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4 October 2026
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Zero. The logic behind the main theme & chartists who don't make money
1
Resource conglomerates vs. technology conglomerates
Resource conglomerates need an endless stream of geopolitical events to get a share of the pie in the new era led by technology conglomerates. In fact, the ongoing prevalence of wars is closely related to the increasingly polarized and concentrated distribution of technology gains among a small number of people. In other words, provided technology does not hit the pause button on second-order derivative growth sovereign states or interest groups far from the high-value-added segments of the technology value chain will continue to face higher geopolitical risk premiums and greater volatility. This is to be expected.
Since last year, I have been telling you that there are only two paths in the market that could and can become the main theme: one is technology and capital expenditure, and the other is commodities and resources on a global scale.This view is not based on an industry perspective, nor on the cyclical perspective many people talk about; it is about people. Essentially, it is a question of who is going to make money.It's right to follow the wealthy to make money, just as Munger said: you should fish where the fish are. You can't make money by following poor people all your life; only by following people who are doing well can you have a chance of doing well yourself. (Therefore, my advice to most friends on living a happy life is also very simple: find the person doing best within your sight, then hold on tight and never let go.)
Within the visible range, Humanity, as a collective, inevitably has relatively limited resources. This means that the speed at which Party A acquires resources will heavily influence Party B’s decision-making (the relevance of actions is the most fundamental assumption in game theory).People often focus on the endowed party, but the endowed party and the constrained party always act in tandem. You could also say that wherever there is an endowed party, there must be a corresponding constrained party. This is the fundamental logical reason why the market will always have at least two main themes running concurrently.
The endowed and constrained parties engage in a long-term stock game over the pool of discounted total returns in human society (the reason development itself is also treated as stock over the long term is that development is incorporated into the discount function). The endowed party engages in a short-term incremental game of its own (the direction in which liquidity flows), while the constrained party engages in a short-term stock game of its own (conflict and war).
...
2
The significance of price is this: They Know Something. This is why our abnormal-move column remains so highly effective today. As long as the market is a real market made up of people (and people are the sum of their social relations), this will always be effective.
No one can know what is happening everywhere, nor do they need to. In fact, for an individual, it is extremely difficult to figure out what is happening in one particular, highly specific field. Just ask yourself whether you could explain in depth within 3 minutes what industry you currently work in, how you make your money, and what important marginal events are unfolding. That will tell you just how difficult this is.
Chart analysts analyze the consensus behavior behind charts.Ian’s statement, “I’ve never met a rich chartist,” is correct in a sense, because if you analyze charts, you analyze nothing at all. Not just Ian—I have never seen a “chart” analyst make a lot of money either. I can tell you quite plainly: never. It’s like tracking a criminal’s shadow. Is the shadow evidence of the criminal’s movements? Yes, but if you only catch the shadow, you will never catch the criminal.
If you are set on making money through charts, you can—but you must get beyond the surface appearance of the “chart” as soon as possible. Drawing lines all over a chart is meaningless; it cannot make you money. What matters is the consensus behavior behind the chart, and how the behavior we see today (before buying or selling) affects behavior tomorrow (after buying or selling)—planning and anticipating, then carrying out the plan. It’s like reading my weekly newsletter: if all you see are charts and lines, you haven’t really understood it.
I. Positioning for macro trading
1
An extremely important horizontal level, US10Y A weekly-closing Failed Breakout on the weekly timeframe for 07 is developing here. Whether this forms a topping pattern is crucial to whether yields can find a new anchor.
US10Y(Weekly chart, as of 261004)
Friday’s employment data were significantly weaker than expected, but not bad. The headline number for job gains was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate edged up to around 4.2%, which is still very low historically. In addition, the increase in unemployment came from a rise in labor force participation. Against a backdrop of slow population growth, the picture is still acceptable even if job gains are modest.
Wages are particularly worth watching: wage growth actually slowed this month. Without strong wage growth, it is difficult to set off a classic inflation spiral of the kind seen in the 20s of the 70th century, where rising wages drive inflation, which in turn drives further wage increases.We are not seeing this mechanism at present. Workers do not seem to have much bargaining power. Many people say they are having difficulty finding jobs, and against this backdrop, they do not seem likely to get large pay increases either.
