Time is ticking. The triangle formation is coming to an end, and I expect the resolution to be violent. If it resolves to the upside, we will likely see a break above 120. If it resolves to the downside, it is likely targeting the low 80s.
Trump manipulated the market again this week as he TACOed on a publicly undisclosed, self-imposed deadline. Oil dumped and equities rallied ahead of the inventory data release, which showed the sharpest drop in inventories.

And now we have yet another Pakistan peace-deal headline. Our team has monitored and recorded over 70 Pakistan peace deals since the beginning of the war. If oil is set to explode to the downside, maybe it will be the 80th or 90th peace deal that finally turns out to be real. For now, we stand by our view that a peace deal is extremely hard to reach, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside for oil.

USDJPY159.121 has been grinding steadily higher, as we expected. I showed the uptrend-line support on the day the first intervention occurred, and this support has held so far. As mentioned before, the MOF must buy yen aggressively enough to push USDJPY below 155 and sustain it below that level for a few days for the market to pick up downside momentum. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. That said, as we approach 160, I advise caution. Japan remains one of the largest FX reserve holders in the world, and it still has enough firepower and willingness to intervene again. I would be taking partial profits as we approach 160. Ultimately, unless we see the Strait return to normal and/or a BOJ rate hike, USDJPY will, without doubt, surge above 160.

Equities have been resilient to higher oil and flashing inflation numbers, as the indices are now more concentrated than ever in one sector. While indices rallied to new ATHs, the majority of stocks were down, and more stocks were making new lows than new highs. Such extremes tend to happen right before historical crashes.

NVDA223.75 reported earnings after the close yesterday. Market reaction has been muted despite yet another earnings report with stunning headline numbers. Even if you are new to semis, you would know that NVDA is the most profitable company in this sector and has held this position for a few years. Risks are lurking in the dark as we dig deeper into NVDA's earnings. Despite posting $50 billion in cash flow from operating activities, NVDA's cash balance only grew by a measly $0.66 billion, while cash outflow from investing activities sat at $26 billion and cash outflow from financing activities sat at $21 billion. The majority of the outflows from investing and financing activities were money sent to customer companies that have agreed to use the money received to buy NVDA's chips. This is the circular financing we warned about 9 months ago. And it appears to be coming closer to an end, as there appears to be no more organic growth in demand for NVDA's products. NVDA's technicals remain largely unchanged from months ago. If the market decides to put an end to this AI frenzy, NVDA will likely post a monthly close below 208 and lead the market lower in the coming months. For bulls, the pullback is a low-risk entry. For bears, wait for a confirmed close below 208.

Tick Tock...