April twenty-third, two thousand twenty-six
《Investment Framework and Trading Mindset (IV): Multi-Timeframe System》
《Explaining the Investment Framework and Trading Mindset (Five): A System for Identifying Leveraged Funds》
Author: Ariston
“For ways to add me as a friend, see the pinned post on Planet”
Within the cross-market asset strategy notes, we will gradually expand our discussion of our own investment/trading framework(Take what you need and use what works; the ultimate aim is to help every reader develop a framework suited to them personally,)...
I wonder whether everyone will like this. I’m also considering starting a series of updates on macroeconomics for beginners, technical analysis for beginners, and Q&A collections from the various Planet communities; if you like it, please give it a like to let us know.
...This article explains the Planet leveraged-fund (fund monitoring) dataset and the logic behind it
Figure: Example of the leveraged-fund (fund monitoring) dataset, Hong Kong stocks, mainland-market fundamental screening panel
Since 25-11-25《Explaining the Investment Framework and Trading Mindset (One): The Fundamental Principles of the Three Systems—Fundamentals, Technical Patterns, and Fund Flows》 provided a complete account of the essence of the framework, the purpose of Planet’s content should by now be gradually coming into focus for everyone:
1) The Global Market Notes column and the Miscellaneous section focus on analyzing fundamentals (System One)
2) The three-level data panels and chart commentary archive focus on identifying technical patterns (System Two)
3) The weekly market review combines the framework of ideas with the actual performance of global assets, and is the practical implementation that synchronizes moving from knowledge to action
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This also raises a natural question: as System Three (fund flows and relative-value analysis) includes, but is not limited to, the relative-value matrix, institutional fund monitoring, and leveraged-fund monitoring discussed previously, as well as a range of multidimensional fund-monitoring data that I use personally but have not mentioned, there has been no regular content tracking them, apart from occasional references in the weekly market review...
There were several considerations behind not sharing it earlier: 1) System Three is highly dependent on data results and is the most objective of the three systems, with the least subjective content. This means
that, after careful consideration, the leveraged-fund (fund monitoring) dataset will also be shared on Planet.
I. Cross-asset: Global Asset State Dashboard (Core Dataset) + China-U.S. Macro ETF State Dashboard (Betting Tool)
Chart: Starting this week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. Cross-Market Asset Strategy Notes (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=cross-market-strategies) will provide 1) three-level state data for global asset classes, and 2) state data for a selected set of key ETF in the China and U.S. markets. This is our own toolkit for making macro bets.
Chart: Example (Trend Identification—Three-Level Global Asset State Dashboard (Core Dataset)); only the first 30 rows are shown here
Chart: Example (Trend Identification—Three-Level China-U.S. Macro ETF State Dashboard (Betting Tool)); only the first 30 rows are shown here
II. Honglong: Mainland Market (Fundamental Screening) State Dashboard
Chart: Starting this week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. Honglong Asia (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies) will provide three-level state data for individual mainland-market stocks (after two rounds of screening)
Chart: Example (Trend Identification—Mainland Market (Fundamental Screening) State Dashboard); only the first 30 rows are shown here
III. Xingzhi: U.S. Stock Market (Fundamental Screening) State Dashboard
Chart: Starting this week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. Xingzhi U.S. Stocks (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies) will provide three-level state data for individual U.S. stocks (after two rounds of screening)
Chart: Example (Trend Identification—U.S. Stock Market (Fundamental Screening) State Dashboard); only the first 30 rows are shown here
IV.Basic Principles and Systematic Reflections
Building an advantage for yourself in the market is a continuous and lengthy process. Market conditions are constantly evolving, As individual participants, during the decision-making stage before taking action, how to conduct clear and effective market tracking will constitute the 90% content of the decision-making system. This is the process of listening to price, because pricing outcomes are the only true feedback (narratives are not, nor are judgments; only price is).
A gentleman plans his moves according to the time and acts with the trend; a skilled warrior harnesses the prevailing momentum to guide events.
Re specting the market means first understanding its state: dance along when the market dances (trend), and rest with it when it rests (silence). What winners earn is simply the money made from trends and from taking profits and cutting losses. You must strive to position yourself within the trend and exit to take profits before your sell price falls below your buy price.
Market structure often develops through the alternation of a series of directional moves and non-directional ranges. The latter are periods of rest for the market, used to digest prior price movements and build momentum for the next expansion in volatility. This reflects the subtle interaction of buying and selling forces as they move between equilibrium and disequilibrium; this is the market(This is true not only in secondary markets, but wherever buying and selling take place.)and the essence of the price movements observed by others(Others observe price movements; we focus on the more fundamental structure behind them!)