After the data were released, bonds rallied significantly and the entire yield curve shifted down, but then with news of the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia (which broke as oil prices reached our gold-line level)gave back all of those gains (interest rates and oil prices once again showed a strong correlation):
US10Y overlayBRN(Minute chart, as of 261004)
This is what I have been saying all along: it is price that drives the news, not the news that drives price. The news you see will only happen when it is supposed to. Behind the news are the actions of real people, and behind those actions are real financial interests. That’s it. This is not a simulation game, with randomly generated or occurring events. This is the real world.You can see all of this very clearly on our charts.
BRN (Daily chart, as of 261004)
This means that for yields to truly peak, one of two things may be needed: 1/ oil prices officially break below the golden line and enter a downtrend (fully resolving the issue in cross-asset terms), 2/ yields decouple from oil...
2
Over the past week, both Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams expressed opposition to a rate hike in 10:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2026/wil260929（Williams )
1/ 9 month 29 day, Williams said at the University at Buffalo in New York that after taking policy action in 9 month, “there is no need for urgency,” and that there was time to gather more information; if the economy evolves as expected, another rate hike could still be appropriate later this year.later in the year could still be appropriate.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm（Jefferson）
2/ 10 month 1 day, Jefferson said at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business that future policy adjustments should take account of data trends, the economic outlook and the balance of risks; “my colleagues and I will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time”—that is, it may take him and his colleagues more time to reach a judgment.
Both are among the Fed’s most senior policymakers, and the market has taken note. The expectation is for a possible rate hike of 25 basis points in 12 month, followed by two more hikes the following year.
3
Last week’s weekly note mentioned that “France’s main tension is its large deficit and the political difficulty of pushing through spending reforms, so the pressure is more likely to be concentrated in the government bond market.” Some readers messaged to ask whether using FR10Y/US10Y fails to describe Europe’s problems accurately. That is indeed the case: the France–U.S. spread can describe only the difference in problems between Europe and the U.S.; the France–Germany spread is generally used to assess Europe’s problems:
FR10Y-DE10Y(Daily chart, as of 261004)
For sovereign debt problems, a country can generally print money to buy debt, raise taxes, cut spending, or rely on growth to escape its predicament. But all of these options are constrained for France: it does not have independent monetary sovereignty and cannot print money on its own or have the European Central Bank buy all its debt; it is merely a member of the ECB system. France therefore does indeed face the possibility of defaulting and being unable to repay its debt... The debt problem is consequently very difficult to resolve, and it is reasonable for the market to demand a higher risk premium.
...
4
Macro Drivers (as of 261004)
Moves in macro-theme thesis-driven trades (as of 261004)
Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261004)
...
Chart: Real financial conditions (market pricing) overlaid with the precious metals, technology and alternative asset composites
Financial Conditions&Precious Composite&Tech Composite&Crypto Composite (as of 261004)
Having reached the previous low, it may find support.
5
Cross-asset return correlation matrix; the upper triangle shows the 21-day results and the lower triangle the 63-day results (as of 261004)
Equity, credit and Treasury volatility (as of 261004)
Exchange rate volatility and U.S. Treasury volatility (as of 261004)
Average pairwise correlations across asset classes over the past 1 months (as of 261004)
Trading correlations between precious metals and oil prices (as of 261004)
XLK、XLIAgainst the U.S. ten-year yield (as of 261004)
A-share High Beta vs Low Volatility (as of 261004)The fast line is below the slow line, indicating a risk-off state
U.S. High Beta vs Low Volatility (as of 261004)The fast line is above the slow line, indicating a risk-on state
Model of the dollar versus interest-rate differentials and oil prices (as of 261004)The dollar is undervalued relative to oil prices
The dollar and overseas equity markets (as of 261004)The dollar is overvalued relative to equities
II. Technology trade positioning
1
KOSPI(Weekly and daily charts, as of 261004)
The Korean index is still pinned precisely below the white horizontal line (none of my lines are drawn at random; they are all drawn deliberately. Some people's lines aren't worth much, while some people's lines are worth a lot). During this period, randomly reacting to various indicators, news, and intraday fluctuations would have done little besides further increasing the account's drawdown; it would have been hard to achieve a good outcome. Learn to act at key moments.
Furthermore, daily momentum details remain above the baseline, which means the outlook for subsequent price action still favors an upside breakout. Keep an eye on it.
...
SOXX(Daily chart, as of 261004)
U.S. session semiconductors have made a new high since the pullback, after SOXX entered the Ariston Channel uptrend and the weekly signal turned bullish; the unleveraged position is now +10%. People with short-term vision who focus on one or two individual bars will never be able to capture profits.I've said many times: an uptrend is an uptrend. It's not about me or about my saying that prices are going to rise or fall; the objective fact is simply that this is the case. My (your) job is just to state the facts (It should only be to state the facts).
