ES1!6705.5 was mostly negative overnight as odds of a U.S. government shutdown ticked higher after Trump's meeting with congressional leaders failed to produce a deal. The actual macro hit from a shutdown is small—benefits, interest, and tax collection continue—but the market effect is a likely NFP delay and a broader data blackout, leaving the tape to trade off PMIs, jobless claims, and ADP.
SPX6661.21 is on pace for one of the best Septembers since 2010, and September is historically the worst-performing month. October–December is typically a strong stretch, with November the second-best month of the year over the past 20 years, behind only July. The broader backdrop is an easing shift from the Fed that acts as insurance against a soft patch. The key risk is a deeper labor slowdown—if that materializes, rates and the dollar can reprice lower and equity vol picks up. So far the labor market has cooled, not cracked. The longer growth holds with softer labor, the more the market will look past tariff noise toward 2026 tailwinds from fiscal support and lower rates, keeping the path open for equity upside.