March eighth, two thousand twenty-six (260302-260308)
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*Our posts have recently been deleted frequently by the platform, so we’ll gradually replace some sensitive terms. Starting with this article, we’ll refer to B**T*C as “Little Yellow.”
Note! We’ve explained many of these points once and won’t explain them a second time!!! Be sure to review previous Weekly Wraps on your own!!! This is essential!
In the new weekly publication, we have made the following main changes:
1) We have reordered the major assets based on stronger logical connections and explained their mutually confirming interactions more clearly, giving readers a comprehensive picture to help them find anchors across assets... The process of seeking certainty is, in essence, the process of finding an anchor for pricing...; 2) We have strengthened our detailed analysis of the week’s developments, laying the groundwork for expectations over longer cycles. Alongside supporting portfolio allocation, this also offers readers some guidance for medium- and short-term decisions... After all, every long-term decision is just a series of rolling short-term decisions...; 3) We have reduced coverage of noisy asset classes. We will no longer provide ongoing weekly updates on positions we have exited or assets with no major fundamental changes (consistent with what we said the previous week),so they don’t take up too much space. Instead, we will add coverage of assets that are awaiting entry... After all, what matters in practice for decision-making is what is happening now and what lies ahead. On this point, we need everyone to work with us and review past content on their own; we won’t be giving everyone a history lesson every week... But reviewing the past is necessary and absolutely essential. Before reading, please also read the Planet updates for the current week or relevant past trading days. 4) The content will gradually incorporate our own understanding of the worlds of investing and trading, and systematically explain our ideas and principles. This is just one perspective, offered to spark further thought and for reference only; please excuse any shortcomings.
Starting from 251109, the weekly publication has been completely revamped. For the historical framework and content, see 《WEEKLY WRAP 251026》 and earlier posts.
A relatively easy and enjoyable week(Although our precious-metals positions in gold, silver, and platinum were stopped out, the outcome for our oil-shipping position was still gratifying.)，The only reason things went this well is that we did the right things several weeks and months ago and have stuck with them ever since. Yesterday’s resolve has allowed us, amid today’s confusion and chaos, to ignore the noise from outside.
There is only one thing left to do: protect our unrealized gains and close out wherever we feel satisfied.
At the profit-taking stage, there is no right or wrong; the only question is whether you are satisfied. This is what we have always said Buy points matter more than sell points because The reason is that knowing how to sell does not make you a master, since there are many mechanical tools available to help you sell. Knowing how to buy is what makes you a master, because there is only one way to sit back and calmly watch the fluctuations: buy before the move begins.
The entry point determines the size of your margin of safety, whether you can hold on through subsequent fluctuations and noisy news, your mindset while holding a position, your mental and even physical health, and ultimately the way you view your profits. When you have a clear basis for entering and exiting, profits can naturally appear to you as the result of taking on risk. Treating them as an outcome is a remedy for frequent trading and blind action in trading psychology.
Decisions must be separated from actions, and actions must be separated from outcomes. This is my three-part framework, which I offer to everyone.
One, US Dollar Index and Renminbi
Chart: US Dollar Index (four-hour chart, as of 260308)
Just look at the chart on the Planet for the US Dollar Index's path; it will be very clear. There are two layers of support here, and the likelihood of breaking below 98.8 is very small. This also means that the dollar will continue to weigh on gold (see Notes260305, “Gold, the Dollar, and Crude Oil: the 4-5-Week Time Window”).For the reasons why the dollar is unlikely to keep falling from here, see last week’s issue.
Chart: USDCNH (daily chart, as of 260308)
Anyone who has not read the views on the USDCNH section of “WEEKLY WRAP 260301” should go back and read it in full. We remain optimistic about renminbi appreciation, but things may not look as favorable here for those expecting the same steep trajectory to continue as over nearly the past year.In fact, the publication timing of last week’s weekly issue marked a turning low (the red circle indicated by the arrow in the chart above).
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Also, regarding the possibility that oil prices will lead the Fed to raise rates, a rate hike is unlikely, but expectations of further rate cuts before the third quarter are definitely off the table. This will also be a fundamental factor making it difficult for the dollar to break below support.
