there’s no point in putting in the effort).I firmly refuse to do the wrong thing in the wrong place at the wrong time. I don’t trade against the trend or try to stop a tank with my bare hands.When the indices are in downtrend channels, I won’t post much, and you shouldn’t keep taking action either (it’s pointless, and you’re more likely to lose more the harder you try;Most retail investors tend to trade frequently in a downtrend channel after a rise, until they are exhausted from all that activity, have lost nearly everything, and have no appetite left. Then, when the market finally enters a genuine uptrend, they become numb and fail to act—or are unable to act—until others have ridden another rally. When prices fall, they act rashly when they shouldn’t, and the cycle repeats...），We dance when the market dances, and rest when the market rests. I’ve always told my traders that the best way to picture this is as a time-zone problem: if you’re out of sync, you’ll stay out of sync, and it will be uncomfortable.Learn to act at the right time and sleep at the right time, and you’ll feel much more comfortable. Someone living on New York time in Beijing will inevitably feel worse than someone living on Beijing time there. You need to adjust your body clock to match the market’s.
CSI 2000 (daily chart, as of 261018) is likewise in a downtrend channel
CSI 500 (daily chart, as of 261018) is likewise in a downtrend channel
The index structures are broadly consistent. CSI 2000 and CSI 500 are also both currently in downtrend channels and at the T1 target price for their bearish structures.
Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray mixed positioning; the gold-edged dots are moving toward the upper right (as of 261018).
Red is widespread. Often, what you think is a bottom-up problem is fundamentally a top-down one.Frequently trading in a poor environment inevitably results in a low win rate and low reward-to-risk ratio.This has little to do with exactly whom you buy or what strategy you use. It makes no difference whether the holding is called A or B, because fundamentally they share the same risk exposure.
Have a clear basis for when to step back and when to act. Rest when it is time to rest; act when it is time to act.
Seven. Positioning in metal trades
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 261018)
Gold Basket (daily chart, as of 261018)
Gold is in a downtrend channel, but remains in a bullish structure (and continues to be supported by the white uptrend line we drew earlier). Gold’s bullish case needs to be viewed alongside the bearish case for silver. In other words, it also becomes clearer when considered alongside the trade logic for Small Yellow and Small E among alternative assets.
This is a rather interesting phenomenon:in both markets, a trade setup has emerged in which the spread between liquidity proxies and risk proxies is widening.Simply put, over the past two weeks of trading, gold and Small Yellow, which at the macro level are more directly affected by monetary characteristics and liquidity, have both consistently outperformed silver and Small E, which have stronger risk characteristics.。
...
The mainland China Gold Basket is also in a downtrend channel and has a bearish structure.Often, the Basket trend in the stock market is smoother and clearer than the trend in the underlying commodity itself.
...
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 261018)
Gold/silver ratio (daily chart, as of 261018)
“As we said last week, silver remains relatively weak compared with gold. So, even as gold’s structure has shifted to favor the bulls, silver remains in bearish territory...The gold/silver ratio, an indicator of risk appetite for precious metals, remains under pressure and was hovering near the bottom of its range at the close of trading this week. This is the key reason silver is structurally weaker than gold.Without confirmation from silver and support from sentiment, gold’s move is also unlikely to gain real traction.To some extent, you could also say that gold’s bullish structure is supported by liquidity factors (see the macro trade positioning section of the weekly report for details). This is also why gold, with its monetary characteristics, is outperforming silver.。”
...
Since we went short, silver has fallen by more than ~10%+ and continues to move within the descending channel as expected. Once the price action turned bearish within the channel, this was a natural development. Meanwhile, the silver/gold ratio has also weakened as expected, alongside a decline in precious-metal prices—as discussed previously, without confirmation from silver and support from sentiment, it is difficult for gold to sustain a move.Pay attention to price structure, and also to cross-asset confirmation. This is key to macro trading.
NMX Platinum (daily chart, as of 261018)
NMXPalladium (daily chart, as of 261018)
Palladium is the weakest of the precious metals; see our discussion in an earlier weekly report. Given the number of new readers recently, I want to reiterate my definition of a leader. A leader is a micro-level asset among assets driven by similar logic that leads in the corresponding direction in terms of 1/ volatility, and 2/ the timing of structural shifts.
