Futures opened the week lower but recovered throughout the overnight session, filling the gap as we expected. Crude oil also filled the entire gap, as I outlined before Sunday's openhttps://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/e58dbb68-fe20-4e82-98a4-7e5bbea2f3a8.
Post OPEX days tend to have large intraday ranges due to smaller gamma constraints, so we may see significant intraday moves, primarily driven by moves in the energy complex, and more specifically crude oil. Higher CL1!74.41 prices could reduce the odds of a rate cut while increasing recession risks.
ES1!6029.75 is developing an inverse correlation with CL, which will probably trade around $75 until important news emerges. If the news is bullish for CL, the next major resistance sits at the $80 level as noted here https://www.meridianresearch.app/classic/notes/e58dbb68-fe20-4e82-98a4-7e5bbea2f3a8 if bearish, it may test $70.
CL sold off during the overnight session, which pushed ES into positive territory. However, as CL found support and began to rally, ES stalled and turned lower. This makes the CL market particularly important for today's session and in the ST.