Two, European Defense Spending
“WEEKLY WRAP 260104” discussed LMT, a European defense representative we went long on at the same time
(As of 25, LMT’s exposure to EU defense spending accounted for 10%+ of revenue),
Chart: LMT (daily chart, as of 260308)
The first round of long positions ran through 2.20/26, with a gain of + to 30%.
As the world becomes more dangerous, demand for defense equipment is bound to keep rising.
Price has moved back above 670, triggering another long entry; the position has been re-entered with the stop-loss set above 640.
Three, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD,
This section Be sure to read this through《WEEKLY WRAP 260208》, which contains the detailed information and the rationale for the fundamental-positioning thesis。
It is always the three-system approach! Decisions are made only when all three systems—fundamentals, flows and relative value, and technical analysis—align. We don’t repeat this in every weekly edition simply to avoid repetition, but you must not look only at the technical charts; go back and examine the reasons. Charts are only the result!!!
Chart: EURGBP (daily chart, as of 260308)
The breakout bet failed, and we exited with a stop-loss.This is more of a euro problem. Europe’s dependence on energy imports is far greater than America’s, and expectations for GDP have been revised down as the oil-price shock feeds through. The BoE/ECB policy divergence has become secondary. Against this backdrop, GBP is showing slightly greater resilience.
Chart: USDGBP (daily chart, as of 260308)
USDGBP: unrealized profits on the long position continue to grow, and we are moving the take-profit level higher.
Note for new readers: this trade was a failed breakout to the downside. This is one of our preferred entry patterns because, right from the start, the stop-loss level is easy to set and very clear, making it beginner-friendly.
Four, USD/JPY, Nikkei futures
Chart: USDJPY (daily chart, as of 260308)
Our view from two weeks ago remains unchanged: we have closed the position and have not continued trading here. Although the outlook is quite clear... this is not the optimal scenario because it is not extreme enough to develop into a strong trend... The picture in foreign exchange is more complicated. A gradual rise is the base case, but USDJPY has already moved back toward intervention risk, which is also increasing. This will constrain further gains in the short term. The two blue lines on the chart have temporarily put us off the yen...
Those who chased long positions at the blue-line boundary probably aren’t feeling too good now.
Chart: Nikkei futures (daily chart, as of 260308)
We didn’t trade this ourselves; the reasons are detailed in an earlier weekly edition. For those holding positions, the take-profit level we gave last week, around 56680, has been hit, locking in unrealized gains. Price has now fallen back to the blue line, where it will consolidate.
Five, U.S. equities
Chart: SPX (daily chart, as of 260308)
Based on the 100 bars in the previous top-like consolidation, the widening of the trading range in the topping zone is most likely to occur in March.
The daily downtrend has now persisted for 4 bars, and price has also fallen back to the key blue-line level at 6717, A break below here would lead to a test of the annual moving average, where support should be found only near 6580.
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Monitor it yourself.
Six, European markets (UK100, GER40)
Chart: UK100 (daily chart, through 260308) (the model displays the LONG ONLY portion only)
Follow the rules strictly: the position was again exited when the take-profit price was triggered. European equities as a whole are far more dependent on energy imports than the U.S. (as discussed above), so cyclical stocks will face substantial price cuts. Risk aversion is driving markets in the short term. While higher defense spending is a positive, it cannot offset the oil-price shock.At present, there are no fundamentals for an independent rebound. European markets will move in tandem with U.S. equities, but are more fragile.
UK100, when an ascending trendline makes a second attempt at the top-side resistance, it often succeeds.or a third attempt... but either way, both price space and time are getting increasingly compressed.The final episode should air before March 2026.
Chart: GER40 (daily chart, through 260308) (the model displays the LONG ONLY portion only)
Likewise, GER and UK look like two different bets, but in fact they have the same risk exposure and price-response mechanism.
GER40 has been coiling inside this range for far too long. Compression at this scale usually resolves with a meaningful breakout.
