SOX12,829 $NVDA $SOXX

NVDA, SOXX and KOSPI remain the bellwethers of this bull run. NVDA has yet to hold above 230, SOXX is approaching generational resistance around 580, and KOSPI has already shown how difficult it is to hold above 7.1K. These are the names and levels I am watching to judge whether the AI trade can carry the indices further.

SOX has followed the dot-com script almost exactly. I first showed you this chart back in June, before SOX peaked. So much for "this time is different." If it continues to follow that script, my call for a major swing top in the coming weeks should play out. I still expect NDX and SPX to print new ATHs, but I do not expect SOXX to follow by printing a fresh ATH.

That said, 580 should be very strong resistance. If SOXX takes it out alongside NVDA breaking above 230 and KOSPI above 7.1K, my thesis of an eventual collapse should weaken. Given the broader cross-asset technicals, an oversold rebound in Treasuries could well provide the push these three need to make the break. Stay vigilant.