The take-profit level has been moved to the base of the gap-up opening.
SOXX(Daily chart, as of 260910) Update after entering the uptrend
The gap-down day after entering the uptrend (in fact, if you go back and look now, you'll see that this was the day's low)
Not a single line I give you is drawn at random. What is meant by a key price is Positions where you can take a relatively small amount of risk in pursuit of a larger return while having a clear basis for when to enter and exit—or take on the same risk as others (those other “professional traders”) in pursuit of a larger return.There’s more to a position than just the risk-reward ratio. Many people learn a few terms and keep repeating them without really understanding them.
The risk-reward ratio matters, but it has no practical meaning on its own, because the ratio you expect has nothing to do with how the market will actually move. However well designed, it is mostly just a coin toss: it offers no edge and certainly no sustainability. My line is a comprehensive dividing line that combines the bias in the distribution of price movements, probability and payoff, and risk management.
I’m no stock-market guru, and there are no stock-market gurus in the market. The point I hope to convey to you is this:I also don’t want you to make becoming a stock-market guru your goal, because that is impossible。As market participants, all we can do is make every effort to find the key moments when the odds are most in our favor, and to enter and exit with a clear basis while protecting ourselves. Arrogance, low self-esteem, and a fixed mindset cannot do this. It takes rationality, objectivity, a growth mindset, and a degree of caution greater than anyone else’s.You shouldn’t be afraid of making mistakes, because they happen most of the time.
Whether it’s the weekly publication or a post, one good thing for you is that everything we publish is clearly archived and expresses a clear point of view. Most people can’t—and don’t dare to—do either of these things.
Essentially, this is a diary belonging to someone else that you can browse at will. So 1) you can test the validity of all our views; 2) you can see the complete thinking and actions behind every decision, from when it was first made to when we exited, and how the successful ones succeeded and the failed ones failed. We never shy away from failure. On the contrary, dealing with failure is our main job; 3) you can use the market as it actually unfolds to discard what we do poorly, take what suits you, and gradually build your own system. That is the process of accumulating real experience.
Your job should be to deal with failures and losses, because the things that are profitable will take care of themselves
2
Tech proxy 5D%
...
For more details, see “ARI’s WEEKLY CHARTBOOK(TECH)”
More bottom-up content, every week Chartbook Be sure to read it alongside this.The chart shows an instrument featured in last week’s Chartbook with a Bull Trigger (and unusual activity detected at Friday’s close). This week, as expected, it rose with an expansion in range and stalled precisely at the T1 target price.Not one of the lines I give you is drawn casually.
3
STAR 50 (weekly chart, as of 261004)
STAR 50 (daily chart, as of 261004)
STAR 50 reached the PT level of the weekly bearish setup (see the weekly chart above, where it was blocked precisely), closed lower before the holiday, and returned to the daily downtrend channel. After the bearish PT is triggered, we can once again take part in bottom-up divergence bets; an overall index-level bet has to wait until the channel breaks again.
STAR Semiconductor ETF (daily chart, as of 261004)
STAR Semiconductor ETF was closed out after its planned stop-loss price was triggered. Likewise, after the bearish PT is triggered, we can once again take part in bottom-up divergence bets; an overall index-level bet has to wait until the channel breaks again.
4
Tech Monitor mainland basket as an asset (daily chart, as of 261004)
Most are holding short positions, consistent with the fast and slow line results for the elastic proxy in the macro trading positioning section of Part One；For more content and daily updates, see the mainland China column (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies）。
5D% (as of 261004)
Perhaps pharmaceuticals are the low-hanging fruit among the average, median, and weakest-link effects.
Solder Paste Basket (daily chart, as of 261004)The upper boundary of the descending channel held firm, and losses widened after the daily Bear Trigger was activated
Electronic Fabric Basket (daily chart, as of 261004)The upper boundary of the descending channel held firm, and losses widened after the daily Bear Trigger was activated
Copper Link Basket (daily chart, as of 261004)The upper boundary of the descending channel held firm, and losses widened after the daily Bear Trigger was activated
AI Pharmaceuticals Basket (daily chart, as of 261004)
For more on mainland China trading baskets, see《ARI’s WEEEKLY CHARTBOOK (CN）》which provides weekly updates on the structural positioning of hundreds of baskets.