Six, silver and platinum
For the overall assessment, see “WEEKLY WRAP 260104” and the related long-form Notes published previously.
Chart: CMX silver (4-hour chart, through 260308)
Facing a correction; currently flat. For now, going long again would require at least a close above 87.88.
Chart: a take-profit trigger on the lower timeframe prompted an exit; currently flat
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Chart: CMX silver (daily chart, through 260308)
The daily position recorded its largest single-trade net loss since 3 month last year and was stopped out. This was an expected outcome because the trend state has actually remained dormant since 2.11, without turning upward along with the price itself but the rules were still followed decisively.
Here, I’ll also address the question about trend and dormant states:The state itself is not directly linked to whether execution is long or short. We mainly use it as a reference for position sizing. If the trend state and execution are aligned, we use the standard position size. If execution gives a long or short signal while the trend state is dormant (shown as 0 in the Star Planet dashboard), the position size will be no more than 1/2 units. If the trend state and execution direction are opposed, we choose not to open a position, or use no more than 1/10 units for an initial test position.
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The two are independent of each other; only because they are independent can they be used in combination.
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Chart: SLV (daily chart, as of 260308)
SLV, last year we established starter positions against the trend at the three orange circles; after that, when 25.11.25 turned from red to blue, we added to build a trend position. A few weeks ago and on day 17, we twice triggered the 2x target price (see the previous two weekly reports), and continued by establishing positions on both occasions (the two orange circles on the 66.42 horizontal line on the right). ...
If the price returns to near the 2x target, we will continue to establish a partial position.
For more details, seeView notethis post:
Chart: post about re-establishing an allocation position near 20 or 50 dma (depending on the micro-state of each instrument)
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Platinum:
Chart: NMX platinum (daily chart, as of 260308)
Likewise, This week saw the largest single-trade net loss since 25 year 4 month; the position was stopped out To go long again, the price needs to move back above 2450.
Seven. Gold
Chart: CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260308)
Gold's dormant state has lasted 22 trading days; the model has remained flat since exiting on 26 year 1 month 30 day. ...
Additionally, from a capital flows perspective:
Chart: CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260308)
From a capital flows perspective, institutional funds exited on 3 month 5 day; leveraged funds also exited that day. This was the shortest period of leveraged positioning since 23 year 5 month (nearly two years), and we can expect it to have caught many investors off guard.
Chart: GDX (daily chart, as of 260308)
The GDX trading position exited flat near breakeven. We remain very bullish on Miners, but this part will likewise have to wait until the price returns to around 106.We have our own views, but we also respect the market—and its pricing outcome—even more.
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Eight. Copper and aluminum
For the answer to when we will end our industrial metals bets, see “WEEKLY WRAP 251221”
Chart: copper-gold ratio overlaid with copper prices (monthly chart, as of 260308)
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Chart: Shanghai copper (daily chart, as of 260308) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY portion)
Likewise, Copper, gold, silver, and platinum are all in a silent trend state, but with execution signals turning bullish; this time, the situation is a great example of what happens in the real world.All three long trades failed, and we exited with tight stop-losses.Following the trend really matters; acting against it is not very comfortable.But we still followed through decisively.
Chart: FCX (daily chart, as of 260308)
The price pulled back from resistance, triggering a stop-loss exit.The stop-loss helped us avoid the panic selloff that followed around 10%.
Always use stop-loss protection，它真的会保护你。
Chart: Global inflation proxy for industrial metals (weekly chart, as of 260308)
New highs—the industrial metals trade is not over.
Note: This was covered in more detail in the Planet Strategy Notes earlier; just refer back to them for specifics.
Nine. Little Yellow and its friends
Chart: Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260308) (the model only displays the SHORT ONLY portion)
It successively broke through our 1x target (74.5k) and 2x target (65k); near 60k, the position management system issued a signal to reduce the short position(the orange-circled B point on the chart)(B in a short state and S in a long state are signals to reduce positions!). We have already taken profits and reduced the position here; we continue to hold the remaining short position and wait for an automatic exit.
