February fourteenth, two thousand twenty-six
Investment Framework and Trading Mindset (IV): Multi-Timeframe System
Investment Framework and Trading Mindset (Four): Multi-Timeframe Trend Identification System
Author: Ariston
“See the pinned post on the Planet for details on how to add us as a friend.”
In the Cross-Market Asset Strategy Notes, we will gradually add more explanations of our own investment/trading system(Take what you need and choose what works for you. The ultimate goal is to help every reader develop a framework suited to them personally.)...
I wonder whether everyone will like this. We are also considering starting a series of updates on introductory macro, introductory technical analysis, and Q&A collections from each of the smaller Planets; if you like the idea, please give it a like to let us know.
...This article explains the logic behind the multi-timeframe dataset that the Planet is about to launch
I. Cross-Asset: Global Asset Status Dashboard (Core Dataset) + China-U.S. Macro ETF Status Dashboard (Betting Tool)
Figure: This week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. The Cross-Market Asset Strategy Notes (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=vega-trading) will provide three-timeframe status data for 1) global asset classes, and a selected set of major ETF status data for 2) the China and U.S. markets. This is our own pool of tools for making macro bets
Figure: Example (Trend Identification—Three-Timeframe Global Asset Status Dashboard [Core Dataset]); only the first 30 rows are shown here
Figure: Example (Trend Identification—Three-Timeframe China-U.S. Macro ETF Status Dashboard [Betting Tool]); only the first 30 rows are shown here
II. Hong Kong Dragon: Mainland Market Status Dashboard (Fundamental Screening)
Figure: This week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. Hong Kong Dragon Asia (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies) will provide three-timeframe status data for individual mainland-market stocks (after two rounds of screening)
Figure: Example (Trend Identification—Mainland Market Status Dashboard [Fundamental Screening]); only the first 30 rows are shown here
III. Xingzhi: U.S. Stock Market Status Dashboard (Fundamental Screening)
Figure: This week, we will begin synchronizing multi-timeframe data for global markets. Xingzhi U.S. Stocks (https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies) will provide three-timeframe status data for individual U.S. stocks (after two rounds of screening)
Figure: Example (Trend Identification—U.S. Stock Market Status Dashboard [Fundamental Screening]); only the first 30 rows are shown here
IV.Fundamental Principles and Thoughts on the Framework
Developing an edge in the market is a continuous and lengthy process; market conditions are constantly evolving.For an individual participant, how to conduct clear and effective market monitoring during the decision-making stage before taking action will form 90% of the decision-making framework. This is the process of listening to price, because the pricing outcome is the only real feedback (not the narrative, not the judgment—price is).
A noble person plans around the timing and acts accordingly, going with the trend; a skilled warrior exploits the prevailing momentum and guides it to their advantage.
Respecting the market means first understanding its state: dance along when the market dances (trend), and rest with it when it rests (quiet). Winners earn only from trends and from taking profits and cutting losses. You must strive to position yourself within a trend and exit to take profits before your selling price falls below your buying price.
Market structure often develops through the alternating sequence of directional moves and non-directional ranges. The latter are periods when the market rests, digesting prior price movements and building momentum for the next expansion in range. This reflects the subtle interaction of buying and selling forces as they move between equilibrium and disequilibrium. It is the essence of the market(not just the secondary market; this applies wherever buying and selling take place)and of the price movements observed by others(Others observe price movements; we focus on the more fundamental structure behind them!)
Most of the time, the market is in a state of random fluctuation (the perfect market of orthodox financial theory, where price movement closely approximates a random-walk model). In this situation, momentum and resistance balance each other, and prices fluctuate around certain levels...
For a small portion of the time (the reason is unimportant), momentum may overcome resistance, producing an Impulse Move. Once an impulse move gains wider acceptance among investors, it can develop into the momentum of a trend state (Momentum Move), resulting in an expansion in range...
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The multi-timeframe trend identification system combines monthly (long-term state) (the reference timeframe for Position Holders), weekly (mid-term state) (the execution timeframe for Position Holders and the reference timeframe for Swing Traders), and daily (short-term state) (the execution timeframe for Swing Traders and the reference timeframe for Day Traders) timeframes, in order to create a practical market-monitoring system that is effective (positive expected outcomes), stable (effective over the long term), and sensitive (able to identify state changes at the earliest opportunity, so one can assess conditions and enter or exit appropriately).
