• ...profits come only from places worth taking a position...

• ...objective trend lines are necessarily drawn along the balance of bullish and bearish forces...

• ...behind behavior are living, thinking people, and people change when they want to make money...

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Note: By reading, subscribing to, browsing, sharing, saving, or using the contents of this Planet in any way, you are deemed to have fully read, understood, and agreed to this disclaimer. If you do not agree, please stop using it immediately and leave. All content on this Planet is solely for personal research, information collation, and learning and discussion. It does not constitute any investment advice, recommendation to buy or sell, offer or invitation, promise of returns, asset management service, or investment advisory service. Nor does reading, subscribing, interacting, or using the content create any legal relationship such as that of client, principal, trustee, or adviser. The content does not take into account any recipient’s financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, or suitability requirements. Recipients should verify the information themselves, make independent assessments and decisions, and bear the investment risks and consequences themselves. The information in this text may come from public sources, third-party data, market information, personal judgments, or model analysis, and may be delayed, incomplete, incorrect, biased, or no longer valid. The author does not guarantee its authenticity, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability. Past performance, historical examples, backtest results, or correct calls do not indicate future performance or constitute a guarantee of returns. Without permission, you may not copy, take screenshots or screen recordings, share, adapt, compile, or use the content for stock recommendations, fundraising, managing money on behalf of others, commercial promotion, or other such purposes. Any consequences arising from these actions shall be borne by the persons responsible!

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I. Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum & Trendline Drawing and Tacit Knowledge

Chart: The three previous calls: an expanding decline, a short-term low, and a rejection and reversal

CMXgold (intraday chart, through 260628): the reversal after the low was confirmed was precisely turned back at the bull-bear line

After being precisely stopped at the bull-bear line given on the Planet, 4388 gold moved smoothly lower and made a new low, then rebounded to the low of the previous range near the end of this week's trading.

CMXgold (daily chart, through 260628): price is consolidating around the short-selling target

As for why it rebounded to this level, there is also an explanation—one that cannot be seen from the outside, but which we can know, because this is the T1 target price following the daily-chart breakdown and bearish reversal on 5 month 14 day; see the chart above.That is roughly the situation for now.The bull-bear line has moved from 4388 in last week's newsletter to 4216. If it can break through 4216, the decline will pause for the time being, and the daily-chart gold short position should be closed; as for another substantial move higher, momentum needs to turn positive again. See“Gold enters its third decline since 22 ”。

Chart: As of now, downside momentum continues to expand after the marked point

CMXgold's price momentum (daily chart, through 260628) has still not improved as of now

Once price starts moving, only price itself determines what happens. Before key levels are broken, all news is old news and all events are “picking up scraps” (ultra-short-term scalping, picking up sesame seeds while losing the watermelon). Profits come only from places worth taking a position. You can clearly judge very micro-level market structure and direction, but that does not mean you have to trade it. Sit well; demand an outsized return for every effort.

Chart: Silver's marked point is complete; the breakdown is confirmed

CMXsilver (daily chart, through 260628): momentum turns negative

Silver’s close confirms that momentum has turned negative. The bull-bear line has moved from above 69.9 last week to above 65.3; this is the price at which the gold line we drew a few months ago confirmed silver’s rejection of an upward move.

I have to make these microstructure updates to fulfill my commitment to all of you who pay for this content; it’s something I have to do. Your time is much more valuable than mine. Just focus on the things that matter or that you genuinely need, and take what you need. Don’t keep reinventing the wheel; I’ll take care of the dirty, tedious work for all of you.

