XAUUSD4282.805 has pulled back below 4.4K, the resistance I flagged in last week's Tactical Positioning. My tactical long from the FOMC low was stopped out on a trailing stop for a nice profit. As warned, the sharp rise in yields has weighed on precious metals.

Gold's next major leg higher begins when it breaks its inverse relationship with yields and the dollar. We are not there yet. Silver has remained range-bound since early August.

Given the technical setup across precious metals, yields and oil, Trump has every incentive to deliver a series of TACOs ahead of the midterms to tame oil and yields. If he does, that should help gold and silver break above 4.4K and 69, respectively.

Aside from heavily manipulated oil futures prices, inflation prints also matter for precious metals. Next week's PCE release on September 30 is the one to watch.