The long end is less clean. US10Y remains below the multi-year downtrend resistance after the recent fakeout, while US30Y failed again around 5% and is now testing uptrend support. This is not a clean breakout yet, but it is also not a clean rejection unless those trend supports break decisively.

The setup remains binary. If 10Y reclaims the downtrend resistance and 30Y gets back above 5%, the bond market releases pressure again and long-duration equities are back in trouble. If 30Y breaks the uptrend and 10Y keeps failing below resistance, the immediate rate-pressure trade cools off. For now, the front end is hawkish, the long end is still trapped, and the next break decides the trade.