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6 September 2026
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Zero. Protect yourself
1
An unexpected forced intervention
During the week, gold triggered a trade-invalidation component that I had embedded years ago and that had never been activated since I set it up. Under extremely stringent, specific conditions, this component blocks the model’s automated execution with the highest priority and forces an extrapolation in the opposite direction to recalculate a new structural position.
There is no point repeating the details. You can review the Planet post or read this article, which lays out the timeline:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/O5u8A7VOqh2IIjIP0BUMYQ
...
CMX Gold (5-minute chart), the sudden drop has not been reversed
In short, this is something I never thought would be triggered when I first designed it, but the market seems to love these kinds of coincidences and jokes. The last time this happened, the wick on the five-minute chart was far larger than this time, and there was no pause or rebound all the way down to much lower levels.
This time, the situation in gold is relatively safe. Even if you are long, at least as of now there is no particular problem, but calling it relatively safe is a conclusion drawn in hindsight. This case is a reminder to me, and to everyone:Don't think that some things are far removed from you. Things that seem impossible to happen again do happen again, and before they do, we don't know how far they will go before they stop. Make sure you have a plan so that if a problem arises, you can be the first to get out.
I'll put more details about this emergency valve setting in《Basic and Less Basic Technical Analysis》in the risk-control section later in the series. I don't know when it will be updated, but please remember in advance:
Protecting yourself is more important than missing an opportunity.
2
Honglong Planet began its weekly Chartbook updates today, covering hundreds of trading themes in the mainland market;Many price movements look complicated, but their underlying structure is not, provided you can identify them exceptionally well and track them exceptionally well.
To those who also subscribe to Honglong, I know some of you don't check it often, so here's a reminder. Use this handbook to establish your own well-founded rules for entering and exiting, and position yourself with the trend rather than against it.
The first issue, PDF, will also be updated here in Cross-Market.
3
I have a bit of a cold and am not feeling very well. I'm worried I may not be thinking clearly, so I won't say too much. I'll keep this issue brief, and we'll discuss more next weekend. With the seasons changing, please take care of your health, too.
I. Macro Trading Positioning
1
U.S. Treasuries remain broadly weak, but the post-employment-data bear steepening reflects a higher probability of rate hikes, not doubts about U.S. Treasuries themselves. The latter would more likely show up in term premiums or bond supply. Fiscal concerns remain important, but they are not unique to the U.S.: Japanese government bonds, German government bonds and other European government bonds, as well as U.K. gilts, face similar issues. If everyone has the same problem, relatively speaking, it is no longer a problem. At least for now, the market has returned to trading on fundamentals rather than focusing excessively on fiscal concerns.
As long as the U.S. economy remains steady, upward pressure on nominal rates cannot be ignored, unless the bond selloff ultimately triggers a repricing of risk assets, especially U.S. equities. In a K-shaped economy, the stock-market wealth effect remains favorable for the economic outlook and continues to support households' ability to absorb rising prices and increase consumption.
US10Y(Daily chart, as of 260906) Still in a downtrend channel, with the upper boundary at 4.826%
The inflation data due next week are key to the rate decision on 9 16, with price disturbances resulting from changes in the tariff structure being far less important than core services; the focus should be on core services and whether they reaccelerate will matter more than whether the result is 0.2 or 0.3. Also, returning to the question that came up last week, if the Fed takes no action in 9, the next meeting at which action is genuinely possible will not be until 12, creating a risk of falling behind the curve.
2
Macro Drivers (as of 260906)
Abnormal moves in macro-theme trades (as of 260906)
Red indicates consensus short positioning, green consensus long positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold outlines indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260906)
Chart: Real financial conditions (market pricing) overlaid with precious metals, technology and alternative-asset composites
Financial Conditions & Precious Composite & Tech Composite & Crypto Composite (as of 260906)
Real financial conditions turned downward last week and tightened further this week.
