I rarely use SL in my own trades, but due to demand from many members I do post SL levels here, and all our trades are recorded off those levels (and if you have been here long enough, you know our stops get hunted by algos more often than not). Yesterday was one of those unfortunate days where we were stopped out at the top before the bloodbath started.

Many are now trying to explain the move, blaming a Fed speaker, crx-pto weakness, job data, retail fatigue, CTA and systematic flows, year end psychology, AI bubble narratives and so on. This is human nature. When people do not understand a move, they invent reasons. They assume news drives price action. They see a big swing and immediately hunt for a headline to attach to it on the way up and on the way down.

You should not be surprised by yesterday. We laid out this week's playbook last week: dump early in the week, rally into NVDA181.49 earnings, spike on the release, then dump in RTH. The market followed it almost tick for tick. Nobody is surprised when a mem-e coim pumps and dumps; they do not ask why because they already assume it is a scam. Now ask yourself what is the real difference between NVDA earnings pump and dump and a mem-e coim pump and dump tape. Where do you think the crx--pto guys learned the playbook? When every headline turned euphoric after NVDA print, it was obvious that yesterday would be one of the most liquid days to dump. That is why I advised caution before the open while everyone else thought the bubble would extend. News does not drive price action; price action drives the news. After NVDA earnings, headlines said AI is not a bubble and NVDA beats and guides higher. By yesterday's close, the same outlets suddenly discovered concerns over circular AI CAPEX, debt financing and CDS widening. Those concerns always existed. The market simply was not red yet.

We have discussed round tripping deals for two months because they matter. I do not pretend to fully understand AI any more than I understood dotcom business models back in the early 2000s. What I do understand is when the music stops, and the patterns are identical across cycles. In the dotcom era, telecom and cable firms were CAPEX magnets, massively overbuilding supply, then signing reciprocal capacity sharing deals so both sides could send invoices and inflate revenue. AOL paid vendors inflated prices only to receive the same money back as ad revenue. Global Crossing, Qwest and Enron swapped fibre capacity at inflated prices so everyone could book top line growth with no real demand. During the GFC, Lehman used Repo 105 to temporarily clean its balance sheet, and banks propped up CDO demand by having products buy each other. Different sectors, different decades, identical human behavior. Circular trades that dress up financials without changing real economics. That is exactly what we are witnessing in today's AI space.

Futs are bid following a Fed speaker trying to pump the market with hope of a December rate cut. Pre mkt, NVDA is showing relative weakness among the Mag 7 crowd, being the only one still in the red.
Now sentiment is pessimistic across the market, the exact opposite of yesterday. Note that despite yesterday's decline, NVDA still sits above its support line (see chart below). Remember that bulls must reclaim 25.3k by Friday to ensure the continuity of the bubble and bears must close below NQ1!24216.5 24.2-24.4K to poke this bubble further? The market has not closed and momentum leans to the upside in the ST. Do not be too hasty to call the top today, just as you should not have been too hasty to call the bottom yesterday.