The dashboard consists of two basic components: three states and three timeframes, yielding the following nine combinations:
1) Daily uptrend state (X_D_Trend_State=1)
2) Daily downtrend state (X_D_Trend_State=-1)
3) Daily quiet, trendless state (X_D_Trend_State=0)
4) Weekly uptrend state (X_W_Trend_State=1)
5) Weekly downtrend state (X_W_Trend_State=-1)
6) Weekly quiet, trendless state (X_W_Trend_State=0)
7) Monthly uptrend state (X_M_Trend_State=1)
8) Monthly downtrend state (X_M_Trend_State=-1)
9) Monthly quiet, trendless state (X_M_Trend_State=0)
Uptrends are marked green on the dashboard, downtrends red, and quiet states yellow.
Figure: Three timeframes, three states, three colors
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Beyond this, the process from understanding to application, from knowing to doing, is especially important. It is a perilous leap on which everything depends:
Figure: A correct viewpoint does not automatically lead to correct action, nor does it automatically produce the expected result
Therefore, beyond answering “what” the state is, the dashboard goes further and answers “for how long.” It helps participants act immediately on what they know: enter as soon as a trend begins and exit just as promptly when it ends...
Great traders lead when conditions are favorable, and are the first to defect when the tide turns.
You can find the state-duration columns immediately after the daily, weekly, and monthly state columns on the dashboard:
1) X_D_State_Bars
2) X_W_State_Bars
3) X_Y_State_Bars
The state-duration figures 1 are extremely important. One gives rise to two, two to three; 1 is the starting point for every state.This is where you lead when conditions are favorable, and where you defect when the tide turns. This is where you act, with a clear basis for entering and exiting.
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1
Find 1, and you have found the asset undergoing a structural move right now.
We do not predict; we follow—but we aim to be the first to follow, staying ahead of everyone (Mr. Market, consensus, and the curve).
Ahead of the curve (the technical analysts) (we have never thought of ourselves as the same as them, because it is their money we aim to make) (while being X candlesticks faster than they are, we must not only be faster but also more accurate); ahead of Mr. Market (the value investors) (by identifying and cross-validating states on longer timeframes, we can spot undervalued assets better than those who call themselves value investors, and act with greater discipline at better times [key turning points]); and ahead of consensus (the noise and narrative backdrop of retail market participants and buy- and sell-side analysts) (we are more humble than those who try to predict the market like fortune-tellers. We respect the market and listen only to the market itself).
Figure: Strive to “spot it early”—some people spend a lifetime trying...
V. How to Use (01): Use the Three-Timeframe Trend Identification Status Dashboard to Find Assets with Short-Timeframe Reversals
The first way to use it is to filter for assets with a daily 1 (uptrend) state, then sort State Bars (the duration of the current state) from shortest to longest.These are assets where a short-timeframe trend reversal has just occurred. The weekly and monthly states provide a clearer picture; generally, for right-side trading, it is best if both the weekly and monthly states are green.