5
Whether or not you trade the markets in question, it is best to skim the Chartbook; it may prove helpful in unexpected ways.
III. Global Equity Positioning
1
Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261004)
Global Equity Thematic Trading: Notable Moves (Economic) (as of 261004)
Global Equity Thematic Trading: Notable Moves (Structure) (as of 261004)
2
ARGT(Daily chart, as of 261004)
Argentina (ARGT): Last week’s report noted that 1) had broken below its uptrend line, while 2) the latest economic data came in well below market expectations, with the main problems in domestic demand and credit assets.
This week, the decline continued to deepen and reached the T1 target price. I took profit on part of the position here, with the remainder exiting passively according to PT (PT moved to the high of the first short-bodied, long-wick bar within the trend).
NKD1!(Daily chart, as of 261004)
Last week, we noted that the Nikkei was supported by its uptrend line and had entered an ascending channel; gains widened further this week. Be sure to keep a close eye on the white uptrend line: a break below it would attract the attention of a great deal of capital.
...
EWZ(Daily chart, as of 261004)
The Brazil short position was closed at breakeven as planned and flipped. The fundamental picture is unchanged; the discussion from last week is still relevant here:
“The reason this is difficult to trade is related to Brazil’s increasingly complex election situation.Brazilian voters remain divided into two main camps. The polling gap is within the margin of error, but enthusiasm is lacking for both Lula and his challenger Flavio, while other candidates have little chance of catching up with them. This fatigue contrasts sharply with the strong engagement sparked by the severe recession in 2018, the anti-establishment wave after Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment, and the struggle over pandemic management and the survival of democracy in 2022.
This is reflected in market bets through similarly “balanced” pricing; in other words, prices are unlikely to establish a trend.Compared with Peru and Colombia, where recent elections have become more ideologically polarized and could determine the countries’ direction, Brazil’s basic structure is likely to persist regardless of who wins.
However, if Flávio wins, the bias toward upside will be greater, and rate cuts could reach 200 to 300 basis points. We are ready to revise our view at any time.” — 《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
IV. U.S. Equity Market Positioning
1
SPX(Daily chart, as of 261004)
Index odds are unfavorable. Holding long positions means there are bottom-up, divergent directions within the market structure that can be bet on; the downside channel means a broad-based rally is not to be expected. If possible, break things down and trade them individually.
...
IWM, continuing to close precisely on the white line, continuing to monitor small-cap performance as the key proxy for assessing recession risk. The gold line represents optimism, and the white line represents economic growth; a break below the white-line price support would put support in the purple box area. A further break below the purple box would confirm the recession narrative.
IWM (daily chart, as of 261004)
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》
2
MEME(Daily chart, as of 261004)
Move the take-profit point up to the base low.
3
Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261004)
Strong momentum above the green line; above the yellow line, we can take a shot. Below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market will tend toward random movement (as of 261004)
4
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
XLU(Daily chart, as of 261004)
The auction succeeded, the Bull Trigger was activated, and the Stop was placed below the swing low.
...
V. FX Market Trade Positioning
1
USDKRW(daily chart, as of 260927)
Short-long-short: understand the essence of swing trading. The decline continued to widen during the week, so the Stop was moved from the stop-loss point to the take-profit point.
2
USDSEK, unrealized profits continued to grow this week, precisely reaching the T1 target price. After reducing the position partially, the remaining position was passively stopped out. Move the stop up slightly to the doji (this setup is a trend-extension doji; don’t use it indiscriminately).
USDSEK(daily chart, as of 260927)
3
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》
Understand that price can trace out a perfect move on its own, 1 / I draw my lines only at the most critical moments and in the most critical places. This week, USDMXN’s gains continued to widen and precisely hit the T3 target level planned when the position was turned long. Here, I took profits on part of the position, while the remaining position was passively PT, moved to the consolidation area on the lower timeframe, 2 / just like USDKRW (see the issues published over the past 2 months). This continues the opening theme, “The chartist who makes no money”: if you think you can make money simply by drawing a line, that is overly naive.Charts themselves can give you nothing. Outstanding moves that fully unfold and price movements that allow you to make decisions with a clear basis for entry and exit must be price movements validated by all three systems: fundamentals, price action, and cross-asset relative pricing and capital flows.
