There has been little price action over the past few sessions. After last Tuesday's close, I warned against chasing the equity FOMO. Since then, NDX29742.604 and SPX7748.5 have gone nowhere. Both are wrestling with key resistance lines that triggered earlier reversals.

Semis remain the hottest part of the market and the key bellwether. Korean equities have continued to extend the rebound we called during the late-July capitulation, with EWY174.51 and SOXX546.97 following. For now, 7.1K on KOSPI remains the most important level to watch, while SOXX has spent several sessions wrestling with 530.

For this rally to extend, KOSPI first needs to break decisively above 7.1K. That should pull SOXX higher, but SOXX still needs to close above its recent swing high around 560. NDX also needs to post a weekly close above its descending trendline, while SPX needs to clear 7.8K. If all of these happen, the ST setup turns bullish and a fast push toward 8K on SPX comes into play. If semis fail to do the heavy lifting from here, the next leg is likely lower.

XAUUSD4384.345 bounced from our 3.9K-4K support and is testing the key 4.4K resistance for a fourth consecutive session. To open the door to further upside, we want to see a decisive break backed by clear volume expansion. Meanwhile, the 2Y has slipped below its ST trendline, while the 10Y and 30Y remain below their recent highs.

My Iran framework remains unchanged and this macro backdrop does not favor gold. Oil prices staying elevated for longer -> higher yields -> sustained pressure on gold.

Gold did surge alongside rising yields last week, which was the first sign that the usual relationship may be decoupling. For that tandem move to have any shelf life, gold must clear and hold 4.4K while long-end yields break and hold above their recent highs at roughly the same time.

We remain vigilant around these cross-asset relationships and key levels. Once again, there is no reason to chase any move. The market always gives you another opportunity to enter or re-enter.