Chart: Platinum looks basically the same as silver, with the same descending gold line

NMX platinum (daily chart, as of 260628): momentum turns negative

The same descending gold line: platinum’s bull-bear line is also above 1680, at the gold line. As long as the bull-bear line is not breached, it will keep moving along this gold line on the X-axis (time) and Y-axis (price). The problem with trend lines is that everyone draws them differently and can draw them however they like; we need to get back to fundamentals. The charting tool on the platform started coloring candlesticks about two weeks ago. The coloring itself has no particular significance; it just makes the bars easier to read. You can clearly see the color changes near the descending gold line and the key horizontal line, An objective trend line must follow the balance of bull and bear forces. This may sound rather abstract, but it is indeed the case; this is about as far as words can take us Highs and lows, OHLC—that’s getting fixated on appearances. This takes practice and understanding. Look at enough charts—hundreds each day, for hundreds of days—and you will naturally be able to see what each side is doing and where the dividing line lies.

It is very difficult to quantify and express as a mathematical formula, because it really is a matter of perception.

It is not intuition but perception, or tacit, implicit knowledge. I have been trying to turn this perception, developed through repeated practice, into a mathematical expression. Many outstanding traders have tried as well, but it really is difficult to express. Any mathematical construction will inevitably lose, to some extent, those fuzzy boundaries that are tacitly understood. At least I still cannot do it, and I have not seen anyone else succeed. Perhaps in the future AI there will be a way, but once such a thing truly exists, it will also stop working. The moment it is observed, the behavior of the forces themselves will change, because behind that behavior are living people with minds of their own, not code and formulas. People change when they want to make money; they may even change so much that they no longer seem to be the same species.

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Two. Technology trading

Chart: Another attempt to go long fails; stopped out

SOXX (daily chart, as of 260628)

The attempt to go long again in technology trading ended in failure. The loss was reasonable, because after the dollar index turned bearish at 6.3, it never returned to the bull zone, Going long in a bear zone, without confirmation from other markets:

SPX (daily chart, as of 260628). Turned bearish on day 6.3 and has not returned to the bull zone since

I went long again because I didn’t want to miss the final tail-end move in technology. This action was not entirely rational; there was no corroboration for another move up, and the result indeed fell short of expectations. I was a bit greedy.

The S&P index has continued to fall since turning bearish at 6.3, and the position’s beauty contest status has also completed a full round trip.As you can see at the top of the chart above, the lagging status ended on 4 month 8 day, shifted to leading status on 4 month 20 day, changed from leading to weakening on 6 month 8 day, and then changed from weakening to lagging on 6 month 25 day.

Chart: Watch the key price level

See also“Why the Decline”

As of now, SPX is still within the top range, There has been no substantive break below it, so the bull-bear line should not move It remains near 7584, calculated on day 6.3. If it breaks below this top range next week, we will begin moving it downward. All you need to do is keep an eye on this level.

Chart: The Korean index pullback precisely touched the price level given in Planet Weekly 14 days ago

See the red box on the chart; details follow“26-06-14 Ari’s Weekly Wrap》

The Korean index pulled back, precisely touching the price level (gold line) in Planet Weekly 14 days ago:

Chart: The Korean index long position triggered its stop and exited as planned

Long position exited; details follow“26-06-14 Ari’s Weekly Wrap》

Is this a top? Hard to say, because the price is currently supported precisely by the gold line, almost to the tick. But if it breaks below here, a pullback is more likely, reshaping the uptrend into a top rectangular range.Place the short-position stop-loss at the breakeven point of the entry, and be sure to use SO to avoid a stop run.

According to the weekly dated 6 month 14 day“SK Hynix estimated price”The re-entered Hynix long position hit its planned price intraday on 23 day, and exited to take profits.

Given that the Korean index has also entered bearish territory and is near the yellow line (the maximum-risk level), we have now disabled automated execution for all technology proxy models. We will not open any new positions until the market indicates its next direction, and will remain on the sidelines.

SK Hynix (daily chart, as of 260628), exited to take profits

Several U.S. market instruments in the 6 month 14 day weekly remain in bullish territory. For these, stop-losses need to be tightened and moved higher; see the chart below. Likewise, if these positions trigger a take-profit exit next week, automated model execution will be disabled, and no further positions will be opened until the direction is clear.

