March fifth, twenty twenty-six
《The 4–5 Week Time Window for Gold, the Dollar, and Crude Oil》
《The 4-5 Week Time Window for Gold, the Dollar, and Crude Oil》
Author: Ariston; WeChat ID: Primeinvestor
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Gold prices are struggling to break through:
Chart: The leveraged funds that the 260301 weekly mentioned quickly finished adding to their positions, while the trend remains dormant and has failed to turn upward.
On this point, Sean offered an interesting perspective in his note the day before yesterday:
I have repeatedly made this point since January, but it is still worth emphasizing: Gold typically outperforms other assets before a crisis and after it ends, but during the crisis itself, it trades more like a risk asset. As stocks approach a tipping point, once the floodgates open, almost no asset will be spared, including gold. The only thing that might rise is the US Dollar Index (USD/DXY), and perhaps crude oil if the conflict escalates further. I do believe the market is underestimating the probability that this conflict will evolve into a war lasting several years.
Gold has behaved exactly as we expected, and in the process we successfully identified several key short-term resistance and support levels (see our previous tactical positioning analysis). If prices confirm a break above the 5400 level, that could signal a retest of the historical high near 5600, though I doubt this will happen in the near term. The stock market is approaching a tipping point, and once that point is breached, everything will fall, including gold.
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Given that the current US-Israeli military operation may last 4 to 5 weeks（A US-Israel military campaign that may still be in its early stage and may stretch for 4-5 weeks, an 'intended' timeframe as stated by President Trump）and that US military escorts and political risk insurance are in place there is a lag of 10 to 14 days, so geopolitics will continue to pose a potential risk premium for crude oil prices in the near term.
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Gold’s 60-day rolling beta to the US dollar has fallen below -5, meaning gold is extremely sensitive to moves in the dollar; this level of extreme sensitivity was last seen in 2013 (when gold performed notably poorly). Although sensitivity was expected to ease, the indicator remains elevated and has not weakened as expected, so risk should be avoided:
Chart: Gold has remained at this extremely high sensitivity level, with beta to the US dollar below -5, for 27 trading days—longer than the record of 20 trading days set during gold’s sharp decline in 2013.
In addition to its extremely high sensitivity to the US dollar, its positive correlation with risk assets is also at its highest level since 2013, meaning gold’s hedging properties are limited during volatility triggered by geopolitical risk; the risk-reward profile is unfavorable:
Chart: Gold's correlation to SPX highest since 2013 (in annual average terms)
The pressure on gold from geopolitics and the oil-gold ratio deserves attention:1) Actual production-cut data and inventory levels of Gulf state oil producers before 3 month 10 day; 2) Whether the US military will officially begin escorting commercial vessels within the next 10 to 14 days; 3) Whether gold’s 60-day rolling beta against the US dollar returns to the normal range above -5 ...
Chart: Oil-gold ratio (daily chart, as of 260305)
The oil-gold ratio is currently at a key level, with downward support above 60. A return to around 60 would offer an excellent window to re-enter long. We’ll continue to provide updates, and this chart will also be included in our weekly coverage.
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Chart: GDX (daily chart, as of 260305)
The long trade in GDX failed. This is reasonable given that gold had not turned bullish on the daily timeframe by CMX. We will stick strictly to our trading plan. The key going forward is to wait for gold futures to turn bullish on the daily timeframe. If risk-on trading in the crude oil market continues for 4-5 weeks (this does not mean crude will continue its parabolic rise, but it does mean it may continue moving sideways while potential tail volatility persists, and the US dollar will continue to weigh on gold), this long-entry window may be delayed until April.
Chart: CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260305), still not bullish
At present, a turn back to bullish would require a price above 5480.
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Chart: Korea-India ratio (weekly chart, as of 260305)
You can review our call on downside support for the Korean index for yourself. We acted at the critical moment:
Chart: A liquidation-style sell-off arrived as expected
Chart: The 50 daily area is a strong support level for a rebound
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Chart: KOSDAQ (daily chart, as of 260305)
As expected, it rebounded precisely at the 50 daily level (blue line on the chart).
You’re welcome.
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Chart: USDGBP (daily chart, as of 260305)
Unrealized profits on several US dollar long positions continue to grow. We’re moving up our take-profit levels ourselves to lock in profits gradually.
Chart: USDCHF (daily chart, as of 260305)
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Just look at this chart of the US Dollar Index and you’ll get an exceptionally clear picture of its trajectory and positioning:
Chart: US Dollar Index (four-hour chart, as of 260305)
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(End of article)
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As for the level of detail, it will probably get down to the industry level. On the mainland, we will try to avoid crowded trades; if we write too specifically, people may get ahead of the trade. We may be able to be more specific about U.S. stocks, but you will still need to think things through and fill in the gaps yourself, There are no trades you can simply copy!
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Wishing you all the best.
2026.03.05
Note: All content in this document is for reference only, does not constitute any investment advice, and is not a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for making decisions.