Most of the time, the market is in a state of random fluctuation (the perfect market of orthodox financial theory, where price movements come very close to a random-walk model). In this state, forces and resistance are balanced, and prices fluctuate around certain price levels...
For a small portion of the time (the reason does not matter), forces may overcome resistance, giving rise to an Impulse Move. Once an Impulse Move wins broader recognition from market participants with capital, it can develop into the momentum of a trend state (Momentum Move), expanding the price range...
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The multi-timeframe trend-identification system uses resonance across the monthly timeframe (long-term state) (the reference timeframe for Position Holders), the weekly timeframe (medium-term state) (the execution timeframe for Position Holders and the reference timeframe for Swing Traders), and the daily timeframe (short-term state) (the execution timeframe for Swing Traders and the reference timeframe for Day Traders) to produce a practical market-tracking system that combines effectiveness (positive expected results), stability (long-term effectiveness), and sensitivity (the ability to identify state changes at the earliest opportunity, so as to assess the situation and adjust one’s exposure appropriately).
The data panel consists of two basic components: three states and three timeframes, which together form the following nine combinations:
1) Daily uptrend state (X_D_Trend_State=1)
2) Daily downtrend state (X_D_Trend_State=-1)
3) Daily quiet, trendless state (X_D_Trend_State=0)
4) Weekly uptrend state (X_W_Trend_State=1)
5) Weekly downtrend state (X_W_Trend_State=-1)
6) Weekly quiet, trendless state (X_W_Trend_State=0)
7) Monthly uptrend state (X_M_Trend_State=1)
8) Monthly downtrend state (X_M_Trend_State=-1)
9) Monthly quiet, trendless state (X_M_Trend_State=0)
Uptrend states are marked in green on the data panel, downtrend states in red, and quiet states in yellow.
Figure: three timeframes, three states, three colors
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Beyond this, from understanding to application, the process of moving from knowing to doing is especially important. This is a perilous leap on which everything depends:
Figure: A correct view does not automatically lead to correct action, nor does it automatically produce the expected result
Therefore, beyond answering “what” the state is, the data panel goes a step further and answers “how long” it has been in that state, helping participants move from knowing to taking action at the earliest opportunity. Enter at the very start of a trend, and likewise exit at the very first sign that it has ended...
Great traders lead when conditions are favorable, and are the first to defect when the tide turns.
You can find the State Duration columns in the panel immediately after the daily, weekly, and monthly state columns:
1) X_D_State_Bars
2) X_W_State_Bars
3) X_Y_State_Bars
The number in State Duration1 is extremely important: from one come two, from two come three, and 1 is the starting point for every state, You should lead when conditions are favorable here, and defect when the tide turns here. Act here. Have a basis for both advancing and retreating.
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1
Find 1, and you have found the asset undergoing a structural move right now.
We do not predict; we follow—but we must be the first to follow, ahead of everyone (Mr. Market, consensus, and the curve).
Ahead of the curve (the technical analysts) (we have never thought we were like them, because it is their money we want to make) (while being X candlesticks faster than they are, we must not only be faster but also more accurate); ahead of Mr. Market (the value investors) (by identifying states on longer time frames and cross-validating them, we can spot undervalued assets better than those who call themselves value investors, and act with a better basis for advancing or retreating at better times (key turning points)); and ahead of consensus (the noise and narrative context of consensus among retail market investors and buy- and sell-side analysts) (we are more humble than those who try to predict the market as if telling fortunes; we respect the market and listen only to the market itself).
Figure: Strive to achieve the four words “spot it early”—some people spend their whole lives at it...
Five. How to use it (01): Use the three-time-frame state panel for trend identification to find assets undergoing a reversal on a shorter time frame.
The first way to use it is to filter for assets with a daily state of 1 (upward), then sort State Bars (duration of the current state) from shortest to longest.These assets have just undergone a trend reversal on a shorter time frame. The picture is clearer when combined with the weekly and monthly states. Generally speaking, for right-side entries, it is best if both the weekly and monthly states are green.
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (major asset classes) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (mainland market data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (U.S. stock market data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (China-U.S. ETF data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
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Six. How to use it (02): Use the three-time-frame state panel for trend identification to find assets to bet on from the left or the right side.