INTC (daily chart, as of 260628), moved the stop-loss higher, from above 115 last week to above 121

AMD (daily chart, as of 260628), moved the stop-loss higher, from above 488 last week to above 512

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III. Global equities: U.S. index, China index

Chart: Major market positioning from a global equities perspective

Red and green indicate the daily bullish or bearish bias; gray indicates disagreement among systems (as of 260628). Explanation of the positioning chart:Explanation one、Explanation two

From a global equities perspective, in the state of Only US small caps, China’s STAR Market, and India remain Leading and unanimously long.In fact, ever since we confirmed in Planet that the Chinese market had turned long again, not just the STAR Market: if we aggregate purely by region, the entire Chinese market has still been the biggest gainer globally over the past week of trading.

US small caps were the only index in the entire US market to close higher over the past week, consistent with what we observed in the small-cap stock surge section.

Figure: The surge in small-cap stocks

See:Original post

IWM/SPX (daily chart, as of 260628) has broken through

Figure: China’s STAR Market 50 becomes a global leader

China’s STAR Market 50 (daily chart, as of 260628) hits a new high

Since going long again, China’s STAR Market 50 has made another new high; the take-profit level has moved from 1725 last week to above 1886.

Figure: China’s STAR Market 50 becomes a global leader, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices fall back into bearish territory

Global equity trades: return rankings over the past 5 trading days (China’s STAR Market becomes the global leader)

Long position in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices closed (daily chart, as of 260628)

The STAR Market is Leading, while the long positions in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices are closed—the divergence is clear. Technology remains the undisputed leading theme; we look forward to other themes taking over, but at least for now, we’ll have to wait a little longer.

Figure: US equity futures

NQ (daily chart, as of 260628)

ES (daily chart, as of 260628)

US market ES and NQ are both nearing key horizontal levels; a break below would trigger a decline.

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IV. US market

Chart: Positioning in U.S. market internals from an industry perspective

Red and green indicate the daily bullish or bearish bias; gray indicates disagreement among systems (as of 260628). Explanation of the positioning chart:Explanation one、Explanation two

The number of U.S. market internals with consensus long positioning is dwindling, and The market seems to be hoping that biotech/pharma can take over during this lull as technology's frenzied trading runs out of steam (at least providing support for a while):

Industries with the strongest gains over the past 5 trading days

Chart: Positioning in U.S. market internals from a basket perspective

Baskets with the strongest gains over the past 5 trading days

Likewise, biotech/pharma account for the vast majority.

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Five. China market

Chart: Momentum Environment (mainland China)

Above the green line is our home-court advantage; above the yellow-line zone, the signals remain valid; below the red line, the overall data set will be invalidated (as of 260628)

Chart: Positioning in China market internals from a basket perspective

Red and green indicate the daily bullish or bearish bias; gray indicates disagreement among systems (as of 260628). Explanation of the positioning chart:Explanation one、Explanation two

Compared with the U.S. market, actually, there are far more themes in the mainland market that fall within the tradable range.

Baskets with the strongest gains over the past 5 trading days

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Six. Alternative assets

Chart: Still in bearish territory

Gold (daily chart, as of 260621)

Still in bearish territory; the long-short line has moved from above 66.3k last week to above 63.1k.

There is no need to rush to buy the dip before the price itself tells you it has bottomed.

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Seven. Soft commodities: cocoa, coffee, soybeans

Chart: Cocoa is beginning to show momentum signals and is attempting to turn bullish

Cocoa (daily chart, as of 260621)

Cocoa's downward momentum has been completely exhausted since March; it is now showing signals, and once these are complete, they may lead to another bullish breakout. The current long-side take-profit level is 4589.

Chart: Coffee has returned to its previous trading range

Coffee (daily chart, as of 260621)

Coffee has formed a bottom fractal reversal and returned to its previous trading range. Tighten the take-profit level to the lower edge of the range.

Chart: Soybeans, attempting a breakout

Soybeans (daily chart, as of 260628)

Soybeans are attempting a breakout, but still have some way to go. You can keep an eye on it if you wish.

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Thank you all for your support. I’m grateful to all my friends.

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