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (global asset data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (mainland market data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (U.S. stock market data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
Figure: Results filtered for a daily state duration of 1 (China-U.S. ETF data) + duration sorted from shortest to longest
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VI. How to Use (02): Use the Three-Timeframe Trend Identification Status Dashboard to Find Left-Side and Right-Side Bets
1) For left-side bets, the daily state is green (a short-term reversal signal has begun), the weekly state is quiet and yellow (in a quiet phase), and the monthly state is red (in a downtrend).This is an early reversal signal and the first stage of a left-side entry;
Figure: Filter for a green daily state (short-term reversal signal has begun), a quiet yellow weekly state (in a quiet phase), and a red monthly state (downtrend)
(global asset data)
Figure: Filter for a green daily state (short-term reversal signal has begun), a quiet yellow weekly state (in a quiet phase), and a red monthly state (downtrend)
(U.S. stock market data)
2) As the weekly state turns green (quiet to uptrend) and the monthly state turns yellow (downtrend to quiet), this is the second stage, when a left-side entry transitions to a right-side entry;
Figure: Filter for a green daily state, a green weekly state (quiet to uptrend), and a yellow monthly state (downtrend to quiet) + daily timeframe sorted ascending from 1 (to find those just starting)
(mainland market data)
Figure: Filter for a green daily state, a green weekly state (quiet to uptrend), and a yellow monthly state (downtrend to quiet) + daily timeframe sorted ascending from 1 (to find those just starting)
(global asset data)
3）Once all timeframes turn green, the asset has entered the main right-side uptrend;
Figure: Green across all timeframes (major right-side trend) + daily timeframe sorted ascending from 1 (to find those just starting)
(global asset data)
Note: Those familiar with the market may suddenly see the picture here. You will notice many familiar names, such as CNYUSD (already 48 trading days into a major right-side trend), such as M2K, and Peso.For those doing macro or multi-asset research, the dashboard also uses data to show you which narratives are genuinely taking hold, so you can stay ahead not only of the market but also of your peers...
4) When a daily pullback within a major uptrend or an uptrend backdrop comes to an end as the daily state turns yellow (green to yellow/red to yellow):
Figure: The major uptrend pauses (green to yellow), or a daily pullback within an uptrend backdrop ends (red to yellow) + daily timeframe sorted ascending from 1 (to find those just starting)
(global asset data)
5) Subsequently, with the weekly and monthly states green, a daily red-to-yellow or yellow-to-green transition marks a window to buy into an uptrend on a pullback...
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Another note: For buy-side professionals, the China-U.S. ETF dashboard is a treasure trove; the mainland market and U.S. stock market dashboards are even more valuable for analysts covering those respective markets. They can help you stay ahead not only of the market but also of your peers.Use them proficiently, and compared with others who lack a clear basis for entering or exiting, have a narrow perspective, and keep their heads down doing their work... you will stand out... and you will stand out quickly...
VII.How to Use (03): Use the Three-Timeframe Trend Identification Status Dashboard to Avoid Bottom-Fishing Too Early
The key to left-side bets is avoiding the clever-sounding but premature attempt to call a bottom. You may buy halfway down (or even while the market is still near the top), or endure a long period of downward consolidation that wears down your resolve and wastes capital...
Avoiding every asset with a red weekly state (downtrend) can help you sidestep all trap-like mid-term trends...
Figure: The weekly (mid-term) and monthly (long-term) states are still red; entering now could mean buying halfway down
(mainland market data)
Figure: The weekly (mid-term) and monthly (long-term) states are still red; entering now could mean buying halfway down
(global asset data)
Figure: The weekly (mid-term) and monthly (long-term) states are still red; entering now could mean buying halfway down
(U.S. stock market data)
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VIII.How to Use (0N)...
There is much more beyond this. We welcome everyone to explore further, and are also happy to receive direct messages with feedback and ideas for use.
Wishing everyone a happy Lunar New Year in advance!
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We ask the traders in our trading room to publish a single-market note approximately every 2 days, covering U.S. stocks, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and commodities. We will select the better ones to post in the corresponding smaller Planets (we also include some of our own commentary, though we do take steps to anonymize it).
If interested, subscribe as needed (only if you need it; don't waste your money):
U.S. stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=us-strategies(Xingzhi)
A-shares and Hong Kong stocks:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=asia-strategies(Hong Kong Dragon)
Commodities:https://www.meridianresearch.app/home?product=commodity-strategies(Geocore)
As for the level of detail, we will probably go as far as the industry level. On the mainland, we will try to avoid crowding; if we write in too much detail, someone may get in ahead of us. We may be able to be more specific on U.S. stocks, but readers will still need to think things through and fill in the gaps themselves.These are not trades you can simply copy!
The overall win rate recently has been pretty good.
I wonder whether everyone likes this new Notes format. If you think something else would be better, please leave a like to let us know. We will decide whether to continue with this kind of content or return to the previous column format based on the feedback we receive.
Wishing you all the best.
2026.02.14
Note: Everything in this article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and should not be taken as a basis for any laws, regulations, or regulatory policies. Investors should not use or rely on this information as a basis for making decisions.