• ...losses are a necessary cost of doing this business...

• ...price clearing comes before position clearing; reliable re-entry depends on a reset at the position level...

• ...this year will be a pivotal time for action in Warsh's career...

• ...scaling up pretraining is no longer the only game in town...

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Zero: Admit when you're wrong, and do so quickly

The renewed attempt to turn bullish on 50 ended in a stop-loss. The problem is not the failed trade itself, but whether, in the face of failure, you can decisively execute a stop-loss and manage your entry and exit with discipline. If you're wrong, you're wrong: admit it quickly. You should not fear any mistake; these are necessary costs to pay in the market.

Two long positions lacking mutual confirmation ended in failure, triggering stop-losses, which were decisively executed

Stop-losses are meant to cut off larger losses and help you survive longer in the market. Stay at the table.

Focus on payoff rather than probability; treat failed attempts as necessary costs to be paid

Losses are a necessary cost of doing this business Compared with being pulled around by your emotions, viewing the issue as a cost of doing business will help you understand more clearly what you're doing when making decisions, and make it easier to manage your entries and exits with discipline.

Give yourself a way to stay in the game

More importantly, avoid putting yourself in a position where you cannot make a decision in the first place.

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I. Macro Trade Positioning

Figure: Macro Drivers positioning chart

Dots with gold borders indicate an upward-rightward move (as of 260719)

Red indicates unanimous bearish positioning, green unanimous bullish positioning, and gray a lack of consensus; dots with gold borders indicate an upward-rightward move (as of 260712)

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II. Technology Trades

Figure: Technology leaders, Han Index, broke down and moved lower as we expected

KOSPI (daily chart, as of 260719),The short take-profit level was moved from 8051.35 in last week's weekly update to 7704.95

1) After Planet turned bearish, it has continued falling to date; 2) volatility widened after it broke below the yellow line; 3) it rebounded to the T1 target price; 4) the breakout above the long/short line failed; 5) it fell again...

SK Hynix (daily chart, as of 260719),The short take-profit level was moved from 2945k in last week's weekly update to 2171k

1) After Planet turned bearish, it has continued falling to date; 2) it rebounded to the T1 target price; 3) the breakout above the long/short line failed, stopping it precisely—the rebound's high came within just 0.4% of the line—before it fell again...

Review it yourself

The comparison between Korea and 15-year Chinese A-shares can only be made to a limited extent.China's margin financing balance grew 5-fold in the 12 months before peaking; before Korea's recent shift from bullish to bearish, it had only grown to about 1.8 times its previous level, far smaller in scale and intensity than China's at the time. More fundamentally, earnings and valuations differ: expected earnings growth in Korea in 2026 was about 296%, versus 7.8% in China in 2015. In the table of forward price-to-earnings ratios over 12 months, Korea currently stands at 8.6 times, while China reached 11.4 times in 2015. To some extent, as long as US data-center spending remains strong, Korean earnings could still be supported. That is why it is difficult to conclude that a major historical peak has already formed.

According to Kindleberge, a genuine technological or policy shift first brings optimism, credit expansion, and rising prices; speculation then spreads, leverage increases, and participants become increasingly reliant on further price gains rather than cash flow or valuation...

Korea may have entered the euphoria phase, but it has indeed not reached the traditional point of true mania;Only when new buying is exhausted or a more substantial shock involving real money undermines confidence might the market proceed through distress, insider selling, panic, forced deleveraging, and, finally, market-wide psychological revulsion.

SOXX (daily chart, as of 260719) 6.23 has continued falling since the failed long entry was stopped out; the purple rectangle is being drawn, and the long/short prices should not be moved

After breaking below the lower edge of the purple area (Friday's trading high was precisely capped by the purple box), the long/short prices, which had not previously been moved, should also be shifted down—from above 574 last week to above 555.

STAR 50 (daily chart, as of 260719) 07.09 has continued falling since the failed long entry was stopped out

The decline accelerated; the long/short line is placed below 1950.

Overall, KOSPI, SK Hynix, SOXX, and STAR 50 are all currently in bearish territory. For technology bulls, attempting another long position should at least wait until they move back above the long/short line. Blindly buying the dip is not a rational choice, because you have no sound basis for managing entries and exits. You may indeed buy at the bottom, but you may also buy halfway down. Any profits or losses here would come from gambling: those who win and survive will be celebrated, while those who die will simply be gone, and nobody will care.

..