1) For left-side entries, the daily state is green (a short-term reversal signal has begun), the weekly state is quiet and yellow (quiet), and the monthly state is red (in a downtrend),This is an early reversal signal, the first stage of a left-side entry;
Figure: Filter for a green daily state (a short-term reversal signal has begun), a quiet and yellow weekly state (quiet), and a red monthly state (downtrend)
(Asset-class data)
Figure: Filter for a green daily state (a short-term reversal signal has begun), a quiet and yellow weekly state (quiet), and a red monthly state (downtrend)
(U.S. equity market data)
2) With the weekly level turning green (silent to uptrend) and the monthly level turning yellow (downtrend to silent), this is the second stage of the shift from the left side to the right side;
Chart: Screen for a green daily level and a green weekly level (silent to uptrend), with a yellow monthly level (downtrend to silent) + sort the daily level in ascending order from 1 (looking for what has just begun)
(Mainland China market data)
Chart: Screen for a green daily level and a green weekly level (silent to uptrend), with a yellow monthly level (downtrend to silent) + sort the daily level in ascending order from 1 (looking for what has just begun)
(Asset-class data)
3）Once all levels turn green, the main right-side uptrend is underway;
Chart: All levels green (strong right-side setup) + sort the daily level in ascending order from 1 (looking for what has just begun)
(Asset-class data)
Note: Friends familiar with the markets may suddenly recognize many familiar names here, such as CNYUSD (already 48 trading days into the strong right-side phase), such as M2K, and Peso, For those doing macro or multi-asset research, the data dashboard also uses data to show you which narratives are really taking hold, so you can stay ahead not only of the market, but also of your peers..
4) Daily-level pullbacks during a main uptrend or an uptrend background come to an end as the daily level turns yellow (green to yellow/red to yellow):
Chart: The main uptrend comes to an end (green to yellow), or a daily-level pullback against an uptrend background comes to an end (red to yellow) + sort the daily level in ascending order from 1 (looking for what has just begun)
(Asset-class data)
5) Subsequently, when the weekly and monthly levels turn green and the daily level shifts from red to yellow or yellow to green, it is a window to build positions on dips within an uptrend...
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Further note: The China-U.S. ETF dashboard is a treasure trove for buy-side professionals; the mainland China and U.S. equity market dashboards are even more valuable for analysts covering their respective markets. They are all things that can help you stay ahead not only of the market, but also of your peers, and if you become proficient in using them, you will stand out compared with others who lack a sound basis for decisions, have a narrow perspective, and keep their heads down doing their work.... You will stand out a lot... and very quickly...
Seven, How to use (03): Use the trend-identification dashboard for the three timeframes to avoid bottom-fishing too early
The key to making left-side bets is to avoid trying to be clever by bottom-fishing too early. You may buy at the midpoint (or even while the market is still near the top), or endure a long period of downward consolidation that wears down your resolve and wastes capital...
Avoiding all assets with a red (downtrend) weekly level can help you steer clear of all trap-like medium-term trends...
Chart: The weekly (medium-term) and monthly (long-term) levels are still red; entering at this point may mean buying halfway down the slope
(Mainland China market data)
Chart: The weekly (medium-term) and monthly (long-term) levels are still red; entering at this point may mean buying halfway down the slope
(Asset-class data)
Chart: The weekly (medium-term) and monthly (long-term) levels are still red; entering at this point may mean buying halfway down the slope
(U.S. equity market data)
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Eight, How to use (0N)...
There’s actually much more than this. Feel free to explore the rest for yourselves, and you’re also welcome to message us privately with feedback and ideas for how to use it.
Wishing everyone an early Happy Lunar New Year!
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If you haven’t followed us on X (formerly Twitter) yet, please do. We mainly post miscellaneous thoughts there:
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We ask our traders in the trading room to put out a single-market note roughly every 2 days, covering US stocks, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and commodities. We’ll select the better ones to share in the corresponding private groups (we also include some of our own commentary, though we do take steps to anonymize it).
If you’re interested, subscribe as needed (only if you need it—don’t waste your money):
US stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies(Xingzhi)
A-shares and Hong Kong stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies(Ganglong)
Commodities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies(Dixin)
As for the level of detail, we’ll generally go as far as the industry level. For mainland China, we’ll try to avoid crowded trades; if we get too specific, people may jump in ahead of us. We may be able to be more specific about US stocks, but you’ll still need to think things through and fill in the gaps yourselves, There are no trades here that you can simply follow!
Our overall win rate has been pretty good lately.
We’re not sure whether everyone likes this new Notes format. If you think something else would work better, you can also leave a like to let us know. We’ll decide whether to continue with this kind of content or return to the previous column format based on the feedback we receive.
Wishing you all the best.
2026.02.14
Note: All content in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice, nor should it be taken as the basis for any laws, regulations or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for making decisions.