After retracing from the trendline resistance we identified two weeks ago, SPX weakened further this week and found support around 7270, which lines up with NDX support at 28.6K, as expected. We saw a strong rebound from there. There is resistance around Friday’s high. If that gets taken out, I expect SPX to test 7.52K next week. A sustained breakout above that level opens the door to a potential double top around 7.65K, where I expect the next down leg to begin and take us toward 7.11K.

This rebound looks more like risk-sentiment recovery and short-covering than a real improvement in fundamentals. AI capex is still holding the tape together, but valuations and positioning remain stretched. With FOMC and Triple Witching ahead, volatility risk stays high. If inflation or rate expectations take back control, the next leg lower should start quickly.

NDX rebounded from 28.6K support, as expected. As long as that level holds, the immediate downside is contained. A break below would reopen the path toward the next leg lower.