Since taking profits, Little Yellow has found precise support between our 1x and 2x target levels and has traded in a narrow range to this day,
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The hourly model works better at this level because it captures smaller swings back and forth on its own:
Chart: Little Yellow (hourly chart, as of 260301) (the model only displays the SHORT ONLY portion)
If you compare the hourly and daily charts, you will notice a very interesting phenomenon: Little Yellow’s structure remains highly aligned across these timeframes. Examples include the position-reduction signal at the piercing level, and the inside-bar reversals appearing at almost the same levels on the hourly and daily charts. This is the result of extensive algorithmic participation in the market.
And, The reason inside bars are important as reversal signals at the edges is, in fact, also a theoretical result at the level of market feel:
The inside bars you see on each time frame are each a consolidation with a narrowing range on the corresponding lower time frame, or on a time frame below that;a consolidation with a narrowing range;This is somewhat like a multidimensional world. Market feel means that when you see a weekly or daily candlestick, you can see through it and also visualize how it looks on the hourly or even minute chart: dozens of lower-time-frame bars made up of dozens of even smaller bars... and behind each bar are dozens of lower-time-frame bars, sampled into one.
In other words, being able to see the hundreds of bars behind a single bar—that is market feel.
This is very important.
Ten. The Chinese Market
I won’t include much more here about trends. We’ve already decided to update the three-time-frame asset-state data daily, so everyone can download the latest corresponding data tables each day from our community. Here I’ll share some data that you don’t usually get to see.。Individual-stock data for the mainland market is also now being updated daily on Ganglong. Anyone interested can subscribe via this link (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies）
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The weekly newsletter “WEEKLY WRAP 260222” answers many key questions! If you haven’t read it, be sure to do so before coming back.
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The most important thing this week is Hang Seng TECH:
Chart: Hang Seng TECH (daily chart, as of 260308)
Our own forecasting model is showing a bottom signal here, and we will try to go long here, with the stop-loss placed below the low on the 3.4th, Note that this trade is extremely risky! It is a countertrend reversal trade!
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As for the forecasting model, you should have seen it in our charts quite some time ago, and some people have messaged me to ask about it. But I haven’t mentioned or discussed it, for a simple reason: forecasting the market itself is a very poor idea. Anyone with less than 10 years of trading experience should not casually try to predict market reversals.
We don’t want to think we’re smarter than the market, but we have to acknowledge that if the prediction succeeds, the return from reversing at an extreme on the left side can also be very high. With a tight stop-loss as a safeguard, this becomes a reversal bet with controlled risk.
Chart: Forecasting model win rate (real-time + no repainting) since 2018 year 1 month 1 day
The chart above shows the forecasting model’s win rate on Hang Seng TECH since 18 year 1 month 1 day, The win rate for predicting bottoms is higher than for predicting tops. In fact, this is not an isolated case; it is true for the vast majority of instruments.
Simply put, Based on the actual data-test results, the frenzy when prices keep making new highs is far more difficult to predict than the fear when prices keep making new lows. That is why one should not be quick to call a top.
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Eleven. The South Korean market
Chart: Korean index/Indian index (daily chart, as of 260308)
After the red circle, the index made a new high, then reversed precisely at the yellow line.
Chart: Korean index/Indian index (weekly chart, as of 260308)
Review it yourself.
Chart: The highest point at the top signals a decline
Chart: Signals a rebound from daily support at 50
Chart: KOSDAQ (daily chart, as of 260308)
The day after the post, it opened above the 50 daily line and rebounded precisely.
Twelve. Oil (the oil and gas allocation position and the 200 DMA for oil prices) and oil and gas/shipping stocks
Trump’s post on Friday, saying “No negotiations, only unconditional surrender,” once again dampened risk appetite and pushed oil prices higher, This increases the likelihood of a prolonged war of attrition. The Iranian regime has little incentive to lay down its arms, but a strong incentive to maximize the economic damage by driving up energy prices.
