US10Y has broken above the multi-year descending trendline and pushed toward 4.7%. Given the repeated whipsaws around this trendline, the break needs to hold. As long as US10Y stays above the trendline around 4.6%, the path remains open toward 4.8%, followed by 5%. A sustained move back below the descending trendline would put 4.4% back in focus.

US30Y is now testing the prior high around 5.2%. A sustained close above 5.2% would confirm the breakout and push long-end yields back into pre-GFC territory.