Simply put, if the precious-metals sector as a whole is in an uptrend (an ascending channel), the asset that first shifts from a bearish to a bullish structure, or from a descending to an ascending channel, and leads in the amplitude of structural moves as the trend unfolds, is the leader of the advance. Conversely, it is the leader of the decline.
Palladium has clearly been the leader of the decline in this round of selling, and this week, following the unusual activity we detected last week, that leader triggered an Ariston Bottom signal during Thursday’s trading. This is a potential signal that it may likewise be “leading” the end of the decline.
Next week, watch: 1/ whether palladium can break out of its bearish PT structure and turn bullish, and 2/ whether other precious-metal trades—especially the gold-silver ratio—will follow suit in seeking a bottom. These are the most important signals for anyone looking to trade precious metals.
“This is a weak bottom, because lower highs and lower lows have already appeared at the fractal level. Price will only enter a pause in the decline first; there will not be an immediate right-side setup.”
However, given that this is a weak bottom, at least wait for the right-side setup to enter an Ariston ascending channel. There is no need to rush in early; this is better suited to closing out short positions.
...
CMXCopper (daily chart, as of 261018)
Copper: price continues to rise, while momentum continues to weaken. The top signal issued by our system on 26.09.22 still marks the highest point of this rally.We remain short.
Eight. Positioning in alternative-asset trades
Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 261018)
Little E (daily chart, as of 261018)
Little Yellow issued an Ariston Top forecast signal on 10.02, and that candle still marks the high to date. At the time, we took profits on part of our long position; we are holding the rest and waiting to exit passively...
Meanwhile, Little E turned short after entering a descending channel, and its Ariston Top forecast signal on 09.22 effectively marked the high of this rally.
The divergence between the two in terms of structure continues:
“If you’re wondering why I remain long Little Yellow but have reversed to short Little E, I think you should understand my actions after seeing the chart above...
In the weekly report two weeks ago, I included a relative-price chart of Little Yellow and Little E because their ratio’s descending channel had ended and shifted into an ascending channel, while volatility had also compressed. This may seem hard to understand if you are unfamiliar with this market, but if you have traded it for many years, you should know that these two do not always move together—or, more precisely, periods when their ratio is stable are rare, and a stable ratio is often followed by a sharp widening of the price spread.
Two days after 10.04, I want to reiterate that the key level was broken and volatility expanded. We are currently long this pair (long Little Yellow/short Little E), with the stop placed at the low of the breakout day.”
Little Yellow/Little E (daily chart, as of 261018)
During the week, the Little Yellow/Little E pair trade reached its T1 target price, while the momentum end-of-bar signal officially turned positive.—Positive momentum has increased the probability of reaching the T2 target price and the sustainability of this pair trade (including the sustainability of the swing itself and the possibility of a subsequent second entry in this direction). Please monitor it yourself.
Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations of your region and allocate personal assets only within the scope of applicable regulations. This content is intended only for users in certain special overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities
Agricultural commodities Basket (daily chart, as of 261018)
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 261018)
The agricultural commodities Basket turned bearish and momentum returned to a marked state; the second leg was rejected. The high from the first long entry (see the red arrow on the chart) remains the highest price so far. Given that it is still in an upward channel, if it returns to a bullish structure before a decisive breakdown, the position will continue to be held, although the previous high is probably now difficult to surpass.
...
Cocoa: still holding the second-round long position. The outlook has improved.
“After the previous round of long and short positions, the planned price was triggered, and a second long entry was executed. The stop was placed below the low on the trading day when unusual activity was detected (the entry point of the new capital; failure to hold here would mean the new market maker lacks strength).”
...
Coffee (daily chart, as of 261018)
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 261018)
During Friday’s trading, a minor unusual activity was detected in coffee; the long SL was placed below Thursday’s low.
...
Soybeans have entered a downward channel; holding a short position. The short SL was placed above Thursday’s high.
...
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 261018)
Sugar Basket (daily chart, as of 261018)
Sugar momentum continues to make new highs; continue moving the take-profit level higher.
...
The mainland sugar Basket did not follow through on the second upward move, in connection with market risk. As planned, the new position was closed out.
Corn (daily chart, as of 261018)
Wheat (daily chart, as of 261018)
Corn is largely unchanged; structurally, the take-profit level has been moved slightly lower:
“After entering the Ariston Channel’s downward channel, the decline continued to intensify sharply, and it has now retraced 50%+ of the gains since the low...