An article published by FT on Friday said that the Gulf Cooperation Council had announced it might have to reassess its international investment decisions and commitments because of budget constraints caused by the war; Qatar announced that it would not restart LNG production unless hostilities ended; and Kuwait announced a reduction in oil production.
All these actions look more like an attempt to use economic leverage to persuade the belligerents to return to the negotiating table.
In other words, oil prices are a weapon, not an outcome. Once the objective is achieved, the tool will be discarded immediately.
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In any case, there is no clear answer as to how long high oil prices will last, but the market continues to price in potential permanent economic damage. Therefore, It can be expected that global risk assets will not see a meaningful new rally before oil prices retreat from their high range—even gold and silver (silver has already become a risk asset to some extent).
Chart: WTI (daily chart, as of 260308) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY portion)
Above the annual moving average and entering an uptrend structure;Since Planet entered the long position, the price is up by approximately 55%, another successful bet this year.
Continue holding. All positions here are being switched to small-timeframe trading positions:
Chart: WTI (four-hour chart, as of 260308) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY portion)
The next target is 97.53; if the price pulls back to T1, I’ll proactively close part of the position. A break below 83.92 would trigger an exit from the trading position.
Chart: BRENT (four-hour chart, as of 260308) (the model displays only the LONG ONLY portion)
Brent crude reversed precisely at the target of 94.60; a break below 87.61 would trigger an exit from the trading position.
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A few core holdings:
Chart: OIH (daily chart, as of 260308)
Exited to take profits, +~36%. One successful bet this year.
Chart: XES (daily chart, as of 260308)
Exited to take profits, +~30%. One successful bet this year.
Chart: XLE (daily chart, as of 260308)
Still holding; a break below 54.9 would trigger an exit to take profits...
More:
Oil and gas and shipping stocks (positions were mainly taken through domestic instruments on Ganglong Planet):
Chart: post on Ganglong synchronized on 1 month 7 day
The rationale for the shipping and oil-and-gas bets was the same: the prices had reached the right levels.
At the time, the filtered list on 250 dma included Nanyang Oil and COSCO Shipping Energy, and the larger position went to COSCO Shipping Energy:
Chart: COSCO Shipping Energy (daily chart, as of 260308)
Bought at the open on the 8th and still holding; 33 bars, +~85%;
The take-profit level has been moved higher again and is currently above 18.21...
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Those who managed it can review their own trades; those who didn’t needn’t worry—there will be plenty of opportunities.
Chart: Enjoying the gains (quietly)https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies
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Finally, although we remain bearish on oil prices over the long term, after the event-driven shock subsides, prices are unlikely to return to their previous bottom-of-range trading zone. Our current expectation is that a bottom will form around 5 dollars higher, because even if short-term pressure eases, the US-Iran episode has another important long-term consequence: it has highlighted structural vulnerabilities. Countries that have consistently built strategic reserves (such as China) look remarkably prescient in times of tension, while others may respond by beginning to follow suit.
In practice, this kind of inventory build-up will act more like incremental demand: providing persistent buying on pullbacks, showing a greater willingness to pay a premium for supply security, and ultimately creating a higher floor for the price range than we expected before the Strait shutdown.
Thirteen, EEM (1x target price)
Chart: EEM (weekly chart, as of 260308)
Long position closed, +~35%.
Fourteen. Uranium
Chart: URA (daily chart, as of 260308) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY section)
The uranium trade remains valid for the foreseeable future. For now, going long again requires URA to reclaim a level above 52.8.
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Fifteen. Brazil
As it enters the parabolic tail phase on the right side of the chart, we have converted it from a purely strategic allocation into a swing-trading position:
Chart: EWZ (daily chart, as of 260308) (the model shows only the LONG ONLY section)
The corresponding ETF allocation currently held (EWZ)has been closed out. Going long again requires the price to move back above 37.5.
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(End of document)
A quick plug: our companion planets for U.S. stocks, A-shares and Hong Kong, and commodities are continually being improved.
U.S. stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies(Xingzhi)
A-shares and Hong Kong:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies(Ganglong)
Commodities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies(Earth's Core)
Note: All content in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for their decisions.