二. Technology trade positioning
1
KOSPI (weekly chart, as of 260906)
KOSPI (daily chart, as of 260906)
The weekly momentum of the Korean index continues to weaken, while the daily chart shows a consolidation with contracting range. This prolonged period of narrow trading has lasted a long time; range expansion is most likely to occur in September, so be prepared. Go long on an upside move and short on a downside move.
Going long still requires at least a break above the white line; a break above the upper boundary of the daily bearish channel would be even better.
...
SOXX(Weekly chart, as of 260906)
SOXX, the weekly chart made a failed breakdown at the lower boundary of the channel, completing a bottom auction. We now have a fractal center, and over the next couple of weeks we can gradually determine whether a bottom fractal is confirmed. Once confirmed, a bullish rebound will emerge on the daily chart and will most likely continue up to the upper boundary of the weekly Ariston Channel, that is, to a level above 620.
The daily chart closed higher on Friday, above the midline, and is just a hair away from breaking above the upper boundary of the bearish channel (528.95):
SOXX (daily chart, as of 260906) is approaching the upper boundary of the bearish channel; a breakout would trigger a bullish rebound. The price level for a reversal from bullish to bearish is below the upper boundary.
This pricing was mentioned repeatedly in previous weekly reports, namely:Rate hikes, contrary to expectations, benefit hard tech rather than hurt it in the initial phase.Markets always select for beauty on a relative basis, and rate hikes will further strengthen the technology sector’s advantage, especially before the spending inflection point and before the traditional economy shows signs of improvement:
...
STAR Market 50 (weekly chart, as of 260906)
STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260906). The price for a reversal from bearish to bullish is set above the highs of the three flat-top trading days.
The weekly and daily trends are both downward. The daily move is compressed into a narrow range, accompanied by three consecutive flat-top trading days—a fairly clear passive pattern, with capital waiting for confirmation from overseas markets. We can expect a breakout in SOXX to prompt 50 on the STAR Market to turn bullish and move higher as well. The only issue is that the STAR Market’s daily downtrend channel remains very wide, so trading will remain divergent until its upper boundary is broken.
2
Tech Monitor Mainland Basket as an asset (daily chart, as of 260906)
Divergence, with the bearish structure clearly dominant. This is a very good extreme-sentiment point, isn’t it? But don’t blindly try to catch the bottom. To me, catching a bottom is no different from gambling. Waiting for confirmation of a bullish reversal before acting won’t make you miss out. I’m very cautious; if you want to survive in the market for longer, I suggest you learn from me.
Some messages from readers behind the scenes: 1) You can’t expect to take other people’s money and still have them greet you with a smile. 2) Being a fence-sitter is actually a good thing.
Tech Monitor (daily chart, as of 260906)
A group of leading global technology companies got moving first. My model turned bullish on them on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively.Keep this on your own watchlist (this is a bottom-up bullish setup against a background of being in a bear zone, and it is very likely to end with a broad stop-out. Take responsibility for your own money and make your own decisions.）。
3
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260830》
The chart above shows the comment after NVDA’s results last week, when the price instead turned bearish. The expectation at the time was that it would ideally complete an outside bar this week and ultimately close above the channel’s upper boundary on the weekly chart.
NVDA(Weekly chart, as of 260906)
NVDA (daily chart, as of 260906)
The outside bar was completed this week as expected, but the channel’s upper boundary held, preventing a weekly channel breakout. Uncertainty remains, but the picture should become clearer starting next week.
DRAM(Daily chart, as of 260906) On Friday, the price broke above the planned long-entry price; the stop (the point at which the breakout would fail) was placed below Thursday’s low.
SMHX(Daily chart, as of 260906) Plan to switch to long at the white line.
III. Global Equities Positioning
1
Red indicates consensus short positioning, green consensus long positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold outlines indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260906)
GREK (daily chart, as of 260906)
GREK, after the take-profit was hit and I was stopped out, the next day saw a reversal engulfing pattern, and then new highs again on Friday. The risk-reward was indeed relatively less favorable here. I didn’t keep chasing it. There were two issues with this trade: 1) Given the political risks, when taking a position on the initial breakout, I didn’t follow the model’s plan to enter at the standard position size and only put on a partial position; 2) I moved the take-profit too quickly.
