Chinese property stocks surged on speculation of new policy stimulus and on hopes for progress in China Vanke's debt restructuring talks. FOMC is widely expected to deliver a third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut to a 3.5 to 3.75 range at what will likely be a contentious December meeting. With the committee now two employment reports behind schedule, participants are even more uncertain than usual about what will be appropriate at the next meeting.

Money markets are pricing a 50% chance of a 25bp ECB rate increase by the end of 2026, as market continues to lean toward a tightening scenario after this week's hawkish comments from policymakers. Trump will soon launch a final round of interviews, pitting White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett against three other candidates to replace Powell. The decision to proceed with additional interviews highlights that Hassett's selection is not guaranteed, and his odds have slipped to 71 percent from 85 percent.

Another quiet session overnight, with markets in wait and see mode ahead of today's catalysts and equities generally range bound. On the earnings front, ORCL142.78 will be key given ongoing credit concerns and the latest bout of AI fatigue. Beyond the December Fed meeting, watch for next week's NFP and CPI prints.

ES1!7,804.102 made a new low below 6835 in the overnight session. The indices are entering the Fed volatility period near the lows of the week, and there is still plenty of downside room relative to the weekly expected range. For today there are two key downside pivots: the 6805 to 6810 area, and the 6780 to 6790 area. The latter is more important, as ES 6780 corresponds to the lower edge of the weekly expected range.