$USDJPY Based on the latest MOF report, Japan spent $70 billion defending the yen last month. Back in April-May 2024, it spent $60 billion, and in July 2024 it spent $35 billion. With oil still elevated, and Japan importing almost all of its oil, USDJPY has continued to grind higher despite the intervention.

I showed the uptrendline support on the day the first intervention occurred, and that support has held so far. As mentioned before, the MOF needs to buy yen aggressively enough to push USDJPY below 155 and sustain it there for a few days before the market can build downside momentum. Otherwise, the path of least resistance remains higher.

That said, as we approach 160, I would take partial profits and tighten risk. Japan remains one of the largest FX reserve holders in the world, and it still has both the firepower and willingness to intervene again.

Ultimately, unless we see the Strait return to normal and/or a BOJ rate hike, USDJPY should break above 160. But I would not chase into that level given the risk of another intervention.