IBM (daily chart, as of 260719)

Regarding second-quarter results, TSMC raised its revenue growth guidance for 26 to above 40%. After ASML reported results, market discussion focused on FY1–FY3 earnings revisions of 15%–30%. But TSMC and ASML both saw post-results trading that bought the expectation and sold the fact. IBM, meanwhile, suffered its worst single-day performance in more than two decades, after major contracts were delayed and its consulting business fell short of expectations that had already been lowered. The market still has faith in AI capital spending, while the margins of large CSP will be a more crucial test.

This phenomenon is more a consequence of so-called peak expectations: exceptionally strong numbers can instead trigger a sharp reversal. The market had initially viewed the results as the next bullish catalyst, but once strong results actually arrived, attention immediately shifted to the second half of the year. The question thus shifted from earnings to valuation multiples. So far, the gains in beneficiaries of AI spending have indeed been supported by earnings, and the investment cycle has not clearly slowed; but as the second-quarter earnings season passes, the second-order change in EPS growth will matter more.

Earnings estimates have continued to rise recently, even as share prices have pulled back substantially

Kimi K3 represents another narrative shock. Wall Street discussions have focused on how Chinese labs, unable to replicate the West's large-scale pretraining, are using architecture, synthetic data, reinforcement learning, and post-training to close the gap substantially. This does not prove that scaling laws have failed, but it does show that scaling up pretraining is no longer the only game in town, and the economic returns on additional computing power need to be demonstrated anew.

PANW (daily chart, as of 260719)

Meanwhile, as semiconductor and memory stocks in AI broke down, security and data infrastructure software names such as CRWD, PANW, SNOW, and NET continued to perform strongly, The rationale is that they benefit from both GenAI and inference, while having less exposure to semiconductor bottlenecks or the convexity of models. By the same token, if hardware rebounds, capital may loosen its grip on these names and flow out.

CRWD (daily chart, as of 260719)

SNOW (daily chart, as of 260719)

NET (daily chart, as of 260719)

This is still the view discussed consistently in previous weekly notes: capital expenditure, the core driver, will not turn sharply on a dime. That is the fundamental reason the entire tech chain will not simply come to an abrupt halt, but financing pressure is indeed building. Since early 6, AI core issuers have brought roughly 1300 billion dollars of bond supply to the market; 2026 has already seen 10 investment-grade new bond issues of more than 200 billion dollars, compared with just 11 in total over the preceding seven years, of which 9 came from TMT. META announced plans to build data centers in Louisiana and Canada.

Supply is at an unprecedented scale and is already showing marginal signs of strain. Management must prove that spending is paying off; the fact that spending itself is not declining cannot substitute for evidence of returns.According to a Bank of America survey, 61% of global fund managers believe hyperscalers 2026 will not cut capital expenditure before year-end. Related spending is expected to rise from 4120 billion dollars in 2025 to 7690 billion dollars in 2026 and 9670 billion dollars in 2027. However, Oracle CDS and investment-grade technology bond spreads have already widened.

MAGS/SOX (daily chart, as of 260719)

The performance of going long MAGS versus SOX reflects market pricing of capital expenditure cuts;The greater risk scenario is that even as further spending cuts are priced in, MAGS still fails to break above its previous high of 71 dollars. At that point, pressure on growth and asset prices would spread further to banks, brokerages, and industrials.

MAGS (daily chart, as of 260719)

Political opposition to data centers is also a real, bipartisan construction risk. This follows on from last week's weekly note on data center construction.On 7 14, an executive order in New York State paused state environmental permits for new projects of 50 MW or more for up to one year and called for an assessment of their effects on energy, water use, and air quality. Approval is possible, but the likelihood of it being signed before 11 is extremely low.

Beyond the rhetoric, the real constraints on data center projects are local-level factors and project economics. Across the United States, 40 states have 155 municipal moratorium measures, directly affecting site selection and project starts;

Virginia, Texas, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Georgia, which have the most data centers, have not generally imposed effective statewide construction bans. Texas is shifting a greater share of grid upgrade costs to large-load customers, while other states are narrowing tax incentives. Policymakers are pushing to limit the transfer of costs to ordinary electricity users.

All of this will lead different stakeholders to respond in more complex ways.

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Three. Global Equities

Figure: positioning map

Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; gold-edged dots indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260719)

Ranking of gains over the past week (260719)

Keep an eye on unusual market moves and shifts in market regimes, What matters is 1) marginal change and the 2) threshold.

Every trend begins with an anomaly, and every trend must pass through a threshold break.