The channel is very smooth, but trade execution has encountered some friction. During the week, the automatic take-profit on the position was triggered by a false breakout (this happens from time to time, and no filter can avoid it one hundred percent). However, the structure is unchanged, so a short position was opened again on Friday, followed by a further extension of the decline...”
The decline was mainly because the U.S. supply figures released by USDA were higher than expected, with yield data unexpectedly high (the U.S. corn yield was raised by 2.7 bushels per acre from 9, the largest 9-to-10 yield increase since 2005. The yield increase of 11 bushels per acre in Nebraska alone lifted the national yield by 1.2 bushels per acre and added 1.06 hundred million bushels to production). Higher beginning stocks, combined with a larger harvest, were clearly not the narrative the bulls were hoping for. This is also an example of news following price: many people may already have known this when they turned bearish near the top, or when prices shifted from rising into Ariston’s downward channel. Price determines the news, not the other way around...”
...
Wheat was similar: after reopening the short, prices continued to fall, and the stop was moved to SL above breakeven. Both corn and wheat were trades that were closed midway because of the structure, then
reopened. This is very important.
A common problem for most traders early on is that after being stopped out of a position in a particular direction, they often become afraid to re-enter—but this is essential, because The structure is objective. Your position and your profit or loss have nothing to do with the market. What you need to avoid is failing to put yourself in the position you should be in at a particular time because you fear failure.
...
Sold too soon? Just buy it back. In fact, there is no such thing as selling too soon. As long as your decision was genuinely based on sound reasons for entering and exiting, you just need to do four things:
Execute decisively.
LE (daily chart, as of 261018)
09.03 detected unusual activity. Last week it detected a second wave of buying by a fund group, breaking out of the previous narrow consolidation range; the advance continued this week. The stop was moved further up, to below this week’s trading low.
Like corn and wheat, this was also a re-entry trade after being stopped out midway, Keep understanding “you do not need to fear re-entering”; getting yourself into the right position matters more than anything.
...
Egg Index (daily chart, as of 261018)
...
For more mainland China instruments, see 《ARI'S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK (COMMODITY)》. I won’t repeat them here; be sure to use it alongside this!
Ten. Oil and Natural Gas
BRN(Daily chart, as of 261018)
HO (daily chart, as of 261018)
Brent broke above the upper boundary of the structure during the week, and volatility expanded as expected on Friday. It is still too early to tell whether momentum is diverging from price; since the rise has yet to show a stalling bar, next week should provide a fairly clear answer.
In addition, geopolitical risks may rise as the midterm elections approach, which is also one reason the structure remains upward.
...
HO has begun to decouple from BRN’s movement. Setting fundamentals aside, the price picture is relatively simple: it has entered a downward channel and is below the white line, so the risk/reward is poor. Bulls should respond flexibly to a downward reversal with a tight stop.
Move the stop up; a break below Friday’s trading low will turn the position short.
...
NG (daily chart, as of 261018)
Currently CTA has turned bullish on U.S. natural gas (neutral last week, and still short as recently as a month ago), while NG net positioning is near a five-year low...
The issue is that it remains within a rectangle pattern. For the risk-reward to really open up, the price needs to break through the yellow line. Below that, it is range-bound; keep an eye on it yourself.
...
(End of document)
Eleven. Some Images
Outsized outflows
Diminished retail activity
Selling of Tech reached its highest notional value since June
I’m grateful for your kind regard, but I’m not important, and I have no intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep my head down and work quietly. The content on our Planet is for our internal community, and we try not to share it externally. Thank you all. I’m grateful to everyone.
The U.S. market, A/HK shares, and commodities Planets to use together, Only sign up if you really need them I know everyone wants to show their support, but don’t waste money or spend it recklessly.
U.S. market:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies
A/HK shares:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies
Commodities: https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies
Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
Note: All content on the Planet is shared for reference only. Reading its content does not make the recipient our client, nor does it constitute an invitation to anyone to sell or buy securities or other investment products, or a basis for trading. Markets involve risks, and investing requires caution. All information and opinions on this Planet do not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, make independent decisions, and assume full responsibility. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any losses arising from the use of content on this Planet. The relevant data may be delayed or inaccurate, and we accept no legal liability for the completeness or accuracy of the information.
Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.
