$AU10Y $AU30Y $CA10Y $CA30Y $DE10Y $DE30Y $FR10Y $FR30Y $GB10Y $GB30Y $IT10Y $IT30Y $JP10Y $JP30Y $KR10Y $KR30Y $US10Y $US30Y

Global yields are on an ominous path.

We began warning about rising U.S. yields as far back as 2022-2023. In December 2025, we broadened the warning to global yields. We intensified that warning in March after the Iran conflict began, as sovereign yields rose sharply across markets.

That warning has continued to play out.

Since the Initial Global Warning: December 23, 2025

Country	10Y: Dec. 23 → Latest	Change	30Y: Dec. 23 → Latest	Change
Australia	4.739% → 5.386%	+65bp	5.271% → 5.805%	+53bp
Canada	3.418% → 3.940%	+52bp	3.831% → 4.274%	+44bp
Germany	2.863% → 3.517%	+65bp	3.495% → 3.904%	+41bp
France	3.568% → 4.461%	+89bp	4.461% → 5.132%	+67bp
UK	4.514% → 5.347%	+83bp	5.246% → 5.914%	+67bp
Italy	3.518% → 4.350%	+83bp	4.414% → 5.034%	+62bp
Japan	2.052% → 2.987%	+94bp	3.428% → 4.057%	+63bp
South Korea	3.342% → 4.571%	+123bp	3.225% → 4.735%	+151bp
Average		+82bp		+69bp

We made the global warning more explicit in March after the Iran conflict began.

Since the Warning Intensified: March 13, 2026

Country	10Y: Mar. 13 → Latest	Change	30Y: Mar. 13 → Latest	Change
Australia	4.996% → 5.386%	+39bp	5.369% → 5.805%	+44bp
Canada	3.508% → 3.940%	+43bp	3.944% → 4.274%	+33bp
Germany	2.987% → 3.517%	+53bp	3.544% → 3.904%	+36bp
France	3.681% → 4.461%	+78bp	4.534% → 5.132%	+60bp
UK	4.836% → 5.347%	+51bp	5.501% → 5.914%	+41bp
Italy	3.796% → 4.350%	+55bp	4.588% → 5.034%	+45bp
Japan	2.248% → 2.987%	+74bp	3.527% → 4.057%	+53bp
South Korea	3.680% → 4.571%	+89bp	3.579% → 4.735%	+116bp
Average		+60bp		+54bp

The move is broad and synchronized, with sustained pressure across global long-end yields. U.S. Treasury yields remain the single most important market to monitor, but the global nature of the selloff makes the signal even more ominous.

AU10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

AU30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

CA10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

CA30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

DE10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

DE30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

FR10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

FR30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

GB10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

GB30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

IT10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

IT30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

JP10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

JP30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

KR10Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)

KR30Y (Daily, as of 2026-09-11)