We went short SPX7,376.86 before the war started, called the bottom when SPX was trading around 6370, and warned of significant upside risk should a ceasefire deal be reached before Tuesday’s deadline. We turned bearish again this Thursday, shorting near the highs. I also posted an article on X yesterday regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations. View the translated version here.

A clean breach above the downtrend resistance around 6870 (ES1!7,402.00 = 6910) should invalidate my downside thesis and open the door to new ATHs. The risk-reward on this setup is too asymmetric to ignore.