XAUUSD·4340.395 Excerpt from desknote 08.05 on "If you have followed our charts closely, you know that 3.9-4.0K has been a solid support area for the past two months, so this rally is not surprising. The ideal scenario where gold being dumped to 3.7-3.8K did not materialize as oil cooled and yields came off their highs. For traders riding the rally, trail your stops. 4K is very likely the low, although there remains a small chance of a retest of 4K if Trump escalates. For this rally to evolve from a tactical bounce off support into a genuine bullish trend reversal and open the door to further upside, gold still needs to reclaim 4.4K Silver also needs to reclaim 64-65."

I expect gold and silver to clear their respective resistance levels at roughly the same time if the move resolves higher. As I wrote in Tactical Positioning | Week of 08.03, "My long-term view on gold has not changed. I still expect gold to outperform most asset classes over the next few years, with massive upside from here." Gold was trading around 4k at that time.

Technical

The first breakout came on July 21, when gold broke above the short-term descending trendline. After backtesting 4K, it took off and is now facing a major confluence at 4.4K, where the horizontal resistance from the beginning of the year meets the major ascending trendline from the 2025 rally. A sustained break above 4.4K would confirm the bullish trend reversal and open the door to further upside. A rejection at 4.4K would keep the confluence resistance intact and leave another test of 4K in play. A sustained break below 4K would put 3.9K back in focus.