BZ1! Brent bounced from the lower channel line before reversing around 80. A sustained close above 80 opens the door to the channel midpoint in the high 80s, followed by 90. On the flip side, a confirmed break below the lower channel line opens the door to the low 60s. I consider that unlikely given the pace of SPR drawdowns.

The SPR was drawn down by more than 6m barrels last week, with the four-week average still above 7m barrels per week. Only around 320m barrels remain, down almost 100m since the war began.

Trump is running out of time. He can invade, go full TACO and get down on his knees begging Iran to reopen Hormuz, or keep waiting and watch oil return to the previous generational resistance around 120.

Bears keep arguing that rising U.S. production, improving vessel traffic and shadow-fleet flows are enough to offset the supply shock. That is simply wrong. I have repeatedly said that control over Hormuz gives Tehran direct leverage over oil prices, a more useful weapon than a nuclear weapon. If pushed far enough, Iran can widen the chokepoint war through the Houthis at Bab el-Mandeb.

My read is that Iran still wants peace. Traffic recovered whenever a deal looked close, briefly in April and again over the past three weeks. But unless the U.S. agrees to Iran's terms, this could still turn into a years-long war, as I predicted when the war began.