...
EWT(Weekly chart, as of 260906)
EWT (daily chart, as of 260906)
Regarding the EWT mentioned last week, the stop was moved up from breakeven to below the weekly low and the channel midpoint. So far, the trend has continued to unfold.
2
Global equities trade developments (Economic) (as of 260906)
Global equities trade developments (Structure) (as of 260906)
Since the end of 7, EM has continued to outperform DM (as of 260906)
Although resources have strong macro support while technology is in a downtrend, the structure is still making higher highs and higher lows (as of 260906).
IV. U.S. Equities Positioning
1
SPX(Weekly chart, as of 260906)
SPX (daily chart, as of 260906)
SPX (hourly chart, as of 260906)
SPX is hovering around the weekly T1. During the week, the daily chart found precise support at the lower channel boundary and triggered a bullish reversal setup on Thursday. The hourly chart is being capped by the white downtrend line. As context, if this bullish setup in SPX holds, it could extend all the way to the daily target in one move, namely above 8k.
2
MEME(Daily chart, as of 260906)
The core proxy for betting on market sentiment, MEME, formed a strong outside bar on Thursday and triggered a bullish reversal near the close; the follow-through day on Friday also performed well. Choppy price action may occur near the channel’s upper boundary (8.31); if it breaks above that boundary, the T1 target is quite likely to be reached. The stop is placed below the low of the bottom fractal.
3
Red indicates consensus short positioning, green consensus long positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold outlines indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260906)
A strong-momentum backdrop above the green line; above the yellow line is where we can trade, while below the red line is our disadvantage zone, where the market is likely to move in a more random fashion (as of 260906).
It fell below the yellow line but found immediate support.
Five. FX Trade Positioning
1
USDKRW(Daily chart, as of 260906)
Unrealized gains continue to expand. This trade has moved very smoothly since the entry was posted on Planet, and, looking back from today, it is the most tradable pair in the FX market. Continue moving the stop-loss lower.
...
2
USDBRL(Weekly chart, as of 260906)
USDBRL (daily chart, as of 260906)
The position has gone from an unrealized loss to an unrealized gain. However, we will not move the stop-loss here for now:
1) On the daily timeframe, it has not broken below the bullish channel; instead, it formed a bottom fractal at the lower boundary, showing that market participants do not want a smooth move down here. 2) Daily momentum has continued to remain compressed, so a further move down and break lower would require momentum support.
EWZ(Daily chart, as of 260906)
It stalled precisely around T1 and triggered the first top fractal on the way up (marking the end of the smooth advance). T1 We sold part of the position; the passive stop for the remainder is set below the closing price of the bar preceding the formation of a delayed top fractal.
3
Red indicates consensus short positioning, green consensus long positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold outlines indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260906)
USDPHP(Daily chart, as of 260906) I did not take this trade. If anyone was watching, both attempts at the high were blocked precisely at T1 (not off by a hair).
...
Six. Mainland China Trade Positioning
1
Narrative trade status (daily chart, as of 260906)
Pair trade status (daily chart, as of 260906)
2
The top-down monitoring of hundreds of Baskets will be fully updated on Ganglong from this week onward in the《ARI’S WEEKLY CHARTBOOK》column. Index structure updates are retained here.
Shanghai Composite (weekly and daily charts, as of 260906)
Shenzhen Component (weekly and daily charts, as of 260906)
On the weekly timeframe, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices are in downtrends; on the daily timeframe, they have diverged. The divergence began when funds rotated into a group of old-economy stocks and lifted them.
CSI 500 & CSI 2000 (daily chart, as of 260906)
They have likewise diverged.