USDMXN(Daily chart, as of 261004)
Chart:《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260927》
Peso Futures (daily chart, as of 261004)
3
USDCAD(Daily chart, as of 261004)
USDCAD, the smooth rise continues, with a potential Failed Breakout looming. An overbought pullback may come first, so for now we will not move the Stop up, to avoid being stopped out. It should be moved 1 / wait for T1 to trigger, 2 / and for the pullback to form a new setup/value area.
4
USDBRL(Daily chart, as of 261004)
USDBRL, hold a long position and move the stop up slightly. The first round of the election takes place on 10 4, a possible runoff on 10 25, and the subsequent fiscal policy are key drivers of the exchange rate. In 2014 and 2022, USDBRL fell after the first round but fully reversed the move before the runoff; in 2018, the real reached its strongest level on the Friday before the runoff. Therefore, The first round can cause major exchange-rate swings, but they may not last; the market will shift direction quickly, so we must be ready to pivot at any time and position ourselves alongside the winner.
5
Red indicates a consensus short, green a consensus long, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 261006)
USDSEK(Daily chart, as of 261004) Broke out as expected
Six. Mainland Trading Positioning
1
Narrative trading (daily chart, as of 261004)
Pair trades (daily chart, as of 261004)
5D% (as of 261004)
Those interested can find it at Ganglong (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies) for more details on the full 100+ mainland basket trade structure, the CN Basket Chartbook began publishing updates two weeks ago:
Gold Basket (daily chart, as of 261006)
A top-down view reveals more information; compared with futures markets, the structure of equity markets is sometimes much clearer.
Huangjiu (daily chart, as of 261006)
Quantum (weekly chart, as of 261006)
2
Note, the top-down trade monitoring of hundreds of mainland baskets will, starting this week, be fully updated on Ganglong inthe 《ARI’S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK》column. Index structure updates are retained here.
Shanghai Composite Index (daily chart, as of 261004)
Shanghai Composite Index (weekly chart, as of 261004)
Shenzhen Index (weekly and daily charts, as of 261006)
Still hovering within the descending channel.
CSI 500 & CSI 2000 (daily chart, as of 260927)
Likewise, CSI 500 was precisely rejected at the upper boundary of the channel.
3
Red indicates consensus on being short, green consensus on being long, and gray a lack of consensus; gold-edged dots indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260927)
A batch of tech names has returned to the Crowned area.
Seven. Precious Metals & Industrial Metals Positioning
1
CMX Gold (weekly chart, as of 260927)
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 260927)
Still, a bullish trend can only occur on the daily timeframe;The weekly momentum showed a slight improvement before coming under pressure, while gold and the silver/gold ratio both topped out (for a discussion of the silver/gold ratio, see《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》), which can be read alongside Sean’s commentary:
“(Chinese) Tactical Positioning _ Week of 09.28》
...
Gold CN Basket (daily chart, as of 260927)
In addition, a mention of the equity-market Basket Chartbook:Compared with the futures market, the structure of the equity market is sometimes much clearer，Since turning bearish, gold has shown no truly meaningful upward move.
2
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 260927)
Silver triggered the stop; we exited the position as planned.
Silver/gold ratio (daily chart, as of 260927)
As noted last week, the yellow line on this silver/gold ratio chart is the bullish-sentiment line for precious metals. For a further upside breakout, we would like to see the ratio move above this key horizontal line. This week, the ratio was precisely rejected here and then engulfed in the opposite direction, ruling out a further advance.
Three things to watch for in subsequent precious-metals trading:
1）Its linkage with the bond market—that is, whether it can break free from cross-asset pressure... 2) Whether underlying financial conditions can find a bottom—that is, whether they can be supported from a liquidity perspective... 3) Whether the silver-gold ratio can confirm a break above this white line—that is, whether bullish sentiment can truly return...
..
NMX Platinum (daily chart, as of 260927)
NMX Palladium (daily chart, as of 260927)
3
HG1!(daily chart, as of 260927)
Copper: price continues to rise, while momentum continues to weaken.
Eight. Positioning in alternative-asset trades
1
Small Yellow (daily chart, as of 260927)
Still holding the long position; a brief update to the structure: raise the Stop from SL to PT. For a detailed discussion, you can look back at《ARI’s WEEKLY WRAP 260920》。
Small E (daily chart, as of 260927)
Broadly the same. However, A topping signal has appeared.
...