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Four. U.S. Equity Market

SPX (daily chart, as of 260719)

Since we 6.3 turned SPX from long to short, it has been firmly and precisely held back by the long-short line, until it breaks through It is hard for the U.S. session to produce a truly significant market move. What I mean is that sectors other than technology are also unlikely to see a genuine, sustained primary uptrend that investors can join.

Figure: positioning map

Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; gold-edged dots indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260719)

Top performers over the past week (as of 260719)

GS’s high-beta momentum index has fallen from its peak on 6 month 22 day, 847.35, to around 569.24. Its maximum drawdown is about 33%, and its year-to-date gain has dropped from a peak of more than 60% to around 12%%, putting it below its annual moving average. The drawdown is roughly comparable to that from late 2022 to early 2023.

This sharp deleveraging is a sign that the drawdown is entering its latter half. In this situation, momentum may start to stabilize and find a short-term bottom next week, but the high-volatility market environment will persist for longer.

Price capitulation comes before positioning capitulation; a truly reliable condition for buying back in requires a reset in positioning.

Chart: Momentum Environment and Tradability

US Momentum Environment (as of 260719). Above the green line is our home turf; above the yellow line, we can keep trading. Below the yellow line, and especially below the red line, is our weak zone, so avoid it.

Despite the continued decline, the momentum environment in the U.S. session remains above the yellow line; at the same time, a group of hedge funds remain bullish;Historically, hedge funds have generally been fairly accurate in judging market direction. With prices now lower, their positioning remains tilted long, which is a more favorable signal.

Based on historical samples, under current conditions momentum has risen by an average of 5.5% over the next month and 12.3% over the next three months. By contrast, when the indicator peaked at the end of 6, the corresponding historical average returns were a decline of 2.1% over the next month and a decline of 10.4% over the next three months.

MEME (daily chart, as of 260719)

...

On the currency front, although 6 month CPI and PPI were clearly soft and the pressure for an immediate rate hike in 7 month eased, the market has begun to price in a hawkish path. After one-off factors are excluded, underlying inflation remains clearly above target. The market has already priced in close to 40–50bp in rate hikes, but it would take at least 75bp for genuine tightening of financial conditions to have a real impact on markets.

The market is currently pricing in roughly one and a half rate hikes over the next three quarters, but at this point that is precisely the least likely path to materialize.The debate should not be about whether the Fed ultimately raises rates once or twice. It should be about either no rate hikes or the start of a full cycle, which typically includes at least three hikes. Easing is the less likely branch. Therefore, The policy shock is effectively bimodal, and its mean corresponds to a very low probability of being realized. New marginal information will quickly push pricing toward one extreme of the two peaks; this week’s pricing after soft CPI is an example;The rates market is also becoming increasingly sensitive to oil prices. With an agreement in the Middle East highly fragile, the front end of the yield curve should remain highly volatile.

Warsh may cite revisions to the 9 month core PCE methodology and the fading impact of tariffs from the year-over-year comparison base as reasons not to raise rates. But if the market concludes that underlying inflation has not subsided, he will lose the credibility he gained from his hawkish stance in 6 month. The yield curve will steepen, and long-end inflation breakevens will price in a sustained overshoot.

Overall, this year will be a pivotal year for Warsh’s career,; raising rates now would be seen as taking a tough stance on the inflation overshoot under Powell, strengthening his credibility as a politically independent inflation hawk. If he does not raise rates this year and inflation does not fall next year, he will have to take responsibility for the inflation problem and may be seen as behind the curve. From the standpoint of self-interest, he is inclined to act.

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Five. FX: Korean Won and U.S. Dollar

The Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its first hike since 2023, and signaled further action. The real policy rate is still around -45 basis points, but the won’s strength shows that financial conditions are beginning to tighten.

Friends who have been reading the weekly report closely should remember that we discussed our concerns about this issue about a month ago:

The Korean won’s decline could bring broader cross-asset implications (seeWeekly 260614）

USDKRW (daily chart, as of 260719), overlaid with KOSPI

In fact, KOSPI’s decline did begin in sync with the won’s movement. This is also something that needs cross-asset confirmation—the same point Planet has made many, many times:

Why does cross-asset logic matter? Because within a single market, you have no pricing anchor.

Those working in tech should not only read the discussion of tech proxies in the first section, but also keep a close eye on KRW’s movement.