3
Red indicates consensus short positioning, green consensus long positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold outlines indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260906)
Seven. Precious Metals Trade Positioning
1
CMX Gold (weekly chart, as of 260906)
CMX Gold (daily chart, as of 260906)
The daily structure is unchanged.
CMX Gold (5-minute chart, as of 260906)
Price has repeatedly battled around the key level（4521.5） but has never truly established itself above it. That, in itself, is the biggest problem.
...
For more on my medium- and long-term views on gold, see my discussion with Christian.https://x.com/Ariston_Macro/status/2095067819004375429?s=20Regardless of the outcome, next week will bring a very clear directional structure for precious metals, More importantly, let price speak for itself：
2
CMX Silver (weekly chart, as of 260906)
CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 260906)
NMX Platinum (weekly chart, as of 260906)
NMX Platinum (weekly chart, as of 260906)
NMX Palladium (weekly chart, as of 260906)
NMX Palladium (daily chart, as of 260906)
Eight. Alternative Asset Trade Positioning
1
Little Yellow (daily chart, as of 260830)
The blue line on the chart marks the target-price structure for the first long position in T2; we reduced the position here and subsequently closed out the entire position.A strong engulfing pattern appeared during the week and triggered a shift back to bullish, This is a structure that differs from the earlier bullish turn at the bottom: a reversal structure that is completely different from a breakout structure
Small E (weekly chart, as of 260906)
Little E (weekly chart, as of 260906)
Little E (daily chart, as of T2)
The two corroborate each other.
Note: Please comply with the laws and regulations in your region and allocate personal assets only within the bounds of applicable rules; this content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.
Nine. Soft commodities
1
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260816》
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260830》
Agricultural basket (daily chart, as of 260906)
Reached T2 as expected this week and completed the sale; the remaining position was exited passively.。
Another successful bet this year—and this success belongs to all of us.
2
Cocoa (weekly chart, as of 260830)
Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260830)
Cocoa: took profit and exited the second long position, bringing both the long and short swings to a perfect close.
An unusual move has appeared here. To go long again, we need to wait for the price to break above the red line.
Chart:《ARI’S WEEKLY WRAP 260830》
Coffee (daily chart, as of 260906)
The take-profit plan was triggered. Since closing the position, the price has fallen below the channel.
...
Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260906)
Open profits continue to reach new highs, and PT continues to move higher.
3
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap
Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260906)
Sugar: appreciating the ultimate aesthetics of price action. After reducing the position at T2, the price stalled and consolidated here. An unusual move appeared on Thursday, and we are ready to close the remaining position at any time.
Corn (daily chart, as of 260906)
Corn made a new high this week and triggered the T2 target price. As planned last week, we sold at T2 and moved the stop-loss line for the remaining position further up.
As prices stall here, trading activity—just as with raw sugar—has also shown unusual behavior. Combined with the fact that these actions have not led to a further price breakout, it is more likely that these moves reflect others selling alongside us. The rally in agricultural products may be taking a pause for now.
Chart:26-08-02 Weekly Review Ari's Weekly Wrap
Wheat, likewise, was closed for a profit as planned; we are now short:
Wheat (daily chart, as of 260906)
...
Below is the conclusion to last week’s section on agricultural products,
Keeping it here again this week:
“There’s been growing discussion in the market about agricultural products and the so-called agricultural inflation cycle. When we started covering agricultural products, there was almost no interest at all, and we even got abuse from some strangers in the public account’s后台. Now, all of a sudden, there are agricultural-product bulls everywhere. That’s something I don’t like.
The last time I said this was when I was covering crude oil.
It may be overheated in the short term; assess the risks for yourself.”
Ten. Some others: uranium
1
URA (weekly chart, as of 260906)
URA (daily chart, as of 260906)
The weekly chart is in a descending channel, but momentum continues to improve.
I appreciate everyone’s support, but I’m not important, nor do I have any intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep my head down and work quietly. The Planet content is for our own internal use, and we try not to share it externally. Thank you all. Thanks, everyone.
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(End of full text)
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