A lot of people have been asking, and I've said it many times this week, don't short this week.

We'll have better opportunities next week. I'm expecting a swing top next week, not this week

Once I do short next week, the market will have to prove me wrong before I even think about a bottom.

So far, everything's playing out as expected in the bigger picture:

1. Weekly low is between low-to-mid 5100s.

2. Weekly close is green.

3. Swing high comes next week.

Ideally, we'll make a marginal higher high next week, and then the second leg of the crash begins. I'll go into more detail about that later, but for now, just know it's a B wave move to the 4500 area.

There are also levels that could truncate this move. If that happens, we might see a few more weeks of corrective upside. But I'll talk about those later.

ES1!5496.25 4h, rejected at the declining trendline resistance during Asia hours.