DXY (hourly chart, as of 260719)

It has been a long time since we last showed a chart of the US Dollar Index. Even so, it continues to move steadily along the path we previously expected, and, after breaking free of 98.8’s stickiness, has now returned to the track of that upward-sloping red line.

The reason for bringing it up again is that the one-month implied volatility of DXY-weighted options has fallen below 5.50, its lowest level since 2021 apart from a brief Christmas low in 2025. Such low volatility is highly abnormal when the US-Iran conflict is escalating again and the market is once more discussing Fed tightening.

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VI. China Market

Chart: Hang Seng Tech

HSTECH (daily chart, as of 260719)

For Hang Seng Tech, the gold line precisely blocked the rebound; after the price broke below Planet’s previously planned take-profit level, we closed the position and exited.For now, going long again would at least require the price to move above 4910.

Chart: Momentum Environment and Tradability

CN Momentum Environment (as of 260719). Above the green line is our home turf; above the yellow line, we can continue trading. A break below the yellow line, and especially below the red line, marks our weak zone, which we avoid.

Figure: positioning map

Red indicates a consensus short position, green a consensus long position, and gray a lack of consensus; gold-edged dots indicate movement toward the upper right (as of 260719)

Basket moving up and to the right (as of 260719)

...

Performance rankings over the past week (as of 260719)

You can make money in both bull and bear markets. The market where you cannot make money is one without logic. Without logic, price cannot unfold naturally; without a natural price move, there is no trend. Profits come only from smooth trends, whether long or short.

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VI. Precious Metals

Chart: Gold

CMX gold (daily chart, as of 260712)

The three-month correlation between gold and crude oil has fallen to around -0.45, close to the opposite extreme last seen in 35. Gold remains under pressure from hawkish forces; there is not much else to say.The bull-bear line has edged lower, moving to just above 4110. There is a lot that others outside do not know about why prices move, why they stop, and where they stop—you should know these things.

The only change is Here, we’re seeing funds begin to try re-leveraging Keep an eye on it yourself.

Price is still the most important thing, followed by cross-validation. There’s nothing to rush; don’t be impatient.

Chart: Silver

CMX Silver (daily chart, as of 260719)

Silver has made a new low. Given the evidence for and against, those who have been repeatedly trying to buy the dip over the past period may really not be feeling very good now. Don’t rush. Continue moving the short position’s take-profit level lower, to above 59.

Seven. Alternative Assets

Gold (daily chart, as of 260719)

The stop-loss level has been raised slightly.

Note: Please observe the laws and regulations of your region and allocate personal assets only within the scope of compliance. This content is intended only for users in certain overseas regions.

Eight. Soft commodities (El Niño): cocoa, coffee, soybeans, raw sugar, rice

Another successful bet this year.

Chart: Cocoa, taking profits

Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260719)

The take-profit price was touched. Exit by taking profits, as planned in the previous weekly report.Trading is a very boring activity. Find your entertainment outside the market. The more money you make, the more humble you should be; try to keep yourself as close to the ground as possible.

To turn bullish again, price needs to get back above the red line.

Chart: Coffee, breakout above the upper boundary

Coffee (daily chart, as of 260719)

The bottom-fractal reversal trade mentioned in the previous weekly report has stalled in its rise. For now, do not move the take-profit level.

Chart: Soybeans, breakout above the upper boundary

Soybeans, The previous weekly report’s plan

Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260719)

Broke out as expected; the take-profit level has been moved up.

Chart: Raw sugar

Raw sugar (daily chart, as of 260719)

It remains pinned between the white lines. Watch for a breakout in either direction.

...

Chart: Rice

Rice (daily chart, as of 260719)

Rice is nearing the T1 target price; the take-profit level continues to move up (see the red line on the chart)...

Chart: Wheat

Wheat (daily chart, as of 260719)

Wheat: the T1 target price has stalled.

Nine. Crude oil-related

Many friends have sent private messages strongly expressing a desire for updates on oil trades, so I’ll continue to provide some updates on crude oil.This section won’t be updated indefinitely; please understand.

BRN (daily chart, as of 260719)

CL (daily chart, as of 260719)

HO (daily chart, as of 260719)

RB (daily chart, as of 260719)

Just make sure you have a sound basis for entering and exiting.

I’m grateful for your support, but I’m not important, nor do I have any intention of becoming famous. I prefer to keep my head down; the Planet is for our own internal content, which we try not to share externally.

Thank you all here. I’m grateful to all my friends.

...

(End of article)

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Note: All content in this document is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice, nor does it serve as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on such information as the basis for decision-making.