ES1!6424 finally broke below channel support (6460) in the overnight session after Friday's selloff ended just above the support line. Now the 6460–6465 area has turned into resistance, while the next important support zone lies in the 6400–6380 range (for NQ1!23236.75, that corresponds to the low-23K area).

ES resistance levels: 6460-6465
ES support levels: 6422-6425,6402-6405,6380-6383

A break below 6422 opens the door to test the key support zone starting at 6405 and extending to 6380. I expect this zone (and the low-23K area in NQ) to be tested early this week. If ES breaks below this area, we should see a significant VIX spike, accompanied by sharp declines in the indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with NQ potentially extending to the 21.5K area. This is the move I've been anticipating for some time. I believe we're setting up for a strong September and October this year, and possibly a Santa rally starting from below 6K. As I see more convincing signals along the way, I'll likely become more active.