We have seen orderly selling across the board since the market opened, with TRIN staying elevated.
I don't think it is in Iran's best interest to agree to this ceasefire deal, and I don't think they will unless both CN and Russia push very hard to force Iran to take it. I also don't think it is in China's or Russia's best interest to force Iran into such a deal. We have not seen participation from several Iran-backed military groups previously known for their capabilities. In other words, Iran has been holding back, and both its offensive and defensive responses have remained relatively restrained. That is why I think the U.S. has effectively lost this war. Iran has the ability to choke the U.S. stock market, Treasury yields, inflation, and Trump's approval ratings without even playing all of its cards. These are the only four things Trump truly cares about, and if he keeps fighting Iran, he will lose control of all of them. That is why he is so desperate to pull out. He will continue to portray this as a huge win, even though the U.S. has in fact lost the war.
ES1!6819.25 = 6850 (SPX6778.45 6800) is the line in the sand for bears. A clean break above it could invalidate my downside thesis. I also believe CL1!95.09 will grind back above 100 as the market realizes the war is far from over. Should my prediction prove correct, we will make a lower low below the recent low of 6350.