Small Yellow/Small E (daily chart, as of 260927): key levels
Small Yellow/TOTAL (weekly chart, as of 260927)
Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations in your region and allocate personal assets within the bounds of applicable rules. This content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities
1
Agricultural commodities basket (daily chart, as of 260927)
Oversold bounce, but still in bearish territory
2
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260927)
Oversold bounce, but stalled precisely below the PT price level.
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260927)
The take-profit level continues to move lower.
...
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260927)
Still holding the short position; the structure is unchanged, so the stop-loss level should not be moved. Ongoing attempts at a bullish rebound have all failed (they have been precisely blocked by our SL level),Decisive selling is difficult to gainsay unless new outside capital comes in.
3
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260927)
The structure has not unfolded, so the take-profit level will not be moved.
4
Corn (daily chart, as of 260927)
Corn: the previous short position was stopped out during the week and turned long; unusual price action occurred on Friday. Linda posted intraday:
It broke below the previously established top support level intraday, but quickly rebounded during the late-session anomaly. The rebound occurred simultaneously in corn, soybeans, and wheat:
Corn (15-minute chart, as of 260927)
Corn overlaid with soybeans (15-minute chart, as of 260927)
Behind the unusual move was a battle of expectations over the US-China meeting. 1/ During the morning session, the market was disappointed that no agricultural purchase commitments were announced immediately after the meeting, and grains fell sharply across the board. 2/ As prices fell to support, Trump publicly said the outcome of the negotiations would make “American farmers very happy.” At the same time, the market learned that the two sides had reached arrangements on some goods, including US agricultural exports to China. 3/ US Trade Representative Greer said a fuller account of the negotiations would be released on Monday (after Greer said details would be released on Monday, the grain market began buying and recouped its losses), and explicitly noted that the arrangements covered US agricultural products and medical equipment...
A White House document released afterward confirmed that the two sides had discussed and advanced two items directly related to agriculture:
1. More favorable tariff treatment for “non-sensitive goods” worth approximately 300 hundred million US dollars in each direction; the US export list includes agricultural products;
2. Establishing a dedicated working group to address market-access barriers in the agricultural sector.
This also means Agricultural trading is entering its next phase: El Niño (weather) and the Russia trade have run their course, Compared with cocoa and coffee, corn, soybeans, and wheat—agricultural products tied to the US-China theme—will be the main drivers of volatility going forward. Fulfillment of agricultural purchase commitments going forward (as reflected in related futures prices) will also be an important signal for judging whether tariffs can be extended again.
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260927)
Wheat: continue lowering the take-profit level.
...
4
CBOTCorn overlaid with NTR (daily chart, as of 260927)
Of course, aside from the things discussed above, For my corn position, I will also monitor NTR as a cross-check The latter is also currently at support; watch whether support holds here or breaks down.
5
LE (daily chart, as of 260927)
1/ As expected, found support above the yellow line, 2/ then turned bullish, triggering
CT (daily chart, as of 260927)
Found precise support at the white line.View note
Ten. Oil and natural gas
1
BRN(daily chart, as of 260927)
Continued falling as expected, setting a lower closing price + several pauses at the yellow line.
BRN (hourly chart, as of 260927)
Why prices stalled at the yellow line
...
My assessment of the structure remains unchanged; for details, seeView notethis post. For everyone's convenience, I'll paste a copy below:
Still inside the channel, but a topping contraction pattern has already appeared, and momentum is weakening at the same time. The contraction means that price driving force is disappearing at this level, while systematic dip-buying capital continues to execute mechanically.
A tail event would constitute a breakout of the upper bound; a breakdown of the channel would trigger passive stop-losses among these mechanical funds and produce a longs-killing-longs decline.
If a decline materializes, we may find support in the 92–95 zone, corresponding to a 10%–15% drop (depending on the time and speed of the decline). If so, I expect some news to surface in a timely manner at that level.
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HO (daily chart, as of 260927)
#HO triggered a Bear Trigger and entered a descending channel. The model did not generate a top-prediction signal, but alongside the unusual capital activity, we also saw the momentum detail begin to weaken.
2
UNG (daily chart, as of 260927)
QC has entered an ascending channel..
QC (daily chart, as of 260927)
HG (daily chart, as of 260927)
I appreciate everyone's kind words, but I'm not important, nor do I have any desire to become famous. I prefer to keep a low profile; the content in our private group is for our own members, and we try not to share it externally. Thank you all. Much appreciated, friends.
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Used together with the US market, A-share and Hong Kong market, and commodities groups, Only set it up if you really need it I know everyone is supportive, but don’t waste money or spend recklessly.
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